By Mark H. Gaffney
This summary is time-sensitive. The situation on the ground is changing from day to day, even from hour to hour. Things continue to evolve. Even so, I believe the outcome is almost foregone.
Although the world press is obsessed with the nuclear issue, it’s a red herring. Iran never developed nukes, does not want them, and does not need them to defeat Israel.
In recent days, numerous Israeli analysts on the Internet have been gloating about Israel’s surprise attack and the shocking decapitation of Iranian officials and military leaders. They are saying regime change is imminent, and are boasting that the Israeli Air Force’s (IAF)’s ongoing aerial campaign inside Iran is just hours away from finishing the job (“Breaking Iran’s back”, as one put it). Echoing these claims, Trump just posted that
“We (the US and Israel) now have control of the skies over Iran.”
Then, Trump went out of his tree, threatening Iran’s supreme leader Ali Khamenei with assassination.
But all of these analysts (and Trump) make the mistake of believing their own propaganda. They are ahead of their skis. This morning, video footage from Tehran showed that the Iranians have reconstituted at least a portion of their air defenses. And as the war develops it is likely the Iranians will continue to recover significant air defense, again and again if need be. We saw abundant evidence of this during the Ukraine War. The Israeli claim of total aerial supremacy, which our president trumpets, is bogus.
So, where is Tulsi Gabbard? Has the National Intelligence chief been sidelined? Why? What is going on? But that is another story…
It is true that Israel has succeeded in suppressing Iran’s missile launches with air power. In the last few days, the number of incoming missiles into Israel has decreased. According to some reports, this is because Iran is running out of missiles. But such a conclusion is also dubious. Why do I think so? In the first place, because there is no evidence for it — none that I have seen. And secondly, because Iran obviously prepared for this war over a very long time. According to professor Mirandi, Iran has at least 200 underground missile bases, all deeply buried under rugged mountain ranges. It took many years to construct these bases. The amount of excavation required must have been enormous. The bases represent a vast expenditure and a strong commitment to national survival. Would the country go to all of that trouble and expense, then scrimp on missile production? Hardly likely.
Yet, the Israelis claim Iran only has 2,000 missiles. Is this just another propaganda ploy by Mossad to deceive us? My view is that the Iranians anticipated a long war and probably squirreled away a considerable stockpile of missiles.
Of course, only time will tell.
There is no disputing that Iran’s missile bases are impregnable. They also happen to be spread out over an area the size of western Europe. Iran is a huge country. Strategic depth is one of the country’s most important assets.
Consider that during the First Gulf War, despite absolute control of the skies, the US military utterly failed to stop the Iraqis from launching their SCUDs. Indeed, over the course of that war the US failed to score even one confirmed kill of a mobile SCUD launcher. The US forces and Israel were very lucky the SCUDs were so inaccurate, hence ineffective. Afterward, the Pentagon buried this embarrassing detail in a footnote.
The Iranians are thorough and do not miss a thing. Rest assured, they studied the First Gulf War closely and learned valuable lessons.
Days ago, Israel (or someone) posted a video clip showing the destruction of an Iranian missile launcher. But this proves nothing. Iran’s launchers are well protected within mountain tunnels. When the coast is clear, they exit the tunnels, set up and fire their missiles, then quickly return to cover. Israel has approximately zero chance of making more than a minor dent in Iran’s missile capabilities.
Just to give some idea, during the recent fighting with Hezbollah, Israel failed to knock out Hezbollah’s underground tunnels in Lebanon that were concentrated in a much smaller area. Heck, the IDF couldn’t even take out the Hamas tunnel system in tiny Gaza that was dug out of sand. So I strongly doubt that the suppression of Iran’s missile launches will alter the outcome of the war. In my view the IAF can suppress the rate of launches but cannot stop them.
The bottom line is that Israel is vulnerable to missile attack. Iran can pound Israel to dust with its conventionally armed missiles. This is already happening. The missiles carry much larger warheads than what Israel can deliver inside Iran. So the damage is much greater. No doubt, for this reason, Israel is censoring its media and discouraging Israelis from posting evidence of these impacts on social media. Despite this, some of the personal videos and photos have been posted anyway and will make your jaw drop. Iran is kicking the Bejesus out of Israel.
Israel is also running out of intercepters. When the supply runs out Israel will be totally exposed. Nor can the US keep Israel supplied. According to various experts, US stocks are also low. Nor do we have the industrial capacity to produce more and deliver them, at least, not in time.
When the intercepters run out it won’t matter that Iran is unable to stage saturation attacks because their launches are being suppressed. Iran will still achieve the objective of destroying Israel’s capacity to make war. It will take a bit longer but the outcome will be the same. Within weeks (maybe a lot sooner) Tel Aviv will resemble Gaza.
Moreover, Iran has now unveiled its hypersonic missiles, which are unstoppable. One of them reportedly scored a direct hit against Mossad headquarters just north of Tel Aviv. Photos of the destruction of Mossad succinctly tell the story of the war, to date.
At some point the Israelis will be hard pressed and will have to decide whether or not to escalate to nukes. If they do all bets are off. Pakistan has announced it will respond with nukes if Israel resorts to them. North Korea might do the same. If Israel uses nukes it will be nuked in turn. But whether or not Israel goes nuclear, the outcome of the war will be the same. From the get go, there was no way Israel could win this conflict without destroying itself.
Israel won the opening round in stunning fashion because the aggressor always has the initial advantage. But Iran has now recovered. The whole world is watching as the rogue state of Israel commits national suicide. Even if the US directly enters the war on behalf of Israel this won’t change the outcome. Of course, Trump could double down, precipitating global thermonuclear war. Never underestimate the power of an imbecile to do the wrong thing.
This is where we the people come in! Trump must be impeached ASAP and removed from office before he plunges the world into nuclear war! Where is the peace movement?
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Mark H. Gaffney is the author of Dimona the Third Temple (1989), The 9/11 Mystery Plane and the Vanishing of America (2008), Black 9/11. Money, Motive and Technology (2016), and Deep History and the Ages of Man (2022).
19 June 2025
Source: globalresearch.ca