By Shariq Us Sabah
For more than half a century, the Assad dynasty ruled Syria with an iron grip, relying on brutal force and powerful alliances with Russia, Iran, and Hezbollah. Despite surviving a devastating civil war and regaining some international recognition, the regime fell in December 2024. This pivotal event has reshaped the Middle East and left the world grappling with its consequences.
The Stunning Fall
In a rapid and unexpected series of events, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a Syrian Islamist rebel group, toppled the Assad regime. Starting with the capture of Aleppo on November 30, HTS quickly advanced through Hama, Homs, and finally Damascus by December 7. The regime collapsed with minimal resistance, as Syria’s demoralized military dissolved under pressure. By the time HTS entered Damascus, Bashar al-Assad had fled to Moscow, leaving his former prime minister to formally transfer power.
Multiple factors contributed to this dramatic downfall. Israel’s decimation of Hezbollah’s leadership and missile stockpiles weakened Assad’s key allies. Iran’s regional influence waned, and strained relations between Ankara and Damascus over refugee issues eroded Turkey’s patience. Russia, preoccupied with its war in Ukraine, was unable to intervene. Meanwhile, widespread discontent among Syrians further undermined the regime’s fragile hold on power.
Regional Reverberations
The fall of Assad sent shockwaves across the Middle East, disrupting a precarious balance of power. Iran, which had relied on Syria and Hezbollah as part of its “forward defence” strategy, now finds itself vulnerable. Israel, emboldened by its success against Hezbollah, has intensified its strikes on Syrian targets. Russia’s abrupt withdrawal from its Syrian bases marks a major strategic setback, while Turkey emerges as a pivotal player.
However, new tensions are brewing. Clashes between Turkish-backed forces and the Kurdish-dominated Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in northern Syria threaten to ignite fresh conflicts. The possibility of an ISIS resurgence further compounds the region’s volatility.
Historical Shadows
The roots of Syria’s instability run deep, shaped by the legacies of empires that once dominated the region. The collapse of the Ottoman Empire after World War I left behind artificial borders and fragile state structures. European colonial powers exacerbated divisions, and Cold War superpowers used the region as a chessboard for their influence. These historical interventions left a legacy of coercion rather than legitimacy, which modern authoritarian regimes like Assad’s attempted to perpetuate.
HTS’s rise also underscores the limitations of authoritarian rule. While Assad maintained a veneer of stability, his brutal tactics alienated much of the population. The regime’s collapse exposes the cracks in governance systems that prioritize power over inclusive nation-building.
Challenges for a Fractured Nation
Within Syria, the jubilation over Assad’s fall is tempered by the challenges of rebuilding. HTS, designated a terrorist organization by the United Nations, United States etc, now faces the daunting task of governing a deeply divided country. While HTS leader Abu Mohammed al-Julani has adopted a conciliatory tone toward minorities and former regime officials, the group’s hardline reputation and authoritarian rule in Idlib raise questions about its long-term viability.
Millions of exiled Syrians are returning, only to find their homes looted or occupied. Power struggles among opposition factions, returning leaders, and armed groups are inevitable. The lack of external imperial control highlights the difficulties of forging stability in a region historically marked by fragmentation.
Global Stakes and Responses
Assad’s fall highlights the interconnected nature of the Middle East’s conflicts and the risks of neglecting them. For years, Western powers and Gulf states viewed the Assad regime as immovable. Its sudden collapse underscores the unpredictability of the region and the dangers of maintaining the status quo.
The international community must now play a critical role in shaping Syria’s future. Regional powers like Turkey and Israel are poised to exert influence, while global players such as the United States and China will need to recalibrate their strategies. Establishing a civilian government, fostering reconciliation, and initiating reconstruction will require sustained international support. Without it, the risk of Syria becoming a failed state looms large, with far-reaching consequences.
The Enduring Struggle for Order
The Syrian crisis reflects a broader struggle to establish order in the Middle East. Historically, imperial systems provided a framework for stability, albeit through coercion. Their collapse has left a vacuum that authoritarian regimes have struggled to fill. As digital technology and globalization reshape the region, new governance models must address historical grievances while meeting modern aspirations.
Hope Amid Uncertainty
Syria stands at a crossroads. The end of the Assad regime offers a chance for renewal, but the challenges ahead are immense. The international community’s willingness to support Syria’s recovery will determine whether the country can overcome its legacy of conflict and build a stable future. For now, Syrians—both at home and abroad—hold onto the fragile hope that this historic moment marks the beginning of a new chapter.
Shariq Us Sabah is a published writer, and is interested in the Middle East Regional and its foreign policy.
9 December 2024
Source: countercurrents.org