By Akbar E Torbat
In May 2024, indirect talks between Iran and the US had been secretly begun in Muscat, Oman, under the Biden Administration. The issues discussed were Iran’s nuclear program and the Houthi attacks on US ships. However, the negotiations stalled after the death of President Ebrahim Raisi and his Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian in the helicopter crash on May 19, 2024. The two countries now have new administrations. In early March 2025, US President Donald Trump sent a threatening letter via UAE to Iran’s Leader, Ali Khamenei, giving him a two-month ultimatum to either negotiate or he would order a military attack on Iran. The exact content of the letter has not been made public. Based on what has been leaked to the media,[i] Trump proposed to negotiate a new nuclear deal but warned that if Iran rejected the offer and continued to push forward with its nuclear program, it would face military action.
Tehran’s Response to Trump’s Ultimatum
Iran responded to the US President’s letter on March 27, 2025, through the previous diplomatic channel Oman, instead of the UAE. Tehran responded to the letter in detail, which covered four points: Iran’s ballistic missiles, its defense capability, the nuclear issue, and the regional resistance forces. Iran emphasized that it intended to talk only about its nuclear issue. Tehran rejected any discussion about its defense capabilities and missile programs and said the resistance forces had nothing to do with Iran, the regional allies are independent countries and not subordinate to Iran’s order or policies. Regarding Trump’s threats, Iran responded it would vigorously defend its national interests and react to any possible military attacks without any limitations.
The Trump administration is now contemplating engaging with the mullahs to expand the US hegemony in the region. Taking advantage of Iran’s current weakness, Trump intends to secretly negotiate with the regime in exchange for supporting mullahs to remain in power. The same imperialist strategy of making a secret deal with leaders and getting concessions at the people’s expense.
The leaders of the Islamic Republic have concluded that in order to prevent the collapse of their theocratic regime and to confront popular uprisings, they should compromise with the “Great Satan”.
In April, the two countries agreed to begin a new round of negotiations. The Iranian and American negotiating teams were led by Iran’s Foreign Minister, Abbas Araghchi, and the US Special Representative for West Asia, Steve Witkoff. The first meeting was held on April 12, 2025, in Muscat with the mediation of the Sultanate of Oman, followed by the second meeting of “indirect talks” in Rome on April 19, and a technical meeting at the expert level on April 23. The third meeting was held on April 26 in Muscat. According to Araghchi, the negotiations were indirect in the form of written messages exchanged between the two teams. The Iranian negotiators included a few collaborators from the same team that signed the defunct JCPOA, which resulted in the partial destruction of Iran’s nuclear program and had no benefits for the people of Iran.
Concurrent Deadly Explosions
Concurrent with the third meeting on April 26, 2025, a major explosion occurred in Bandar Abbas, in Rajaee pier of the port, Iran’s biggest container hub, which shocked the nation. This explosion killed at least 70 people and injured more than 1000. The explosions occurred at several containers simultaneously, so it could not have been due to the presence of incendiary materials or chemicals for the IRGC’s missile manufacturing at three different locations. On April 28, 2025, the Interior Ministry said, “Determining the definitive cause of this incident requires a complete and comprehensive investigation of various aspects, which requires technical and laboratory processes.” According to ISNA, the imported cargo that exploded and caught fire at the port was not declared to Iran’s customs and was not under the custody of the customs. Mohammad Sarraj, a member of Iran’s parliament, said “The explosion was not accidental in any way, and there are clear signs of Israeli involvement. When explosions occur in four different locations, this indicates that explosives were already planted in the containers.” Moreover, on April 29, another explosion happened in a warehouse of a company called “Ava Nar Parsian” in Meimeh, near Esfahan, which resulted in the deaths of two people and the burn injuries to several others.
Israel wishes to destroy Iran’s nuclear facilities to prevent the country from enriching uranium for making nuclear bombs. Israel now wants to force the US to support its attack on Iran because Israel by itself is unable to make such an attack except in engaging in terrorist actions. In the past, Israel has used its fifth column to conduct many terrorist actions inside Iran. Examples are the terror of Iran’s nuclear scientists, planting a bomb at the Natanz nuclear facility, the assassination of Ismael Haniyeh in Tehran, and several other terrorist actions.
The regime in Tehran has not been transparent in informing the people about these incidents, including the crash of Raisi’s helicopter. That has led to outside sources and foreign media reporting on these incidents.
Iran is currently in a weak position since its allies in Lebanon and Syria have been smashed by Israel, its economy is dwindling as its national currency is collapsing, and inflation is soaring at a high rate. Mullahs are under pressure internally by the reformists and compradors to compromise with the US, which effectively means surrendering to the imperialist demands to give up on Iran’s nuclear program. At present, the compradors are spreading propaganda through social media that compromise with the US will result in improvements in Iranians’ livelihood. They say the price of the dollar will decline, imported goods will be cheaper, and foreign investment will bring jobs if a new nuclear deal is signed. However, these are nonsense propaganda; the problems of Iran’s economy are internal, and the economy could get worse as imported goods would bankrupt the domestic industries. The current multiple exchange rates are a source of income for the regime collaborators and their cronies, who receive lower-rate dollars and sell them for profit in the free market.
The US government, fully aware that the Islamic regime is in its worst possible situation, is pursuing a strategy to strengthen its hegemony in the region and wants to prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons in the future. The current tactic of the Trump administration is to negotiate at a time when the Islamic regime is in its weakest position. However, Trump’s threat is hollow; Iran has a strong military equipped with modern weapons, which makes it very costly for the US to attack the country. The US has already faced a severe national debt and trade deficit crisis, which makes it almost impossible to go to a major war with Iran. On April 24, 2024, the Daily Kayhan wrote that “since Trump took office, his prime characteristic is his addiction to exaggerated bragging and that he resembles a sheep wearing a wolf mask! If America had the slightest chance of success in its excessive bragging about a military attack on Iran, it would not hesitate for a moment and has repeatedly shown that it does not adhere to any legal standards, legal and humanitarian considerations, etc.”
Nonetheless, the top mullahs are now preparing their supporters to accept the concessions they are making. They have pressured the domestic media not to write anything against the negotiations. To deceive their fundamentalist followers, Ahmad Khatami, a senior cleric who previously did not have an optimistic view of negotiations with the United States, announced in his Friday prayer speech on April 18, “Accepting indirect negotiations is an act of following the advice of the Quran.” Also, on April 25, Leader Khamenei said, “Sometimes, leaders of a society make strategic decisions with foresight that appear to be against the wishes of their followers. For example, Imam Hassan, the second Shi’a Imam … was a symbol of opposition to the tyranny, hypocrisy, and discord that prevailed in the Islamic world at that time. However, the circumstances of that historical period required him to make a peace treaty with Muawiyah to preserve Islam.”
The regime’s leaders are trying to prevent the collapse of their antiquated theocratic regime. To suppress the progressive secular groups, they have expanded the regime’s constituencies by including parts of the internal opposition within the system and opening space for reformists and moderate fundamentalists to prevent the collapse of the antiquated regime.
Taking advantage of Iran’s weak clerical leadership and a naïve president, the US wishes to impose another disastrous nuclear agreement on Iran. If such an agreement is reached it will be very damaging for Iran. why should Iran accept 3.67% uranium enrichment level? Do the mullahs want to gain the support of the imperialists to stay in power? They have no right to surrender Iran’s nuclear deterrence again. Nonetheless, Iran’s preferred option is to preserve its nuclear deterrence and in case of military action against it, to exit the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT).
Akbar E Torbat is the author of “Politics of Oil and Nuclear Technology in Iran,” Palgrave Macmillan (2020). Farsi translation of the book is available here.
2 May 2025
Source: countercurrents.org