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By Shariq Us Sabah

For more than half a century, the Assad dynasty ruled Syria with an iron grip, relying on brutal force and powerful alliances with Russia, Iran, and Hezbollah. Despite surviving a devastating civil war and regaining some international recognition, the regime fell in December 2024. This pivotal event has reshaped the Middle East and left the world grappling with its consequences.

The Stunning Fall

In a rapid and unexpected series of events, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a Syrian Islamist rebel group, toppled the Assad regime. Starting with the capture of Aleppo on November 30, HTS quickly advanced through Hama, Homs, and finally Damascus by December 7. The regime collapsed with minimal resistance, as Syria’s demoralized military dissolved under pressure. By the time HTS entered Damascus, Bashar al-Assad had fled to Moscow, leaving his former prime minister to formally transfer power.

Multiple factors contributed to this dramatic downfall. Israel’s decimation of Hezbollah’s leadership and missile stockpiles weakened Assad’s key allies. Iran’s regional influence waned, and strained relations between Ankara and Damascus over refugee issues eroded Turkey’s patience. Russia, preoccupied with its war in Ukraine, was unable to intervene. Meanwhile, widespread discontent among Syrians further undermined the regime’s fragile hold on power.

Regional Reverberations

The fall of Assad sent shockwaves across the Middle East, disrupting a precarious balance of power. Iran, which had relied on Syria and Hezbollah as part of its “forward defence” strategy, now finds itself vulnerable. Israel, emboldened by its success against Hezbollah, has intensified its strikes on Syrian targets. Russia’s abrupt withdrawal from its Syrian bases marks a major strategic setback, while Turkey emerges as a pivotal player.

However, new tensions are brewing. Clashes between Turkish-backed forces and the Kurdish-dominated Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in northern Syria threaten to ignite fresh conflicts. The possibility of an ISIS resurgence further compounds the region’s volatility.

Historical Shadows

The roots of Syria’s instability run deep, shaped by the legacies of empires that once dominated the region. The collapse of the Ottoman Empire after World War I left behind artificial borders and fragile state structures. European colonial powers exacerbated divisions, and Cold War superpowers used the region as a chessboard for their influence. These historical interventions left a legacy of coercion rather than legitimacy, which modern authoritarian regimes like Assad’s attempted to perpetuate.

HTS’s rise also underscores the limitations of authoritarian rule. While Assad maintained a veneer of stability, his brutal tactics alienated much of the population. The regime’s collapse exposes the cracks in governance systems that prioritize power over inclusive nation-building.

Challenges for a Fractured Nation

Within Syria, the jubilation over Assad’s fall is tempered by the challenges of rebuilding. HTS, designated a terrorist organization by the United Nations, United States etc, now faces the daunting task of governing a deeply divided country. While HTS leader Abu Mohammed al-Julani has adopted a conciliatory tone toward minorities and former regime officials, the group’s hardline reputation and authoritarian rule in Idlib raise questions about its long-term viability.

Millions of exiled Syrians are returning, only to find their homes looted or occupied. Power struggles among opposition factions, returning leaders, and armed groups are inevitable. The lack of external imperial control highlights the difficulties of forging stability in a region historically marked by fragmentation.

Global Stakes and Responses

Assad’s fall highlights the interconnected nature of the Middle East’s conflicts and the risks of neglecting them. For years, Western powers and Gulf states viewed the Assad regime as immovable. Its sudden collapse underscores the unpredictability of the region and the dangers of maintaining the status quo.

The international community must now play a critical role in shaping Syria’s future. Regional powers like Turkey and Israel are poised to exert influence, while global players such as the United States and China will need to recalibrate their strategies. Establishing a civilian government, fostering reconciliation, and initiating reconstruction will require sustained international support. Without it, the risk of Syria becoming a failed state looms large, with far-reaching consequences.

The Enduring Struggle for Order

The Syrian crisis reflects a broader struggle to establish order in the Middle East. Historically, imperial systems provided a framework for stability, albeit through coercion. Their collapse has left a vacuum that authoritarian regimes have struggled to fill. As digital technology and globalization reshape the region, new governance models must address historical grievances while meeting modern aspirations.

Hope Amid Uncertainty

Syria stands at a crossroads. The end of the Assad regime offers a chance for renewal, but the challenges ahead are immense. The international community’s willingness to support Syria’s recovery will determine whether the country can overcome its legacy of conflict and build a stable future. For now, Syrians—both at home and abroad—hold onto the fragile hope that this historic moment marks the beginning of a new chapter.

Shariq Us Sabah is a published writer, and is interested in the Middle East Regional and its foreign policy.

9 December 2024

Source: countercurrents.org

By Ali Mamouri

The swift and unexpected fall of the Syrian capital, Damascus, to Sunni opposition forces marks a pivotal moment in the modern history of the Middle East.

Bashar al-Assad’s regime had withstood more than a decade of uprisings, civil war and international sanctions since the onset of widespread protests in 2011. Yet, it collapsed in a remarkably short period of time.

This sudden turn of events, with the opposition advancing without significant battles or resistance, has left regional powers scrambling to assess the fallout and its broader implications.

This dramatic development signals a reshuffling of power dynamics in the region. It also raises questions about Syria’s future and the role of its neighbours and global stakeholders in managing the post-Assad landscape.

What does the future hold for Syria?

With the collapse of the Assad regime, Syria now finds itself fragmented and divided among three dominant factions, each with external backers and distinct goals:

1. Syrian opposition forces, led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham: These groups, supported by Turkey, now control central Syria, extending from the northern border with Turkey to the southern border with Jordan.

Although they share a common religious identity, the Sunni factions have a history of internal conflicts, which could hinder their ability to form a cohesive government or maintain long-term stability.

The opposition forces range from former jihadists coming from Islamic State and al-Qaeda to secular groups such as the Syrian National Army, which split from Assad’s army after the 2011 uprising.

2. Kurdish forces: The Kurdish groups control territory in northeastern Syria, bordering Turkey in the north and Iraq in the east. They continue to receive support from the United States, which has established military bases in the area. This support risks escalating tensions with Turkey, which views Kurdish empowerment as a threat to its territorial integrity.

3. Alawite forces: Pro-Assad Alawite factions, primarily situated in the coastal regions of western Syria, maintain strong ties with Iran, Iraq and Lebanon’s Hezbollah militant group. These areas could serve as a stronghold for remnants of Assad-aligned groups after the opposition’s takeover, perpetuating sectarian divides.

The stark divisions among these groups, combined with the absence of a mutually acceptable mediator, suggest that Syria may now face prolonged instability and conflict.

How will this impact the region?

The swift fall of the Assad regime has profound implications for the major players in the Middle East.

The Sunni rebel forces, with strong Turkish backing, capitalised on a moment of vulnerability in Syria. The Assad regime’s allies were preoccupied — Russia with its ongoing war in Ukraine, and Iran and its proxies with their ongoing conflict with Israel. This provided a strategic opportunity for the rebels to advance swiftly across Syria to the capital, Damascus.

Turkey already effectively controls a strip of territory in northern Syria, where its military has been fighting Syrian Kurdish forces. Now, with the victory of its Syrian opposition allies, Turkey is expected to expand its political and military influence in Syria, causing more challenges for the Kurdish minority fighting for its autonomy.

Israel is also in a strategically better position. The fall of Assad disrupts the so-called “axis of resistance”, comprised of Iran, Syria and Tehran’s proxy groups like Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Gaza and the Houthi rebels in Yemen.

Iran’s critical military supply lines to Hezbollah will likely be severed, isolating the militant group and likely weakening it even further.

Additionally, the fragmentation of Syria into ethnic and religious factions could diminish the regional focus on Israel, providing space for it to pursue its broader strategic goals. After Israel agreed to a ceasefire with Hezbollah last month, for example, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu emphasised a shift in focus to countering the “Iranian threat”.

Iran, meanwhile, has the most to lose. Assad was a crucial ally in Iran’s regional proxy network. And the collapse of his government follows the significant damage that Israel has already inflicted on its other partners, Hamas and Hezbollah. Iran’s regional influence has now been severely diminished, leaving it more vulnerable to direct conflict with Israel.

The fragmentation of Syria also poses significant security risks to its neighbouring countries – Turkey, Iraq, Jordan and Lebanon. Refugee flows, cross-border violence and sectarian tensions are likely to escalate. Turkey is already hosting more than 3 million Syrian refugees – many of whom it hopes will return home now that Assad’s government is gone.

For Iraq and Lebanon, this instability could exacerbate their fragile political and economic situations. The Balkanisation of Syria along ethnic and religious lines could encourage other groups in the region to rebel against governments in the pursuit of their own autonomy. This risks entrenching divisions and prolonging conflict across the region.

While many Syrians have celebrated Assad’s fall, it remains to be seen whether their lives will improve much. With the absence of a unified and internationally recognised government in Syria, sanctions are unlikely to be lifted. This will further strain an already devastated Syrian economy, deepening the humanitarian crisis and potentially fuelling extremism.

Ali Mamouri is a Research Fellow, Middle East Studies, Deakin University

9 December 2024

Source: countercurrents.org

By Abdel Bari Atwan

Events are rapidly unfolding before after the fall of the Syrian capital, Damascus, into the hands of the armed opposition forces that entered it without resistance because the Syrian army, under orders from its supreme commander, decided not to resort to bloody confrontations to prevent bloodshed and accept defeat in the face of a tripartite aggression well-planned in the dark rooms of Washington, Ankara and Tel Aviv.

The Russian authorities’ announcement, Sunday, of the arrival of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and his family to Moscow and granting them political asylum, confirms that the sudden developments currently taking place may be the tip of the iceberg.

There may be many surprises to come on all levels, as Syria is a jungle of weapons, and it is unlikely that the sudden surrender is just a maneuver, just like what happened in Iraq after the collapse of the Iraqi army in the face of the American invasion, and the goal now is to reposition, bow to the storm, and prepare to resist the occupation.

The fall of Damascus is a fatal stab to Russia and its leadership, which the new authority in Syria has no affection for, and sees it as a strategic partner of the isolated Syrian regime. Its warplanes have not stopped bombing Idlib, Aleppo, Hama and Homs, and this Russian airstrike played a major role in the Syrian Arab Army regaining most of the cities and villages that were seized by the opposition forces supported by America, Europe and Turkey.

We do not know what President Bashar al-Assad’s plans are in the coming period. Will he resort to calm and withdraw from political work, in compliance with the conditions of political asylum, or will he make Moscow a base to manage a resistance that he will form and lead from his new exile.

News circulated in the past few days that countries supporting the deposed Syrian president, led by Russia, suggested he form a government in exile to confirm his non-recognition of the new government that may be formed in the coming few days to run the country, avoid a political vacuum, and prepare for holding general elections.

We do not know the extent of the accuracy of this news, and perhaps it is too early to try to extrapolate what events are coming in Syria, as only one day has passed since the fall of Damascus and President Assad’s flight to Moscow and his granting of political asylum.

However, what can be pointed out is that the picture seems blurry in Syria at the present time, as Damascus and the major Syrian cities have been exposed to a war led by armed Syrian opposition factions on behalf of America, Turkey and other Arab countries, unlike the direct American war in Iraq in 2003, in which more than 160,000 American soldiers participated, and Paul Bremer was installed as military governor of Iraq in a transitional phase.

Unfortunately, we can’t disagree with Benjamin Netanyahu when he said: “The fall of Damascus and the collapse of the ruling regime there is considered a historic day and a great victory for Israel.”

Damascus is the crown jewel of the axis of resistance, the main supporter of the Palestinian cause, and the stubborn opponent of normalization. The question remains: Will Netanyahu’s celebrations of this fall last long? We leave the answer to the coming days and months.

Abdel Bari Atwan is the Chief Editor of Al Rai Al Youm and the above opinion is reprinted in www.crossfirearabia.com

9 December 2024

Source: countercurrents.org

By Rick Sterling

My friend lives in Damascus. I will call him Qusay to protect his identity. Qusay was born and grew up in Aleppo and still has family there. He is a high-level translator and university professor. From his family he learned what unfolded in Aleppo following the invasion beginning November 27. He personally witnessed events in Damascus where he still is. The following is what Qusay told me about events in Syria over the past 12 days. 

Overthrow of Aleppo

The march and overthrow of Aleppo was done by Syrian and many foreign fighters supplied and backed by Turkish intelligence and military. Syrian military communications were jammed using electronic warfare. The invaders used drones for surveilling and attacking Syria forces. The jihadists were trained in the use of drones by NATO-funded Ukrainians. Turkey and other NATO forces supplied the drones and all sorts of other advanced weaponry. They had tanks in addition to machine gun mounted trucks and other vehicles.  

The jihadists were carefully prepared by Turkish / US forces. They sent individuals to talk with influential people in the Aleppo community, promising payments of hundreds of dollars and other rewards in exchange for complicity or no opposition. Doctors, engineers and public officials were contacted personally. It is highly likely that military officials were also contacted. When the invasion supported by the Turkish military happened starting November 27, the Syrian defense of Aleppo collapsed. 

Qusay thinks the Syrian army was exhausted from 13 years of war plus constant attacks from Israeli jets they have been helpless to stop. They, like all Syrian society, have been impoverished by intense sanctions from the West coupled with the theft of essential national resources. The primary wheat growing and oil and gas producing regions have been occupied by US forces and their Kurdish proxies since 2016.  As a result, most Syrians only have electricity a few hours per day and have trouble putting food on the table. Before the “dirty war” began in 2011, Syria was self sufficient in food and energy. Syria had no national debt and Syrians enjoyed free health care and education.

The invaders in Aleppo tried to assuage the public that they are not like the “rebels” of old who persecuted and killed Christians and Alawi and enforced sharia law. In Aleppo, they provided free bread for families and quickly set up electronic communications hubs so that everyone might have internet and also so they could broadcast their messages. 

Collapse in Damascus 

While the northern invading army went on to central Syria, a different attacking group worked from the south. First they attacked and took over Deraa on the Jordan border, then Suweida. Then they advanced to Damascus. It seems there were agreements in advance because there was little military defense of the capital of Syria. President Assad relinquished power and departed for Moscow. 

On Day One (Sunday) after the collapse of Bashar’s government, looting and chaos erupted immediately. People were terrified and afraid to go out of their homes.  Government other buildings were looted and ransacked. Universities were broken into and computers and lab equipment stolen.The Central Bank of Syria and other institutions was vandalized.

Many people have replaced the flag of Syria with the “revolution” flag out of fear.  

Now, on Day Two, the situation is better. There is more security. Many stores are still closed but they are opening one by one. The former PM and cabinet have urged people to go back to work.  

The titular head of the new government is Abu Mohammed al Jolani. He has publicly stated women are free to wear what they want and there will be no retaliation or revenge attacks. The Syrian Prime Minister has been replaced with Mohamad al Bashir. The Jolani government seems to be in control throughout most of the country, including Latakia. 

A huge concern now is the ongoing Israeli attacks and bombings. Israel has destroyed nearly all military buildings in Damascus area while Israeli drones are constantly overhead. Queneitra in the far south has been occupied by the Zionist army.  Netanyahu and Biden have both taken “credit” for the long dirty war in Syria.  

Qusay says, 

“Suddenly everything is lost…. Syrians are used to relying on the army to defend our country. But there is no more defense. Israel is taking overy Syrian land. Turkey is taking over another part of Syria. ….. We don’t know where Syria is going.” 

Some Syrians think they will have a better life.  Others believe this is an illusion and there are dark days ahead. Last weekend Qusay’s family had their bags packed and were ready to leave. But there is no place to go. Both Jordan and Lebanon have closed their borders. 

*

Rick Sterling is an independent journalist based in norther California.

11 December 2024

Source: globalresearch.ca

By Michael Whitney

The black flag of Salafist Islam has been raised over Damascus. ISIS/Al Qaeda has won…. The same terrorists who attacked us on 9/11. Whom we waged war against in Afghanistan, Iraq, and elsewhere. Losing thousands of our servicemen and women. Costing trillions of dollars. They won. And we helped them. America stands for nothing. …” —Scott Ritter@RealScottRitter

General Mike Flynn, the former head of the Pentagon’s Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA), warned his colleagues in the Obama administration, that supporting terrorist groups to prosecute proxy wars on Washington’s behalf, was a risky business that would eventually backfire leading to the establishment of ‘a Salafist principality in Syria.’ That warning has now become a reality.

Of the 50-or-so mainstream articles on the fall of the Syrian government, not one bothered to mention the fact that the Sunni militia that toppled Bashar al-Assad is currently on the US State Department’s list of terrorist organizations. Nor did they mention that the same jihadist group is on the United Nations list of terrorist organizations. Nor did they mention that the leader of the group—Abu Mohammad al-Jolani—has a $10 million bounty on his head offered by the US government. None of this information was reported to the public because the media does not want the American people to know that Washington just helped install a terrorist regime at the center of the Middle East. But that’s what’s really going on.

And it’s even worse than it looks because, ultimately, the 13-year-old Syrian campaign is not really aimed at Syria, but Iran. Syria is just the last obstacle on the path to Tehran, but Tehran is the icing on the cake. Crush Iran and Israel takes the ‘top spot’ in the Middle East; it becomes the regional hegemon overnight. Meanwhile—Uncle Sam gains access to the pipeline corridors it has sought for over 2 decades, corridors that will transport natural gas from Qatar to the Mediterranean and then onward to markets in Europe. The gas will be provided by a US puppet, extracted by western oil companies, sold in US Dollars, and used to maintain a stranglehold on European politics. At the same time, all other competitors will be either sanctioned, sabotaged or excluded entirely. (Nordstream)

Most people are unaware of how pipeline politics have shaped events in Syria making the country a target for US aggression. But from 1949 until today, US intelligence services have tried repeatedly to topple the leader of the Syrian government in order to oversee and control a Trans-Arabian Pipeline “intended to connect the oil fields of Saudi Arabia to the ports of Lebanon via Syria.” Robert F Kennedy summed it up in a brilliant article he wrote more than a decade ago:

The CIA began its active meddling in Syria in 1949—barely a year after the agency’s creation. Syrian patriots had declared war on the Nazis, expelled their Vichy French colonial rulers and crafted a fragile secularist democracy based on the American model. But in March 1949, Syria’s democratically elected president, Shukri-al-Quwatli, hesitated to approve the Trans-Arabian Pipeline, an American project intended to connect the oil fields of Saudi Arabia to the ports of Lebanon via Syria. In his book, Legacy of Ashes, CIA historian Tim Weiner recounts that i n retaliation for Al-Quwatli’s lack of enthusiasm for the U.S. pipeline, the CIA engineered a coup replacing al-Quwatli with the CIA’s handpicked dictator, a convicted swindler named Husni al-Za’im. Al-Za’im barely had time to dissolve parliament and approve the American pipeline before his countrymen deposed him, four and a half months into his regime. Why the Arabs Don’t Want Us in Syria,Robert Kennedy, Politico

Washington’s long history of covert action against Syria is well documented in Kennedy’s piece which also pinpoints the precise moment when the US decided it would do ‘whatever it takes’ to topple the regime and replace it with a compliant flunky. Here’s Kennedy:

… our war against Bashar Assad did not begin with the peaceful civil protests of the Arab Spring in 2011. Instead it began in 2000, when Qatar proposed to construct a $10 billion, 1,500 kilometer pipeline through Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Syria and Turkey. Qatar shares with Iran the South Pars/North Dome gas field, the world’s richest natural gas repository. The international trade embargo until recently prohibited Iran from selling gas abroad. Meanwhile, Qatar’s gas can reach European markets only if it is liquefied and shipped by sea, a route that restricts volume and dramatically raises costs. The proposed pipeline would have linked Qatar directly to European energy markets via distribution terminals in Turkey, which would pocket rich transit fees. The Qatar/Turkey pipeline would give the Sunni kingdoms of the Persian Gulf decisive domination of world natural gas markets and strengthen Qatar, America’s closest ally in the Arab world. Qatar hosts two massive American military bases and the U.S. Central Command’s Mideast headquarters. Why the Arabs Don’t Want Us in Syria, Robert Kennedy, Politico

This helps to explain why Syria factors so largely in US geopolitical plans to control critical resources as a way to preserve the dominance of the dollar and to contain China’s explosive economic growth. The US is determined to control the vast resources of the Middle East to maintain its privileged position in the global order. Here’s more:

Assad further enraged the Gulf’s Sunni monarchs by endorsing a Russian-approved “Islamic pipeline” running from Iran’s side of the gas field through Syria and to the ports of Lebanon. The Islamic pipeline would make Shiite Iran, not Sunni Qatar, the principal supplier to the European energy market and dramatically increase Tehran’s influence in the Middle East and the world. Israel also was understandably determined to derail the Islamic pipeline, which would enrich Iran and Syria and presumably strengthen their proxies, Hezbollah and Hamas.

Secret cables and reports by the U.S., Saudi and Israeli intelligence agencies indicate that the moment Assad rejected the Qatari pipeline, military and intelligence planners quickly arrived at the consensus that fomenting a Sunni uprising in Syria to overthrow the uncooperative Bashar Assad was a feasible path to achieving the shared objective of completing the Qatar/Turkey gas link. In 2009, according to WikiLeaks, soon after Bashar Assad rejected the Qatar pipeline, the CIA began funding opposition groups in Syria. It is important to note that this was well before the Arab Spring-engendered uprising against Assad. Why the Arabs Don’t Want Us in Syria, Robert Kennedy, Politico

So, once Assad agreed to the “Islamic pipeline”, his goose was cooked.Washington was never going to let that happen. As we said earlier, Washington is fully committed to controlling critical resources in the Middle East as a way to contain China and maintain its increasingly tenuous grip on global power. The Abraham Accords also factor into this geopolitical strategy by normalizing relations between Israel and its Islamic neighbors (primarily Saudi Arabia) in order to create an economic corridor that allows for the rapid transport of manufactured goods from India to Europe. Washington sees economic integration in the region as the principle means for preserving its global primacy. That doesn’t mean that Israel’s ambitions to dominate the Middle East wasn’t the driving force behind the war in Syria and the ousting of Assad. It was, but there were other considerations as well, geopolitical considerations.

So, you can see why the US wanted to install a government that was more receptive to Washington’s interests. What’s hard to understand, however, is how this is all supposed to work. Assad is gone and al Qaida won. We know that. Now what?

I can’t imagine that any of the young men who have spent the last decade of their lives galivanting around the dessert in 4x4s blasting anything that moves, know a lot about running a government. So, who’s going to run the agencies, pay the workers and perform the mundane clerical tasks that that are expected of every government? Who’s going to run the schools, fix the roads, and police the streets? Of course, maybe Mr. al-Jawlani has talents we don’t know about and will miraculously rise to the occasion making sure the agencies are fully staffed and the trains run on time, but that seems extremely unlikely. What is more probable is that the architects of this dreadful fiasco plan to run the country and its flailing economy into the ground, greatly intensifying the suffering of ordinary working people, increasing the public dissatisfaction until an attempt is made to violently overthrow the new regime.

We could be wrong. There is a remote chance that the Sunni militants in HTS will address the needs of the people and lead them to a prosperous and secure future. But we all know that is not going to happen. This regime is merely a tool in the hands of foreign interests who want to seize as much of Syria’s natural wealth as possible while eliminating a potential threat to Israel’s relentless expansion. In short, the neocon powerbrokers who fomented this evil strategy did so without the slightest regard for the safety or well-being of any of the 23 million people who currently call Syria home. Their lives just don’t matter.

What does matter (to Tel Aviv and Washington) is having a proxy army that is willing to do its bidding in an upcoming war with Iran. That matters. And that is why the US and Turkey use “contract” soldiers who will do what they are told in exchange for the lavish salaries they receive. HTS is paid for its services, and those services are going to involve the launching of attacks on Iran and Hezbollah. So, this is NOT an experiment in new forms of governance. Hayat Tahrir al-Sham doesn’t have the slightest interest in running the government. Syria is merely a base of operations for launching attacks on Iran and Hezbollah. That’s it. That’s what they’re paid to do, make war.

It’s all about geography, gas, USD and Israel. And of those four, Israel looms largest.

*

Michael Whitney is a renowned geopolitical and social analyst based in Washington State.

10 December 2024

Source: globalresearch.ca

By BADIL Resource Center for Palestinian Residency and Refugee Rights

On 10 December 1948, the Universal Declaration of Human Rights (UDHR) was adopted, setting forth the fundamental rights afforded to individuals under international law, including the right to return. The very next day, the UN General Assembly adopted Resolution 194 , affirming Palestinian refugees and internally displaced persons’ right to reparation (return to their homes, property restitution, compensation and socio-economic rehabilitation). 76 years on, the Palestinian people are not only denied the fulfillment of these rights, but face a far-reaching dismantlement campaign against their very refugee status and the UN agency mandated to protect their basic rights and dignity, UNRWA. This threat to the Palestinian refugee question and the rights of Palestine refugees enshrined under international law, magnified by the ongoing genocide in the Gaza Strip, has been enabled by complicit colonial states and the impunity they have conferred on “Israel”, as well as the inaction of other duty bearers.

The UDHR and UNGA Resolution 194 were both discussed and written during the 1948 Nakba by the same states’ representatives, which ultimately influenced the drafting of the documents. This included Article 13(2) of the UDHR which provided that “[e]veryone has the right to leave any country, including his own, and to return to his country” and Resolution 194 which reaffirms Palestine refugees’ fundamental right to reparations, including return to their original homes. Despite the impact of Palestinian forcible displacement on the letter of Article 13(2) of the UDHR, their right of return is yet to be realized.

Beyond that, Palestinians continue to face a systematic policy of forced displacement and transfer at the hands of the Israeli colonial-apartheid regime as part of the ongoing Nakba. In the Gaza Strip, forced displacement has been used by “Israel” as a tool in its genocide , as Palestinians face the biggest wave of displacement since 1948. The Israeli regime’s “evacuation” orders and relentless bombing campaign have forcibly displaced 1.9 Palestinians, the majority of whom are 1948 refugees. Just as Zionist militias did in the 1948 Nakba, the Israeli regime has been destroying homes, hospitals, schools, bakeries, farms and all semblance of life, ensuring that the Gaza Strip is unlivable and that internally displaced persons (IDPs) could not return to their homes. In the West Bank, since the launch of the Israeli genocide in October 2023, more than 6,300 Palestinians have been forcibly displaced from their homes.

One of the most important safeguards of the Palestinian refugee issue is UNRWA, a UN agency mandated with providing aid and services to Palestinian refugees until the implementation of Resolution 194. Since the beginning of the genocide, Israel has been critically escalating its campaign to dismantle and replace UNRWA . In October 2024, the Israeli Knesset passed two laws that will ultimately result in the end of UNRWA’s existence and operations in Mandatory Palestine, and are expected to come into effect in January 2025. The Israeli regime’s attacks on the Agency have also manifested materially, with 251 UNRWA staff members having been killed and 190 of its installations damaged. All of this serves Israel’s goals to carry out its genocide, forcibly displace those who it has not killed outside the Gaza Strip, and ultimately eliminate UNRWA and the Palestinian refugee question.

Amid the ongoing Nakba , a genocide in the Gaza Strip, and in the face of a dismantlement campaign against a UN-mandated agency, states have done nothing but pay lip service to the UN and the principles enshrined in the UDHR. Not only have Western colonial states refused to apply international law and UN accountability mechanisms to “Israel”, but they also have continuously aided and abetted “Israel’s” forcible transfer laws, policies and practices, thereby entrenching its colonial-apartheid regime over the Palestinian people. As “Israel” passed the law banning UNRWA, states were only satisfied with voicing their “concern” and condemnations. States’ inaction and complicity in the face of the widening protection gap for Palestinian refugees contradicts all legal and moral obligations they must uphold. The threat against UNRWA and the Palestinian refugee question only increases with the re-election of Trump, as the implementation of his vision, per the “Deal of the Century” , would include the transfer of UNRWA tasks and services to host countries and unmandated international organizations, and the denial of Palestine refugees’ right to return and reparations.

BADIL calls on the international community—states, international organizations, including the UN, as well as non-profits and the private sector—to take decisive, concrete actions to impose a ceasefire in Gaza, protect UNRWA and Palestinian refugee and IDP rights, and until the decolonization of Palestine. This includes recognizing “Israel” as a colonial-apartheid regime, providing support to the Palestinian liberation movement, and implementing the full spectrum of sanctions against “Israel”, i.e., economic, political, and military. BADIL urges the Palestinian leadership, political forces and organizations to reject and criminalize the replacement of UNRWA. As for the solidarity movement, we reiterate the importance of escalating your actions to pressure your states to enforce a ceasefire, end their complicity in “Israel’s” genocide, and implement UN Resolution 194.

11 December 2024

BADIL Resource Center for Palestinian Residency and Refugee Rights is an independent, human rights non-profit organization committed to defend and promote the rights of Palestinian refugees and internally displaced persons.

By Seyed Hossein Mousavian

The Baathist system in Syria, after nearly 60 years of rule, has been overthrown and Bashar al-Assad has fled to Moscow.

Syria stood alongside Iran during its invasion by Saddam Hussein, and Iran, in turn, stood with the Syrian and Iraqi governments during the assault by the Islamic State (IS) group and al-Qaeda on Syria and Iraq from 2011 to 2017.

The alliance of Russia, Iran and the Axis of Resistance led to the defeat of militant groups and the preservation of the sovereignty of these two Arab countries.

However, at the same time, Assad’s government had no alignment with democracy, and western and Arab leaders were fearful and angry about the extensive presence and influence of Iran and Russia in Syria. In any case, the overthrow of the Syrian political system has created a major shift in the region’s geopolitics.

In the short term, Iran, Russia, Iraq and the Axis of Resistance will be the main losers from Assad’s downfall.

The collapse of the Assad government will be a major blow to the axis, weakening Iran’s geopolitical influence in the region.

Syria has been the only land route for the supply and transfer of weapons to Hezbollah, and cutting off this route not only creates a strategic challenge for Hezbollah but also weakens Iran’s leverage in the Palestinian issue.

Moreover, the potential spread of insecurity to Iraq and Iran – and the weakening of Iran’s diplomatic support – are significant consequences for Iran and the axis.

Turkey main winner

The fall of the Syrian government could also pose threats to Iraq’s security, both in terms of the Kurdish region and from the aspirations of extremist groups for Sunni-majority areas in the country, as well as the potential activation of IS sleeper cells.

In the short term, Israel might find an opportunity to further weaken Hezbollah and the axis in the entire region.

However, the activities of new Islamist armed groups at its borders, the rise of Islamist movements and the potential impact on Syria’s future stance on the Palestinian issue and the occupied Golan Heights could increase long-term national security threats for Israel.

In the short term, the US and the West will be winners because the fall of Assad will significantly reduce Russian and Iranian influence in the region.

However, the Islamist group that seized Damascus and toppled Assad, Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), was proscribed as a terror organisation by the UK in 2017 and the US in 2018 because of its links to al-Qaeda. HTS is led by Abu Mohammad al-Jolani (real name Ahmed al-Sharaa), who was designated a terrorist by the US in 2013.

It is uncertain how the collapse of Syria’s secular government and the rise of Islamists will impact the US’s long-term interests, with the differing perspectives between the US and Turkey on the Kurdish issue, the ambiguity surrounding the future actions of the opposition and the prospect of increasing instability in the region.

Turkey is the main winner. Ankara may hope to resolve the Syrian refugee crisis in Turkey, exert more effective control over the Kurds and strengthen its role in the Palestinian issue, as well as cement alliances with like-minded groups in the region.

While Arab countries are also pleased with the reduction of Iran’s influence in Syria, the military operations of HTS and other militant groups were managed and organised by Turkey, all of which have an affiliation with the Muslim Brotherhood.

Several Arab countries, such as Egypt, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Jordan, are opponents of the Muslim Brotherhood and its ideology. Therefore, Turkey’s power projection in the region and the Brotherhood’s potential future dominance in Syria could be perceived as a new threat by some Arab countries.

Libya-style outcome

Regarding the political future of Syria, two scenarios can be imagined: a peaceful transition to a new system; or a Libyan and Sudanese-style outcome.

A peaceful transition could be achieved if the opposition continues with its moderate rhetoric and actions. However, it is composed of diverse and fragmented groups that have united solely to eliminate a common enemy.

Once this shared enemy is removed and the process of shaping the future begins, their differences will surface, and it remains uncertain how reconcilable these differences will be.

Even if there are no internal disagreements among the opposition, their conflicts with the Kurds and Turkey’s stance on this issue alone pose a major obstacle to establishing a consensus-based order. This could keep Syria in a prolonged political and security crisis, similar to Libya and Sudan.

Another important factor is the conflicting interests of the many external actors, who will each try to increase their influence over Syria’s situation in various ways.

In any scenario, future developments in Syria will have a significant impact on the region’s geopolitics. Therefore, finding a solution that is acceptable to both regional and global powers is crucial.

In April 2017, at the Carnegie Conference in Washington, I proposed 10 principles for resolving the Syrian crisis: 1) Resolving the Syrian crisis through diplomacy, not war; 2) A face-saving solution for all the main parties involved;  3) Serious and collective cooperation to eradicate terrorism from Syria; 4) Preserving Syria’s territorial integrity and sovereignty; 5) Preventing the collapse of the Syrian army and security institutions; 6) Forming an inclusive government in Syria; 7) Building a new Syria based on the will and vote of the majority of the Syrian nation; 8) Ensuring the protection of minorities in Syria; 9) Holding free elections under the supervision of the United Nations regarding the new government and constitution of Syria; 10) A comprehensive package of economic aid for Syria’s reconstruction, the return of refugees, and other humanitarian issues.

Although there was no receptive ear for these ideas at that time, today, these 10 principles could still be a comprehensive and sustainable package to resolve the Syrian crisis.

The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Eye.

Seyed Hossein Mousavian is Middle East Security and Nuclear Policy Specialist at Princeton University, and a former Chief of Iran’s National Security Foreign Relations Committee.

9 December 2024

Source: middleeasteye.net

By Dr Marwan Asmar

Syria is about to enter a new political era without Baath Party rule which has been in power since 1963 and controlled by the Al Assad family since 1971. After 61 years, this pan-nationalist party  collapsed, Sunday when the capital Damascus fell out of the hands of the regime and into a mostly opposition parties and Islamist groups, including the reformed Al-Nusra outfit, formerly affiliated to Al Qaeda and led by Abu Mohammad Al Jolani who has renamed it yet again, as Hayat Tahrir Al Sham (HTS)

Many observers say this is the completion of the Arab Spring Syrian revolution started in 2011 but took 13 years of bloodshed to arrive at this stage of political development.

Over this period the Baath regime sought to control the country with an iron fist with the help of Russia, Iran and Hezbollah to beat the armed groups that slipped into Syria to attempt to “regime-change” the Baathist order.

Today, they stand successful with the regime finally collapsing, and its leader Bashar Al Assad hastily scurrying outside the country in a plane in the middle of the night, Sunday, heading to what is thought to be Moscow.

This is indeed the end of the era for Syria and the beginning of a new dawn with a twist in Arab nationalist politics for change has both been unexpected and happened so quickly.

It all started on 30 November when the anti-regime groups took control of Aleppo in the north from the Syrian army and then proceeded to Idlib, Homs and clenched Hama city centre moving very fast to the strategically important province of Homs which is a gateway to the Syrian capital of Damascus.

The opposition forces were not to be stopped from capturing other towns and cities in the south of the country, including Suwayda and Qunitera and Deraa on the border with Jordan. Despite clashes with regime forces they established control and moved northward towards Damascus.

By Sunday 8 December, it was all over, the opposition groups entered Damascus and established control of the capital.

Today the situation remains fluid. Al Jolani, who quickly established firm control has called on the Baathist Syrian Prime Minister Mohammad Ghazi Al Jalali, who is still in his home in Damascus, to continue in his official position during this transitional period.

Since their takeover, the opposition groups stated they want things to continue as they are and for government departments to function as smoothly as possible.

Meanwhile, Arab countries, US, Russia, Iran and Israel are watching carefully the unfolding developments in Syria.

Dr Marwan Asmar is an Amman-based writer on Arab affairs and writes for https://crossfirearabia.com/

8 December 2024

Source: countercurrents.org

By Gilbert Achcar

In just a few days, after having remained relatively static for a few years, Syria has turned anew into a theatre of war of movement, in what looks like a resumption of the last major displacement of the battlefronts that took place in 2016, when the Assad regime regained control of Aleppo with Iranian and Russian support and Turkish complicity. Here we are now, facing a surprise attack accompanied by a sudden expansion of the forces of Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (Organization for the Liberation of al-Sham, i.e. Syria, commonly referred to by its Arabic acronym HTS), the Salafi jihadist group that has controlled the Idlib region in northwestern Syria since 2017.

As is well known, the origin of the group goes back to Jabhat al-Nusra, which was founded in 2012 as a branch of Al-Qaeda in Syria, then announced its defection from the organization under the name Jabhat Fath al-Sham in 2016, before absorbing other groups and becoming Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham the following year. The HTS invasion of Aleppo in recent days was carried out at the expense of the Syrian regime’s army, backed by Iranian and Russian forces. As for the Turkish role, it was again one of complicity, but in the opposite direction this time, as HTS has become dependent on Turkey, which is its only outlet.

Let us take a closer look at this mayhem, starting with the Turkish role. At the beginning of the popular uprising in Syria in 2011, Ankara aspired to impose its tutelage over the Syrian opposition and through it over the country in the event of its victory. It then soon cooperated with some Arab Gulf states in supporting armed groups raising Islamic banners, when the situation got militarized and transformed from a popular uprising against a sectarian, despotic family rule into a clash between two reactionary camps, exploited by a third camp formed by the Kurdish movement. These developments paved the way for the Syrian territories to become subjected to four occupations, in addition to the Zionist occupation of the Golan Heights that began in 1967: Iranian occupation (accompanied by regional forces affiliated with Tehran, most notably Lebanon’s Hezbollah) and Russian occupation backing the Assad regime; Turkish occupation in two areas on Syria’s northern border; and US deployment in the northeast, in support for the Kurdish forces confronting ISIS or its remnants.

So, what happened in recent days? The first thing to stand out was the rapidity with which the Assad regime forces collapsed in the face of the attack, recalling the collapse of the Iraqi regular forces in the face of ISIS when it crossed the border from Syria in the summer of 2014. The reason for these two collapses lies mainly in the sectarian factor, their common feature being that the Alawite majority in the Syrian forces and the Shiite majority in the Iraqi forces had no incentive to risk their lives defending the Sunni majority areas under their control targeted by the attack. Add to this the resentment created by the existing regime’s failure to create incentivizing living conditions, especially in Syria, which has been undergoing an economic collapse and a major increase in poverty for several years. Last Saturday, the Financial Times quoted an Alawite saying: “We are prepared to protect our villages and towns, but I don’t know that Alawites will fight for Aleppo city … The regime has stopped giving us reasons to keep supporting it.”

What is clear is that HTS, along with other factions under Turkish tutelage, have decided to seize the opportunity created by the weakening of Iranian support for the Assad regime that resulted from the great losses suffered by the Lebanese Hezbollah, Iran’s main armed wing in Syria, due to Israel’s onslaught on Lebanon. This weakening, combined with the weakening of Russian support due to the involvement of the Russian armed forces in the invasion of Ukraine, created an exceptional opportunity that HTS did seize. It is also clear that Turkey blessed this attack. Since 2015, Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s shift towards playing on the Turkish nationalist chord, along with his alliance with the Turkish nationalist far right, meant that his primary concern has become the fight against the Kurdish movement. In 2016, Ankara stabbed the Syrian opposition forces in the back by allowing the Syrian regime to retake Aleppo with Iranian and Russian support, in exchange for Russia allowing it to launch Operation Euphrates Shield and seize the Jarabulus area and its surroundings, north of the Aleppo Governorate, from the Kurdish forces that were dominant there.

This time too, Ankara took advantage of the attack by HTS on Aleppo to unleash its Syrian suppletive forces against the Kurdish forces. Erdogan had previously tried to reconcile with Bashar al-Assad, offering him support in extending his regime’s control over the vast area where the Kurdish movement is dominant in the northeast. However, the latter’s insistence that Turkey hand over to him the areas it controls on the northern border thwarted the effort. Erdogan then turned against the Assads again and gave his green light to HTS’s attack, angering the backers of the Syrian regime. The “difference of viewpoints” that Iran’s foreign minister alluded to during his visit to Ankara after the start of the attack, consists in the fact that Tehran sees the greater threat in HTS, while Ankara sees it in the Kurdish forces. Despite a common hostility towards the Kurdish movement, Tehran, Moscow and Damascus had concluded a long-term truce with it, waiting for the circumstances to change to allow them to resume the offensive for the control of the whole Syrian territory, while Ankara’s relationship with that movement has remained extremely hostile, in contrast with its cooperation with HTS which controls the Idlib region.

As for Israel and the United States, they are cautiously monitoring what is happening on the ground, as the two parties – the Assad regime and HTS – are almost equally bad in their eyes (despite the UAE’s efforts to whitewash the regime and Ankara’s efforts to whitewash HTS). The Zionist state’s main concern is to prevent Iran from seizing the opportunity of this new battle to strengthen its military presence on Syrian territory and find new ways to supply Hezbollah with weapons through it.

Finally, by stirring up sectarian animosities, these developments are pushing away the only hopeful perspective that arose in recent years in Syria, constituted by the massive popular protests against the deterioration of living conditions that have been taking place in the country since 2020. These protests began in the Suwayda region (inhabited by a Druze majority) in the territories controlled by the regime, and quickly turned into demanding Bashar al-Assad’s departure and the fall of the regime, thus reviving the spirit of the popular, democratic, non-sectarian uprising that Syria witnessed amid the Arab Spring, thirteen years ago. Let us hope that the unity of the people’s interests in livelihood and emancipation will, in a not-too-distant future, lead to the renewal of the original Syrian revolution and allow the country to be reunited on the democratic basis that the pioneers of the 2011 uprising dreamed of.

Translated from the Arabic original published by Al-Quds al-Arabi on 3 December 2024. Feel free to republish or publish in other languages, with mention of the source.

Gilbert Achcar grew up in Lebanon. He is a Professor of Development Studies and International Relations at the School of Oriental and African Studies (SOAS) in London.

7 December 2024

Source: countercurrents.org