By Abdul Bari Atwan
The fact that the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Revolution, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, appeared three times recently in open and public meetings—chatting with ordinary Iranians—has sent a shocking message to U.S. President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. It demonstrates that Khamenei still has the first and final word in Iran and is not hiding in an underground bunker out of fear of assassination. Nor has he relinquished his leadership or spiritual authority, despite deliberate leaks and claims circulated by some Arab and Western media outlets as part of a psychological warfare campaign against Iran, coinciding with the U.S. military buildup in the region.
In contrast, top Israeli politicians and military officials are rushing to Washington, fearing that President Trump may back down from his aggressive threats and replace the military option with a peaceful, negotiated one—possibly reaching an accord that excludes Israeli demands and conditions. Israeli Chief of Staff General Eyal Zamir recently made a surprise visit to Washington, meeting senior U.S. military leaders and accompanied by top commanders, including the Israeli Air Force chief.
Frankly, Trump may have already lost this war—just as he lost face and credibility by failing to follow through on his threats or translate them into aggressive action on Iranian soil. Instead, he has resorted to sending mediators, the latest being his friend, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, to reopen negotiations with Iran. This comes after realizing that naval buildups and aircraft carrier deployments have failed to yield results or intimidate the Iranian leadership into surrender. Thus, he may be defeated either way: whether he goes to war or resorts to a political and diplomatic solution to the crisis.
The key to understanding this confusion—and perhaps the American retreat and postponement of military strikes—lies in the threatening message delivered by Ayatollah Ali Khamenei during his meetings with large crowds of Iranians on the anniversary of the death of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini. Most notably, he asserted that “Iran does not initiate wars, but if it is subjected to aggression, it will confront it with all its might and inflict devastating blows on the enemy.” More importantly, he warned that any such war would be a broad regional conflict—neither swift nor decisive nor short-lived, nor “clean,” meaning free of casualties.
A “regional war” would mean the participation of all countries, movements, and military factions aligned with the so-called “axis of resistance,” beginning with Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Popular Mobilization Forces in Iraq, and Ansar Allah in Yemen. American bases across the region—particularly on the Arabian side of the Gulf—would become legitimate targets, as would the more than 70,000 American soldiers stationed there.
What terrifies Israel most is not only Trump’s failure to proceed with aggression against Iran, but also the possibility of an agreement that contradicts Israel’s three core objectives.
First, preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons by halting all high-level uranium enrichment and compelling Tehran to surrender its existing stockpile—estimated at 480 kilograms—to a neutral country.
Second, stopping the development and deployment of Iranian missiles and dismantling all long-range systems, including hypersonic and multiple-warhead missiles capable of reaching deep into Israeli territory, particularly Haifa and Tel Aviv, as demonstrated during the 12-day war last June.
Third, completely ending all financial and missile support for resistance movements, especially Hezbollah in Lebanon, Iraqi factions within the Popular Mobilization Forces such as Harakat al-Nujaba, and Ansar Allah in Yemen.
A Reminder
It is worth recalling that the return of 5,000 American soldiers in coffins to Washington—killed by Iraqi resistance forces after the 2003 invasion—forced then-President Barack Obama to acknowledge defeat and withdraw 160,000 U.S. troops from Iraq in November 2011 in order to minimize losses. It is therefore no exaggeration to suggest that any aggression against Iran today could result in four times that number of American casualties, if not more, in the initial days alone. This is due to Iran’s resolve, advanced missile and drone capabilities, and other secret weapons that could deliver the biggest surprises of any future war.
Perhaps the recent decline in oil prices, the collapse of gold and silver values, and the dollar’s sharp depreciation in global financial markets are among the clearest indicators confirming this reality: the diminishing likelihood of war, Trump’s reluctant tilt toward diplomacy and negotiations, and his tacit admission of the impossibility of achieving a military victory without catastrophic losses or a prolonged regional war, as warned by Iran’s Supreme Leader. Time will tell.
This article is written by Abdul Bari Atwan, chief editor of the Arabic Al Rai Al Youm website, on 2 February 2026, on the eve of the increasing US military presence surrounding Iran. It is reprinted in Crossfirearabia.com.
4 February 2026
Source: countercurrents.org