Just International

What happened to “Modi-wave?”

By Nilofar Suhrawardy

Notwithstanding the hype raised about the so-called “Modi-wave,” Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has failed to win the needed number of seats to form the government on its own strength. At the same time, in all probability, if this party’s campaign didn’t rest primarily on Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s “image,” BJP may not have won even 240 seats. This certainly suggests that Modi’s strategies did succeed but hardly to his and his party’s satisfaction. Where did he err? And which factors weren’t considered by those assuming that he’d return for the third term with a thumping majority?

Clearly, the BJP and its supporters were over-confident about the impact of Modi-wave, which really carried little importance, as results suggest for majority of voters. Certainly, Modi did succeed in dominating media headlines at home and abroad on issues he viewed as important for electoral purposes. But even attention paid by him to his religious-card, particularly regarding the grandiose Hindu temple at Ayodhya, has carried little importance. His party failed to win even from the constituency (Faizabad, Uttar Pradesh), where the temple is situated. BJP has failed to win even 50% of seats from Uttar Pradesh, with the regional party- Samajwadi Party (SP) taking the lead here. In all probability, the voters saw through Modi’s “religious-show” at Ayodhya as his electoral propaganda and thus refused to be blinded by the same. Also, certain reports indicate that Ayodhya-show, paid little importance to grievances faced by people of the area. Undeniably, Modi went overboard in playing this card. Of course, he did gain attention but that rested primarily on manipulated agenda focusing on propagating his image as well as status. But a card of this nature can yield gains only for a limited period. It is likely to collapse if it fails to spell any gains for voters. This is what has apparently happened in Ayodhya and greater part of UP.

Besides, little importance was apparently paid to economic grievances of people at various levels. Younger generation of Indian voters appears to have given substantial significance to this fact. They are agitated by issues such as unemployment, increasing inflation, the hard reality of rich growing richer, poor-poorer and so forth. Modi’s rhetoric, weaving dreams, mattered little for them. With two terms as prime minister, in their opinion, he had been given ten years to fulfil his promises but he had failed them. It may be noted, the extensive display of religious-card by Modi carried little appeal for voters more concerned about their economic problems.

What has perhaps shocked BJP supporters most is that the party has performed dismally in the key state in Hindi-belt, that is UP. It is possible, if the opposition parties had not aligned and campaigned together on a fairly strong note, BJP may have performed better. Over-confidence, resting exclusively on Modi’s image appears to have failed BJP. In quite a few states, opposition parties’ alliance- INDIA-bloc and regional parties’ electoral fight was apparently guided by their campaign against Modi/BJP. Their primary aim was aggressively guided to be united to push Modi-led government out of power. Of course, the opposition parties have fallen short of their target. Yet, their least expected success has at least prevented BJP from securing the needed majority- winning 272 seats in 543-member Lok Sabha (Lower House of Indian Parliament). Apart from UP, the anti-Modi strategy has also worked in limiting BJP’s success in southern India, Maharashtra, West Bengal, Punjab and several other parts.

Against this backdrop, what can be said regarding opinion polls as well as exit polls predicting a return of Modi with a strong majority? Frankly speaking, these can hardly be relied upon. With India home to numerous political parties and cultural diversities, it is practically impossible to secure a reliable opinion of any group for the political party they may support/oppose. Besides, there is no denying, voters don’t always give their actual opinion on who they support/oppose. Fear prevents quite a few from actually stating the truth about who they support and vote for. So even if these polls (opinion and exit) are actually genuine, there is no guarantee that they are really based on correct data.

In essence, Modi-wave never really existed but a hype about it was certainly promoted through manufactured “news” and manipulated strategies. Voters woke to this hard reality when confronted by their economic grievances not being resolved by BJP-rhetoric resting on Modi-wave. Besides, opposition parties’ decision to give a strong fight to BJP has played a key role in spelling an electoral setback for Modi. This includes the marches undertaken by Congress leader Rahul Gandhi, his parties’ seat sharing deal with other parties of India-bloc, joint-campaigns and so-forth. Modi himself was forced to stop making fun of Rahul Gandhi during his election campaigns. Overall, with this being an era of communication-boom, even semi-literate and illiterate voters may be viewed as smart enough to understand political language of leaders in the electoral fray. This is strongly suggested by their viewing Modi’s Ayodhya-card as his electoral card and not religious. BJP’s dismal performance in UP further proves this. Simply speaking, when image/hype about a politician’s “wave” rests primarily on manufactured agenda, it cannot float for too long. It is bound to be pricked democratically and burst like a balloon as these election results indicate. There is nothing surprising about this. Clearly, Indian democracy and secularism is too strong to let such balloons- including communal – float for too long!

Nilofar Suhrawardy is a senior journalist and writer with specialization in communication studies and nuclear diplomacy.

5 June 2024

Source: countercurrents.org

Why Russians Still Support the War

By John P. Ruehl

Despite some Western expectations of an imminent decline in Russian backing for the conflict in Ukraine, akin to the fading public support observed in recent Western conflicts, Russia’s civilians and soldiers exhibit an unwavering determination to sustain their support.

Russian President Vladimir Putin arrived in Beijing for a two-day trip on May 15, 2024, and was greeted with a red-carpet welcome by Chinese President Xi Jinping. The two leaders pledged a “new era” for the Russia-China relationship, building on their “no limits partnership” struck just before Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine. As Putin’s first foreign trip since winning reelection in March, the visit showcased his and Russia’s enduring stature amid the war in Ukraine.

Despite Russia’s 2024 election being marked by systemic repression of serious alternative parties and candidates and decades of brazen statements about Russia’s “managed” democracy, Putin captured 87 percent of the vote from a record-high voter turnout. Even with some self-censorship and a slight drop in approval, the Russian public still largely backs the war, despite a largely static frontline, the severance of ties with Europe, declines in living standards, and the deaths and injuries of hundreds of thousands of Russian soldiers. The staggering number of casualties is mirrored in Ukraine, a nation that Putin and many Russians consider a brotherly nation and the mother culture of Russia.

In contrast, U.S. domestic support for the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq began to decline markedly a couple of years after the conflicts began, and predictions of a collapse in Russian public support for the war emerged soon after it began. Yet although the costs of Russia’s war in Ukraine continue to escalate and it appears far from conclusion, several reasons have compelled Russian citizens to continue supporting the war and the President who initiated it.

Opposition to war in Russia faces unique challenges not encountered in the U.S., but convincing a population that war is unavoidable is essential for any government to sustain a war effort. The Kremlin has framed the nation’s military actions as a noble fight to save ethnic Russians and Russian speakers in Ukraine from a fascist regime in Kyiv—a narrative that resonates with many Russians and the country’s history in World War II. Highlighting growing restrictions on the Russian language in Ukraine furthers this message, while Russia’s excuse that they were answering cries for help in Ukraine echoes their 1968 invasion of Czechoslovakia. Russian media also portrays their forces as minimizing civilian casualties, as Ukraine is accused of targeting civilians in Russia, and Ukraine’s failure to hold scheduled elections in 2024 has been used to question President Zelensky’s legitimacy.

By portraying Ukraine as the mother culture of Russia, Putin has cast the invasion through a historical and patriotic lens. The conflict is framed as an internal matter of reasserting Russian dominance over the ancestral homeland that birthed Russian language, religion, and political origins, against an illegitimate Ukrainian government that currently occupies the country. Russian nationalism can be rallied by invoking ethnic unity, territorial patrimony, and the need to rectify Ukraine’s separation from Moscow, making it easier to dismiss Ukraine’s sovereignty.

Russia has also deflected its violations of the UN Charter against non-aggression by depicting itself as an aggrieved party, forced into war by the U.S.-led West and its vassal states, sentiment reflected in national polls, and supported by notable figures like Slovakia’s Prime Minister Robert Fico, who in January 2024 stated that Ukraine was under the complete control of Washington. On May 1, 2024, an exhibition of captured Western weapons, vehicles, and equipment since the start of the war opened in Moscow—much like Kyiv’s in May 2022 which showed captured Russian equipment. The Kremlin connects everything to the war—including the recent attack by ISIS in Moscow. In contrast, the American public increasingly began to believe that U.S. leaders had misled them into the War on Terror, particularly the War in Iraq, which it felt could have been avoided.

Russians’ support for the war has manifested as the culmination of decades of “patriotic mobilization” that has taken place since Putin’s first term. The cultivation of nationalist sentiment, pervasive across media, culture, and politics, has intensified significantly since the invasion. The Russian identity is increasingly intertwined with the existential need to protect Russians abroad, shield Russia from NATO, and bolster Russia’s status as a great power.

Preparing and instilling confidence in the Russian armed forces’ ability to sustain a major conflict has been ongoing for decades. Russian forces engaged in counterinsurgency operations in Russia’s restive region of Chechnya in the 2000s and supported a limited conflict in support of two restive regions in neighboring Georgia in 2008. Subsequently, Russian forces seized Crimea from Ukraine in 2014 and supported a limited conflict in support of Ukraine’s restive border region with Russia. In 2015, they launched a major military operation to rescue Syrian President Assad in 2015. With relative success in Syria, the significant escalation of Russia’s conflict in Ukraine in 2022 did not come as a surprise. This contrasts with the perceived failures of Western military interventions in the 21st Century, causing domestic confidence in the U.S. military to decline as well as the scale of the military’s operations.

To alleviate domestic concern stemming from severing Russia’s historical connections with Europe, as well as distancing by other countries to comply with Western sanctions, Putin has embarked on a series of foreign trips to show Russia’s resiliency. Visits to Belarus and other former Soviet states in Central Asia and the Caucasus have helped stabilize its regional influence. Visits to IranSaudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates have served to demonstrate Russia’s enduring influence in the Middle East, while Russia has also hosted dozens of foreign leaders from the Global South, as well as those of Hungary and Austria.

However, Russia’s ties with China form its most crucial bilateral relationship. Despite the power imbalance, Putin’s May visit to China reaffirmed Moscow’s strategic relationship with Beijing. Russia’s capacity to confront the U.S. and collaborate with other major powers offers reassurance that has erased much of the pain of the geopolitical decline that accompanied the Soviet collapse.

Moscow has also aimed to counter any moral superiority by the West in Ukraine by highlighting Washington’s and Kyiv’s support for Israel since October 7. Framing it as part of Russia’s confrontation with the West for a new multipolar world order, the Kremlin hopes to legitimize its policies and broaden Russia’s appeal to the Global South. Following the Nigerien government’s expulsion of U.S. troops in May 2024 and the invitation of Russian forces, images of Russian troops entering the same airbase where U.S. military personnel were stationed further underscored Russia’s assertive struggle with the West and wider geopolitical ambitions.

Furthermore, Russian citizens have been shielded from the economic repercussions of the war through subsidized fuel, food, and other essential resources. Russia’s substantial gold and foreign reserves have helped fund the war and prevented extended currency volatility, while the imposition of hefty penalties on foreign companies considering leaving Russia has deterred many Western firms from exiting or compelled them to pay significant costs.

Russia’s major economic partners, most importantly China and India, have helped maintain stability in Russia’s exports and imports. Western sanctions have also by design not crippled the Russian economy, as preventing Russian resources from reaching global markets would cause prices to spike.

Moreover, the Russian public has also been largely spared from devastation. Ukrainian attacks within Russia have mostly been limited to small flareups in border regions and attacks on energy and transport facilities, and Ukrainian forces are still restricted from using Western weapons. Sabotage attacks in Russia have also risen, but the situation is manageable.

In contrast to Ukrainian citizens, no Russian civilians have been forcefully committed to fight. The 2022 partial mobilization called up reservists, while recent changes to laws have meant Russia has been more easily able to offer generous contracts to annual conscripts soon after their training has concluded. Compared to the forced conscription videos in Ukraine, Russian media can claim it only uses volunteers and those already part of the armed forces.

Russian soldiers who are injured, as well as the families of Russian soldiers who died in service, receive substantial compensation. Though payment is often delayed, the modest backgrounds of most Russian soldiers mean that these funds can be life-changing. The use of prisoners in particularly perilous military operations has also shielded regular Russian soldiers, with Ukraine only considering this practice earlier this year.

Nevertheless, tens of thousands of Russian soldiers have been killed and hundreds of thousands more seriously wounded. This tests the casualties hypothesis, which states that the public’s willingness to remain engaged in a military intervention declines as casualties mount. The Soviet Union’s 10-year war in Afghanistan saw 15,000 Soviet troops killed and eventually helped lead to the downfall of the country, while the deeply unpopular Iraq War saw 4,500 U.S. soldier deaths and saw the Bush administration’s popularity decline considerably.

Undoubtedly, the Russian government distorts official casualty figures. Yet it is crucial to contextualize Russia’s losses in Ukraine within the context of recent history. The COVID-19 pandemic claimed more than 400,000 Russian lives, far surpassing the casualties in Ukraine.

Furthermore, the Russian public’s stomach in the face of such significant losses may be influenced by the large number of deaths of prominent Russians since the beginning of the war. Across Russian media, the war and its repercussions have shown that even the country’s most influential individuals can be killed and have their assets stripped, contributing to a sense of collective sacrifice amid the conflict.

Amid the chaos of the war, dozens of Russian oligarchs and political figures have been killed in suspicious circumstances both in Russia and overseas, in a public settling of scores, opportunism, and punishment from the Kremlin for disobedience. A day after Russian forces entered Ukraine, the body of Alexander Tyulyakov, a senior executive of Gazprom’s corporate security, was found hanging in his garage. Ravil Maganov, chairman of the board of Russia’s oil giant Lukoil, allegedly fell out of a Moscow hospital window in September 2022. In December, businessman Vladimir Bidenov died of heart problems at the Hotel Sai International in India—two days later his business associate and deputy in the Legislative Assembly of Vladimir Oblast, Pavel Antov, fell out of a window at the same hotel.

While the deaths of oligarchs and politicians may offer some solace to ordinary Russian soldiers serving in Ukraine, there has also been a significant loss of high-ranking military officials. Some, like Lieutenant General Vladimir Sviridov, were also killed in suspicious circumstances. However, the necessity for high-ranking Russian military officials to remain near the frontlines, owing to a more top-down decision-making military structure and the risk of electronic eavesdropping by Ukrainian and Western advisors, contributes to their higher casualty rate.

Alongside hundreds of other high-profile deaths, Russia has confirmed that seven general officers had been killed in Ukraine by 2024, with Ukraine claiming more than 14 had been killed by early 2023. The last time a U.S. general was killed in combat was in 2014 when an Afghan serviceman opened fire on NATO personnel in Kabul; prior to that, no American general had lost their life in combat since the Vietnam War. With this backdrop of sacrifice and solidarity among Russian elites, Russia’s “rally-‘round-the-flag” effect may sustain itself longer than expected.

Russians appear to believe time and demographics are on their side. According to a March 2024 poll by Russia’s Levada Center, after decades of emigration, the share of Russians expressing a desire to move abroad hit a record low, partly in response to many of those wanting to leave having already done so. Nevertheless, Finion, a Moscow-based relocation firm, stated that 40 to 45 percent of Russians who fled abroad had since returned, driven by factors such as cracking down on remote work, visa issues, reduced fears of conscription, and a general desire to return.

And while tens of thousands of Russian soldiers have perished, along with thousands more ethnic Russians in occupied parts of Ukraine, millions of those living in those occupied territories have already been incorporated into the Russian Federation’s pre-existing 144 million citizens. Conversely, Ukraine, with 37 million people before the war, has faced a population exodus compounding already challenging demographics.

By early 2024, the prevailing sentiment was that Russia had gained a fragile upper hand. Victory, though potentially pyrrhic, appears increasingly likely, if loosely defined, in Russia. Yet, as the conflict drags on, sustained by a Russian economy increasingly geared toward the war, the pursuit of victory may wane as casualties and other costs mount. The Kremlin’s anxieties are now focused on Western nations, led by the UK, France, and Poland, allowing Ukraine to use Western weapons in Russia, which would further bring the war home to Russian civilians and internal infrastructure.

While projecting an image of composure to the public, tensions are unquestionably simmering in the Kremlin. Estimates regarding Russia’s capacity to sustain the war in its current state typically hover around two to three years. Yet unwavering support for Putin, coupled with the absence of viable alternatives, may extend his strong personal commitment to the war indefinitely. While Russia appears capable of and determined to continue the war, its uncertain future will continue to test the Russian public’s tacit enthusiasm for it.

Putin’s willingness to continue the war is seen as something to exploit in the West. Western policymakers have witnessed Russia increasingly commit its domestic resources to the conflict, as well as recently shift from calling it a “special military operation” to a war. Steadily increasing Ukraine’s technical capacity to fight a war of attrition will continue to wear down Russia’s Soviet arsenal and deployment of arms abroad, demonstrating the feebleness of Russia’s production and advanced weapons systems. By provoking a Russian defeat, it is hoped a second major convulsion across the former Soviet Union will further reduce Moscow’s geopolitical influence. Russia’s protracted military campaign and the West’s strategy of prolonging the conflict through escalation management will keep exacting a catastrophic toll on Ukrainian lives and infrastructure.

John P. Ruehl is an Australian-American journalist living in Washington, D.C., and a world affairs correspondent for the Independent Media Institute.

4 June 2024

Source: countercurrents.org

Why do Egomaniac Leaders Wage War on Humanity?

By Dr. Mahboob A. Khawaja

Leaders who could not Think as Normal Human Beings

Leaders who view humanity less than in equal human status are extremely naive about their own nature of being a human – lacking moral, spiritual and intellectual act of balancing the consciousness“ or engaged in competitive numbers games to elevate their own image in global power and influence over others. They use dynamics of absolutism and aggressive behavior to manipulate the weak and helpless people.

“Man (human being) was created by God in the best possible mould”,  explains the Divine narrative but human diversity is a natural phenomenon and its consequences are far beyond the conception of right and wrong or virtue and vice. People and nations strive to compete for triumph and glory implying varied methods of political power, media propaganda, psychological and other weapons of mass destruction. Ironically, human minds with normal consciousness would not pursue tyranny, aggressive behavior, killings and destruction of other nations, cultures and civilizations.It is the abnormal mind, political power, greed, and hatred and sometimes ethnic supremacy that makes them to act irrationally and abnormally worst than wild beasts.

The living Earth maintains 78% nitrogen and 21% oxygen to support all forms of life and technology on this planet. We hold moral and spiritual solidarity as a foundation of the sanctity of life and unanimity of mankind. All human beings are composed of material and spiritual factors to flourish life. If they breathe oxygen and heart beats, God is there. Is there an individualistic psychological, moral and spiritual problem of balancing act with PM Netyanhu and President Joe Biden to act normally for an immediate  ceasefire and peace in Gaza? Both have unique characteristics to be analyzed and reflected for being indifferent to peace and supportive of war on Gaza and killings of almost 36,000 or more innocent people and some 15,000 children and women and reportedly some 14, 000 children and women still buried in various locations of Gaza. If Netanyahu claims  some morality-how treacherous it is used to bomb places of worship, hospitals and make the Gazan civilians starve for several months. Biden in a US Presidential election year and Netanyahu for his own political survival appear to be competing for glory and success by using wrong thinking, wrong methods and for the wrong reasons. Wars and bombing and destruction of mankind do not produce peace and societal harmony, be it in Israel, Palestine or the US.

Masses against War as Wars do not Produce Peace and Harmony

The voices of public consciousness echo across many continents to “ Stop the War in Gaza”,  “Let Palestinians Live”,  and stop the “Crimes against Humanity by America and Israel.”  No wonder who listens to these inner voices of humanity when unabated bombardments are destroying lives and human habitats without any accountability. The ICJ asking for a halt to the war and the ICC threat of the arrest warrants of Israeli leaders went unnoticed.

This weekend, Israeli media reported more than 120,000 citizens in Tel Aviv demanding removal of PM Netanyahu, the end of war on Gaza and safe return of 134 hostages. The center of sadistic gravity and vengeance is PM Netanyahu and his war cabinet and dynamic syntax to command the world is the White House.

Life itself is a trial to people and nations and imbued with a rational choice to be righteous or evil monger on this planet. Are there any lessons to be learned from formative history? Do human cultures and civilizations grow out of the maligned proclamations of rule of law, freedom, justice, cruelty, occupation and conquest of other lands? The Earth is a sacred trust to mankind and is a living organ floating in space by the Will of God andsustains all life and aggressors are warned by the Divine injunction:  “Say! Travel through the earth; And see what was the end of those who rejected Truth.” The emerging wars and destruction of Earth and human habitats across Gaza and beyond are blatant violations of that TRUST between Man and God and call for awakening of human conscience and soul: “Truly Man is to his Lord, ungrateful and that (fact) he bears witness (by his deeds.): 6-7: 100: The Qur’an).

Political Wickedness and Human Nature

Is wickedness part of human nature? Man by nature seems to be a ‘contentious’ being. A rational conflict analysis and search for peace involves listening and learning to divergent viewpoints and finding a common place of reasoning without agreeing or disagreeing to stop the warfare.This shows effective communication and enlightened leadership traits.Why do leaders become aggressive and act like egomaniacs? Simply put, they lack their own mind, intellect and sense of rational being and heavily rely on advisors to make decisions or they fear the unknown to be replaced or their inner weaknesses overwhelm their strengths to act irrationally in situations of crisis.

I asked this question to many distinguished international scholars including Robert Burrowes and Robert (Bob) Kohoeler to know and enlighten the knowledge-based curiosity. Often reason has its limits but knowledge knows no bound and global affairs are a shared enterprise. Professor Robert J. Burrowes and Anita (Australia),need no introduction as scholars and Coordinator of the “Global Non-Violence Peace Movement”:

“Often I wonder, why do people become aggressive and act in inhuman ways that conflict with the Nature of Things.”…. “One view is essentially the concept of “POWER” , late Prof Hans Margenthau was right , ‘absolute power corrupts all the people , all the time.’… Aggressive people THINK of their own EGO (self) being the power (political absolutism),without any accountability,  and that leads
them to commit all types of crimes against fellow human beings.

Robert and Anita Responded: You pose what are really ‘eternal’ questions. That is, you raise issues that have troubled humanity from the dawn of ‘civilization’ if not much earlier. ‘How do we communicate to such powerful people to make them THINK as normal human beings?’ Frankly, I do not believe it is possible to meaningfully communicate with such people which is why I spend no time trying to do so. The reason flows from my answer to another question you pose: ‘why do people become aggressive and act in inhuman ways that conflict with the Nature of Things.’ The second question you posed was one that fascinated me from a young age.  After some 30 years researching it, Anita and I went into seclusion in 1996 to undertake some deep emotional healing. It took 14 years but taught us a great deal.

Bob Koeheler – a Chicago-based well known journalist shared his stance (“A WORLD UNDER SPIRITUAL CONSTRUCTION”): I think the only answer is transcending war!! War begins with — and is not possible without – dehumanization. “These are human animals,” as Yoav Gallant said.

Israeli and American Collaborative Crimes against Humanity and ‘Genocide’

To glance ahead it seems that the Western world failed to see a dreadful tragic history in the making of the end of time and loss of ingenuity to understand the consequences of naive egoism of Israeli leadership making war as an instrument of territorial expansion in the Middle EastHuman glory lives in the conception of good and righteousness, not in wickedness and genocidal plans. Rationally arguable conclusion to the war on Gaza was perceivable if there was a unified political-military challenge to the Israeli plans by the Arab-Muslim world. That landscape appears morally, intellectually and politically bankrupt as a scum floating on a torrent of naive puppets and discredited leaders. The American-Israeli collaborative war on Gaza and its immediate consequences made the Western world and all of its institutions shamefully redundant and void in the 21st century global norms of civility, human rights, freedom, justice and safety of civilians – whereas crimes against humanity are captured in obscure impulses and indecision and deliberate inaction by the UNO and the Security Council. Mocking its Charter obligations, the UN Security Council failed to protect the civilians from terror of daily bombardments of hospitals and places of worship. Peter Koenig (“Gaza: US and the West Support Israel’s Crimes Against Humanity: Understanding the Never-Ending Conflict”, Global Research: 11/06/23), explains:Israel’s PM Netanyahu is a war criminal and should be held accountable for war crimes throughout his PM-ship of Israel, according to the 1945 / 1946 Nuremberg trials criteria. His crimes against humanity, against a defenseless Palestine are comparable to the Holocaust. https://www.globalresearch.ca/gaza-us-west-supports-israel-crimes-against-humanity/5745763

Dr. Mahboob A. Khawaja specializes in international affairs-global security, peace and conflict resolution and has spent several academic years across the Russian-Ukrainian and Central Asian regions knowing the people, diverse cultures of thinking and political governance and a keen interest in Islamic-Western comparative cultures and civilizations, and author of several publications including the latest: One Humanity and the Remaking of Global Peace, Security and Conflict Resolution. 12/2019.

4 June 2024

Source: countercurrents.org

Firefighters Battle Raging Blazes in North Israel

By Dr Marwan Asmar

North Israel is burning with more than 15 fires going on at the same time. The horizons of these northern areas are covered with flames and smoke. Gaza’s war had long filtered into these northern areas.

[https://twitter.com/GlobalAffairs96/status/1797728386581942688]

Set alight by Hezbollah rockets launched from southern Lebanon, some of which through drones, thousands of acres have been set alight.

The blazes have started to burn Sunday and continued all through Monday night, going into Tuesday morning with teams of Israeli firefighters battling the raging flames that are described as apocalyptic and never seen before.

[https://twitter.com/AryJeay/status/1797680892477087896]

Videoclips of the fires are trending on the X platform showing the extent of the raging flames. All video clips show the rage in the fires that see no end as long as rockets keep coming to the northern Galilee and the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights.

Some of the worst hit areas is the settlement of Kiryat Shmona where thousands of Israelis are fleeing their homes.  It is reported six firemen were injured trying to control the fires here. The settlement, situated in northeastern occupied Palestine, had a population of 24,000 settlers.

[https://twitter.com/QudsNen/status/1797734847160389743]

Most of them had long been evacuated in the early months of the war on Gaza after 7 October, 2023 because of constant targeting by Hezbollah rockets.

Only 4000 remained but now and with the raging fires, these Israeli settlers are being evacuated quickly.

One blogger pointed out that 12 to 13 kilometers of the Galilee and Kiryat Shmona belt are burning despite the nine fire-fighting teams who are fighting round-the-clock to put the fires out. The fighting crews were later invreased to over 30 according to the Times of Israel.

The paper said the fires led to several major road in the Galilee area.

[https://twitter.com/SprinterFamily/status/1797724165002420514]

Israel’s Iron Dome is unable to deflect the incoming rockets from southern Lebanon as they are being launched in bundles and firemen are unable to put the fires out because of the wind changes.

Israeli extremist National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir says its is time for “all of Lebanon to burn” in response to the fires triggered by Hezbollah. He had long long been calling for the invasion of Lebanon and the destruction of Hezbollah in its entirety.

Dr Marwan Asmar writes from Amman, Joran, covering Middle Eastern affairs and he blogs at https://crossfirearabia.com.

4 June 2024

Source: countercurrents.org

Peasantry may bring NDA on its knees

By Prabhat Sharan

Behind the electoral din and cacophony of the corporate media drum beaters, a spectre in raiment of flames leaping out onto the skies, from the fields on fire continues to haunt the ruling powers.

Irrespective of the outcome of the election results, the peasantry-adivasi populace like the mythical bird Phoenix will continue to resurrect itself from its own ashes across the Indian sub-continent much to the discomfort of rulers.

The spark that set the hay on fire in the granaries of the country in 2020-21 was the passing of three contentious farm bills through clandestine corridors where parliamentary procedures for the past one decade, are used for cosmetic purposes to gloss over the practice of illiberal democracy.

After a long spell of blustering and bluffing, the ruling Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP) led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) was on its knees and for once found its empty rhetorical flourishes and damage control barbs boomeranging.

The veneer of BJP’s condescending intransigence and paper courage was in smithereens and fluttering like dry autumn leaves in the breath of old wizened farmers smiling with the chill of the cold wind and squinting eyes in the glassy blazing breeze of Delhi.

The bellicosity and contempt for people while pushing anti-people policies whetted and crafted out in the boardrooms of corporate and big business houses, vapourised in front of the rage and fury of farmers hailing from the granaries of the country.

Political parties in opposition although reduced to a deflated punching bag for the corporate media the ruling BJP led NDA was forced to withdraw its contentious bills.

This was the first of the salvo emerging out of the sharpening of class differences in a nation where for the past several decades identity politics replaced class based polity.

Interestingly, a bourgeoisie political party like Indian National Congress which had ushered in Thatcherite economic policies during early nineties, this time round rather than over focussing on identity politics made class-rooted issues connecting it with the agonies of subaltern and marginal population as its main campaigning plank.

This turnaround by a bourgeoisie political party primarily stemmed from witnessing the massive show of strength of peasantry class.

The peasantry class irrespective of the class and stratification that it is riddled with for the past several decades has been looking  into the eyes of an abyss from where the only exit was the door to death.

While the lines between propaganda and truth has gotten blurred in recent years thanks to the round-the-clock tom tomming by the corporate media concomitant with carpet bombing of twisted loaded messages purported as facts but designed to tap the deep seated biases, prejudices and fears of Reichian ‘Little Man,’ the peasantry class has somehow kept its voice of dissent and anger alive.

As tiller Kashinath Jobane, in the All India Kisan Sabha’s (AIKS) ‘Long March’ from Nashik to Mumbai in 2017 remarked: Yes. We are living a lie because it is on the mirage of hopes we are living. But even the city dwellers are also living the same lie”.

As former Nashik bureau chief of national daily Times of India and columnist Rakshit Sonawane commented “You cannot set the hay on fire if it is damp.  If it is dry then a single match can set the entire field on fire. This is what is happening in the rural area where farmers have become a dying breed because of the lop-sided policies of the government”.

Of course the privileged city dwellers are known for their indifference towards their fellow being sufferings but the carapace of neo-upper urban middle-class for once started seeing dents in their conscience despite their rationalisations and justifications for police excesses against the protestors.

And 2020-21 agitation was not the first time that the farmers had raised their voices against the anti-agrarian policies but what was in earlier regime a ‘push,’  during NDA rule this push turned into a ‘shove’.

Sinking reality of agrarian policies

Ironically most farmers in elections had voted heavily for BJP hoping that the promises doled out to them would be implemented.

With expectations high, the sinking of stark reality into one’s mind takes time but when such revelation does dawn, it comes as a “slap on the hopes.”

And the farm bills specifically plotted out to increase the stranglehold of the corporate and mega business houses over agriculture sector was the last straw. It has left the farming community in a room with no-exit with massive rise in the input costs.

Noted scholar, documentarist and cultural activist who has spent over four decades in country’s hinterlands studying agrarian issues while talking to this writer once commented that the situation facing the farming community in India, “is extremely complex involving a lot of factors including the politics of water.”

Elaborating on the issue of water politics, Nadkar pointed out that “Marathwada in Maharashtra is reportedly a drought-prone region but the aerated and carbonated and beer manufacturing companies have an endless supply of water while the agrarian community has to beg even for drinking water.”

However, water politics is just one of the symptoms plaguing the farming community. “The input cost has been increasing over the years and with over 40 per cent of farming community comprising small land holding owners, landless labourers, and tribals involved in share cropping or cultivating on lease land, the loan waiver will in no way benefit the cultivator. As per the Swaminathan Commission Report recommendations the MSP should 50 percent more than the actual input cost.

“Moreover, since early nineties there has been a tectonic shift by successive governments from agriculture to industrialization. From rural areas to urban areas. Not that the farmer earlier lived an idyllic life but today even a big landholding farmer is facing the sting of this paradigm shift. And alienation is high.”

Increase in agrarian protest after NDA

While it is true that hinterlands have always been witnessing agrarian protests and many a time even violent uprisings, the fact is that the farmland mass struggles have increased.

The corporate and mega business houses were tired of earlier Congress led UPA’s vacillation and snail-speed over the implementation of policies designed to increase their profits and hold over public goods and public land and thus helped BJP gain ascendancy.

But even if the ruling power manage to come out of this cauldron, the simmering subterranean rage would certainly keep on erupting and history shows, “Tyrants often fall because they do not know their limits.” (Paul Woodruff, Ethical Philosopher)

This is an updated article that was written on Dec7/2020 for a news portal. The article was removed after a couple of days.

Prabhat Sharan is a Senior Journalist with interest in social, human interest, working class, wild-life conservation, philosophical and literary studies.

4 June 2024

Source: countercurrents.org

Re-interpreting Winning and Losing: The Elections

By R. Umamaheshwari

Beyond all the games of numbers and predictions in the context of the electoral season (that continued rather long into peak summer), is the question of who won and who lost?  And I choose to write of winning and losing from a different perspective. Irrespective of the final numbers (many of us – who read the newspapers still – dreaming of waking up to hope-filled headlines in the papers of 5th of June, on the World Environment Day), here are a few things that already won. I begin with a simple example. A young post-graduate student in a small village in Himachal Pradesh where I used to live would regularly send me messages expressing her anguish, whenever the so-called ‘Whatsapp university’ hate-speech forwards made appearance and had some of her own cousins and neighbours in a trance. She would write, “inko kaise samjhaayen; yeh sab andhbhakt hog aye hain” (trans. How does one explain to them; they have become blind devotees). This is a ‘victory’: a young literate woman in a village increasingly polarised, who can see the truth and worry for the country’s direction, while still being a consumer of the same ‘Whatsapp university’ system.

Independent journalism secured a big victory, too, this year. YouTube became the alternate medium for a more diverse representation of truth and facts, based on on-the-ground reporting by several YouTubers and independent citizen journalists. We saw and heard people with faces and names that would never enter TV studio debates. Of course, you also had those among the “Creators Awards”-gang, who became state P.R. machinery overnight. But the number of likes and subscriptions for the real reporters on the ground increased by leaps and bounds, as the electoral battle intensified. As they say, “you cannot fool all the people, all the time.”

The epithet “Godi media” entered cultural consciousness and that represents its wide acceptance among people, which I would call another ‘win’ for a new understanding of the state-media nexus. Many prior stalwarts of TV channels that had mushroomed (alongside globalisation and opening of new markets) realised over the last few years that shareholder-tied news journalism cannot remain free. Many have now transformed into YouTube and social media journalists. The fact that YouTube allowed for (at least in the election context) multiple and plural voices to be seen and heard, made it a rapidly growing commercial enterprise; for it to grow, the plurality of content on it will have to remain. Yet it was a major victory for democracy that the unpaid advocates for freedom of speech found their space in it with likes and subscribers crossing the million-mark. It is a major victory that many people, fed up of consuming the vitriol and shouting matches on TV channels, found means to express themselves through social media countering even the hate campaign. Comedy, parodies, spoofs and memes, too, found space on the internet.

One of the major victories, politically, has been the agenda set by the INDIA alliance partners via their manifesto, which focussed on the well-being of the last person as being tied to the well-being of the nation, which forced the BJP to tweak its own election messaging, even while it led them back to their own original slogan: the Muslim, as the enemy.

Yet another victory has been the clarity we got regarding the political leanings and consciousness of cine stars in India.

Another win – if only in a skewed sense – was (this went rather unnoticed) poster (“postcard” forwarded by Whatsappers) that Yogi Adityanath issued in the midst of the hate speech debate surrounding Modi, wherein he stated: “I respect Allah…”(the latter part was the problematic, which I shall come to, but even to start the poster with those three words was huge for Yogi) “as much as a Muslim respects Lord Ram”; “I give the same respect to the Quran as a Muslim gives to the Gita or Ramayana”… and so on. The problematic? The respect would be conditional. So, this was a poor take on Mahatma Gandhi’s “I am also a Muslim, a Christian a Buddhist, and a Jew…”

In a sense, this may be seen as a victory for the agenda set by the INDIA alliance on secularism, that led to this messaging. Religious discrimination cannot go too far in this country, beyond a point, if winning an election is the target.

Another victory was that the Supreme Court stood its ground on justice in many cases, asking the right questions, scrapping the electoral bonds, seeking answers from ECI, releasing Kejriwal on bail, etc. And it was the victory of advocates who fought for the Constitution of India to be upheld.

Who lost? Or Who will lose or who will have lost? For one, the idea that the Election Commission of India was a fair referee. So many hate speeches, violations of the code of conduct, etc. went past without any disqualification, especially if the wrongdoings were by the BJP and its allies.

Another loss that the BJP needs to take into cognisance, is its identity as a Party. That they upheld candidatures of even people accused of (proven) sexual offences and assault. That they had only one singular face for campaign across the country: Modi became bigger (it seems) than the party named BJP, just like the poster of a taller Modi leading a shorter child Rama. Nobody can recall the BJP candidates even as he asked people for votes for Modi and not the candidates. Federalism in the true sense has also had its losses (with BJP trying to topple duly elected governments in different states, before the Lok Sabha elections). Another loser tactic was for BJP to hire truly mediocre YouTubers for PR and PR firm heads (such as those called out during the MeToo movement).

TV channels (mainstream) and the highest paid anchors lost their face for a lot of people on ground. Some TV anchors were booed and shouted out from places where they went (sometimes alighting a helicopter) to. Their true faces – as stooges of those in power – came out stronger than ever.

Finally, irrespective of whether the BJP loses or wins, this electoral battle will still be a spiritual and moral victory for the idea of India in its vibrant united opposition (after a long time) having stuck together through thick and thin with one secular and progressive agenda; in the fight for freedom of thought and expression exemplified by the comic Shyam Rangeela (whose candidature was rejected) aiming to fight for a principle (that there was a possibility of it, had the EC not played spoilsport); in candidates like Kanhaiya Kumar (and in the context of Lahaul and Spiti, in Himachal Pradesh by-elections, Anuradha Rana) without hefty bank balance or advantages of class or powerful lobbyists.

Who will have won, ultimately? The people of India, who have the staying power to fight and those – in the now-established independent media – who will stay the course, no matter what the outcome of the current battle. And this victory is the sweetest of all: speaking truth to power as a matter of principle. At another level, a new social and political consciousness has percolated at the ground level and irrespective of who wins and who loses, this consciousness is hopefully likely to bring about a change in the kind of acceptance of ‘news’, as well. And people are likely to get more creative with the use of social media, when their voices are otherwise stifled in democracies.

R. Umamaheshwari (independent historian-journalist) is author of From Possession to Freedom: The Journey of Nili Nilakeci (Zubaan Books)among others.

4 June 2024

Source: countercurrents.org

India Elections: Huge Setback for Narendra Modi and BJP

By Countercurrents Collective

After ruling for 10 years India’s right-wing Hindu Nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) failed to make a decisive majority in India’s 543 member parliament. As per the latest trends BJP is leading in 240 seats, 30 short of a simple majority. However, the BJP led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is leading in 290 seats, just over the majority mark. However, the equations may change as the opposition Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (I.N.D.I.A) are leading in 234 seats. Independents and other smaller political parties are leading in 19 seats. One can not rule out the possibility of one or other political parties in either of these alliances switching sides and forming a government.

The results are a huge setback for Prime Minister Narendra Modi. He had campaigned for 400 seats for BJP in this election. He had asked the voters to give him 400 seats in this election so that he could make necessary policy reforms without hindrances of alliance partners. However, BJP’s tally was reduced to 240 seats, making sure that the next government in India would be a coalition government.

Indian National Congress is the second biggest party with 98 seats.

BJP got a huge setback as it could secure only 38 seats in the decisive Uttar Pradesh where there are 80 seats. Samajwadi Party won 41 seats in Uttar Pradesh.

4 June 2024

Source: countercurrents.org

Higher voter turnout rejection of Modi’s policies in Kashmir

Dr. Ghulam Nabi Fai

Secretary General

World Kashmir Awareness Forum

June 5, 204

While the hullabaloo over Parliamentary elections in Indian occupied Kashmir has been on the verge of being a circus, with all the elephants of election sloganeering on parade, like, Prime Minister Modi’s tweet, “The abrogation of Article 370 has enabled the aspirations of the people (of Kashmir) to find full expression.” And Amit Shah’s tweet, “The Modi government’s endeavours to ensure peace and development in Kashmir have strengthened people’s trust in democracy.” But the analytical observation on the ground shows that the higher voter turnout was the reflection of the rejection of Modi’s colonial and antidemocratic ways in Kashmir. Such sloganeering was also a distraction from the basic and fundamental right, pledged by both India and Pakistan and upheld by the world community – the right of self-determination given to the people of State of Jammu & Kashmir to decide the future status of its territory.

There is no doubt that the authority of any government can only derive from the will of the people as expressed in truly free and fair elections held in regular intervals on the basis of universal, equal and secret suffrage. Elections must meet legitimate standards based on internationally accepted and prescribed procedures for voter registration, election campaign and ballot secrecy. It is a fact the election or referendum in Kashmir has to be conducted, monitored and supervised by an impartial and neutral agency, like the United Nations. Unfortunately, the elections in Indian Occupied Kashmir do not meet this threshold and are therefore, illegitimate as a vehicle to move forward any talks even as a first step towards the resolution of Kashmir dispute.

The world powers know that the Government of India’s election plans have nothing to do with building a majority consensus in Kashmir. They are designed to legitimize its illegitimate rule in the eyes of the international community.

It is worth mentioning here that the United Nations Security Council has denounced the “subterfuge” of elections in a 1957 resolution # 122. It reminded the concerned governments and authorities “of the principle embodied in its resolution that the final disposition of the State of Jammu and Kashmir will be made in accordance with the will of the people expressed through the democratic method of a free and impartial plebiscite conducted under the auspices of the United Nations.” The resolution further elaborated that “the convening of a Constituent Assembly…and any action that Assembly may have taken or might attempt to take to determine the future shape and affiliation [of Kashmir]” would be no surrogate for Kashmiri self-determination.

Now, let us analyze the current parliamentary election in Kashmir on the basis of the interviews conducted by neutral news agencies on the day of voting at various polling booths.

Anando Bhakto reported in Virginia, United States based ‘The Diplomat’ on May 23, 2024 that, “But people described the import of the elections in stark and chilling terms: a demonstration of their anger over the New Delhi-controlled, bureaucratic power apparatus, which is administering J&K in the aftermath of August 5, 2019, when India’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) government revoked J&K’s special status by a presidential proclamation.

The Diplomat further wrote that, “In Sopore, Aaqib, a teacher in his late 20s, averred: “We vote to reverse everything that August 5, 2019, effected in our lives: stifling of dissenting viewpoints by relentless use of anti-terror laws, an affront to our religious sentiments, and the fear of a demographic reorientation.” His companions share his vexation that the world around them is crumbling under the strain of the BJP’s Hindu majoritarian politics. Their vote is their instrument to convey their accumulated anger and loss of hope.

Same sentiments were echoes in Economic Times on May 27, 2024 when it interviewed Sahil Parvez of Janbazpora who said, “We want to send a message to New Delhi that we are not happy with the decisions of August 5 2019, and what has happened in the Valley since.” It added “That is no endorsement of India or its policies, say voters and local politicians. Instead, they say, it is a reflection of a dramatically changed political landscape in the region that they feel has left them with no other option to show their dissent against New Delhi.

Al Jazeera quoted Parra saying that, “People have now realised that [their] vote is a weapon,” “Today, there is a complete silence in Kashmir. People are even afraid of talking, but by participating in the elections, they have conveyed their dissent to New Delhi’s 2019 decision.”

Bashir said, referring to fears that the BJP is trying to change the demographics of the Muslim-majority region by allowing people from other parts of India to buy land, take up jobs and settle in Kashmir.

Al-Jazeera interviewed Rukhsana, a 30-year-old voter from the village of Naira in south Kashmir, who said her vote would help to release jailed youth in her village. “There are lots of atrocities taking place in Kashmir. Our youth are jailed. I am sure if we have our people at the helm of affairs, our miseries will lessen,” she said.

According to the Election Commission of India data, Engineer Rashid was winning the seat in Baramullah constituency with a margin of over 200,000 votes, defeating former chief minister of Kashmir, Omar Abdullah and BJP supported candidate, Sajad Lone. His election campaign was also designed to reject anti-terror laws enacted by Modi administration in Kashmir. Most of his campaigners projected him as the victim of “India’s cruelty.” Their election slogan was “Jail ka badla vote se lenge” (The best revenge of jail is through vote).

If my vote helps in Engineer’s release, that is enough reason for me,”AlJazeera quoted a voter saying on May 16, 2024

Engineer Rashid has earlier made it clear that he stands for a referendum in Kashmir.  It is reported in the local newspapers that in 2015, Engineer Rashid generated a big controversy when he raised the slogan of ‘Rai Shumari’ (Plebiscite to determine J&K’s future in accordance with the United Nations Security Council resolutions of 1948 and 1949). The BJP MLAs confronted him fiercely while alleging that Rashid was promoting Pakistan’s, the separatists’ and the terrorists’ narrative inside the state legislature. His “Raishumari” slogans added to his popularity among sections of the valley’s younger generation which nourished and cherished the dreams of ‘azadi’.

If world powers would like to pursue the commitment that it has given to the people of Kashmir, then the referendum is the only way out.

It can take place provided: (1) there is the demilitarization of the State of Jammu & Kashmir on either side of the Cease-fire Line; (2) an atmosphere of peace and security is created; (3) all draconian laws, including Domicile Law which is designed to change the demography of Kashmir is annulled; (4) all political prisoners, including Mohammad Yasin Malik, Shabir Ahmed Shah, Masarat Aalam Bhat, Aasia Andrabi, Nahid Fehmida, Sofi Nasreen, Khurram Parvaiz and others are released immediately and unconditionally; (5) the rights of peaceful association, assembly and demonstrations are restored; (6) any solution must satisfy democratic principles, the rule of law, and security for every inhabitant of Kashmir, irrespective of their religious affiliations; (7) an international and neutral team is deputed to conduct the referendum.

In conclusion, Kashmir’s suffering is a rebuke to the United Nations for its inaction. The situation is a call on the conscience of the members of the Security Council, particularly to the United States.

Dr. Fai is also the Chairman, World Forum for Peace & Justice.
He can be reached at:

WhatsApp: 1-202-607-6435 or gnfai2003@yahoo.com

www.kashmirawareness.org

Latin America: From the Struggle for Independence (1808) to the Great War (1914)

By Dr. Vladislav B. Sotirovic

From the very political point of view, the 19th century in Latin America started in 1808 when the emancipation of the subordinated people against the foreign (Spanish & Portuguese) rule started (and finished in 1826) and was over with the beginning of the Great War in Europe in 1914. The struggle for independence was extremely speeded up by the French military-political subjection of the Iberian Peninsula when both Spain and Portugal lost direct connections with their overseas colonies. Such a new geopolitical situation fostered domestic Latin American patriotic nationalism which demanded political independence, administrative sovereignty, and economic self-administration instead of the subordination and exploitation by colonial motherlands with their capitals in Madrid and Lisbon.

These political, administrative, and economic requirements were met by the Portuguese royal court by accepting them and consequently leading the biggest Portuguese colony – Brazil toward the creation of political nationhood as an independent state (Kingdom in 1815, Empire in 1822, and Republic in 1889) on peaceful way but with a minimum of social change. This characteristic was common for almost all ex-Iberian colonies in Latin America (Mezo/Central- and South America): political independence did not change a social framework and relations within society from Mexico to Cape Horn.

Differently to Portugal, Spain, on the other hand, adopted from the very beginning of the Latin American liberation movements the policy of military confrontation with the nationalists for the sake of eliminating all political, administrative, and economic demands of its Latin American colonies, in fact, by the brutal way. Such policy, however, directly provoked the revolutions for independence across both Central America and South America. As a result, within the South American Spanish colonies, there were two revolutionary movements for independence against the administration in Madrid: 1) The southern revolution going from Buenos Aires toward Peru via Chile and led by San Martín’s Army of Argentinians and Bernardo O’Higgins’ Chileans (Battle of Maipu in Chile in 1818) attacking Lima – the capital of Peru; and 2) The northern revolution that was more seriously harassed by the Spanish army, was headed by Venezuelans Simon Bolívar and Antonio José de Sucre (Battle of Boyacá in 1819 in New Granada/North Colombia) and back to Venezuela. Nevertheless, both movements met each other in Peru – at that time the fortress of Spanish colonial rule in America.

In Central America, the Mexican revolution of independence was of its own nature: it started as a social uprising but then became a prolonged counter-revolution, and ultimately was finished as a successful power seizure by the conservative military commander Iturbide who became enthroned as Emperor Agustín I.

The independence wars in Latin America (1808−1826) as a result brought independence for ex-colonies but this independence was essentially only of a political nature which, in fact, only transferred political-administrative authority from the colonial power to domestic landlords with minimal social and economic change within the society which structure left as it was during colonial time. Nevertheless, the independence wars across the continent ended with great loss of both life and property. In addition, revolutionary and counter-revolutionary terror followed by insecurity resulted in a struggle between the owners of capital and the labor force that was very difficult to restore the pre-war economy.

Very soon after the wars of liberation started a violent struggle between the political center and surrounding regions, ideas of free trade and protection, agriculturalists, mine-owners, and industrialists, supporters of cheap imports vs. proponents of national production and export. For instance, the violent struggle between liberals and conservatives lasted in Colombia for more than a century. Finally, the business vacuum in Latin America left by the Spanish colonial administration was soon covered by Western (British, US, French) merchants within the general trend of cheap import and primary export. All new Latin American nations were export economies founded on the exploitation of cheap land and labor for the production of raw materials for Western industries and the global market. National industries were left underdeveloped while common economic institutions were mine, ranch, and plantation. Latin America in 1913 experienced the biggest foreign investment from the UK (more than 50% out of the total) followed by the USA, France, and Germany.

From the 1880s, massive immigration of both foreign capital and manpower occurred which fostered economic growth. For instance, in both Brazil and Argentina, the Italians were at the top of the immigration number followed by Portuguese immigrants to Brazil and Spanish to Argentina.

Unfortunately, the national economic development of Latin America soon after gaining political independence was impossible due to the old-preserved social structure of the new political unities as an impoverished population from the villages did not provide substantial support for the local industry in the cities. The essence was that the old West European (Spanish, Portuguese, French, Dutch, and British) colonial system of production and social relations founded on it remained without serious changes. In practice, it meant that two existing social strata were sharply divided: 1) Privileged minority (of exploitation) who monopolized both civil offices and the land for production followed by 2) Hardly surviving peasants and industrial workers.

Economically speaking, in the 19th century emerged a new power social-economic basement – hacienda, the great land estate (much bigger than a ranch) that was utilizing much more land compared to invested capital surviving by a cheap labor of both natures: servile and seasonal. On one hand, slavery, and the slave trade were soon abolished in all newly proclaimed independent states of Spanish Latin America (by the 1850s). However, in Portuguese-speaking Brazil, slavery, on the other hand, lasted until 1888. Nevertheless, as it was in the pre-colonial time, the Negros (African Blacks), Mulattos (White-Blacks), and Mestizos (White-Indians), were left at the bottom of the social structure.[1] In fact, all of these three socioeconomic groups became peons (In Europe of the Middle Ages – serfs) – peasants allowing a small portion of land within the territory of a hacienda in return for hard labor work on the land. After the independence wars, the new political-administrative establishment in Latin America tended to reduce as it was impossible, at least by the law, racial discrimination based on social, economic, and ideological foundations which in practice did not work properly. The new political establishment intended to integrate native Indians into the newly established nations (based on the West European colonial division) by, in fact, forcing them to participate in post-colonial economic production. In practice, such policy presumed to divide the communal lands among individual owners (agrarian reform) which in theory has to benefit the native Indians. However, it became obvious in the practice that such agrarian reform just strengthened Indian white neighbors.

As in many other similar cases, concerning Latin America, the wars of independence created local war leaders (caudillo) who introduced military-political structure above civilian institutions. However, caudillo was at the beginning just a military leader, he, as well as, soon occupied other social and political roles becoming, in fact, a national dictator, who represented economic and national interests. He, also, became a distributor of patronage (office and land) as being at the top of a patron-client structure.[2] Up to WWI, Latin America passed through a time of brutal policy of caudillismo, when, for instance, Santa Anna in Mexico, Rosas in Argentina, Páez in Venezuela, etc., have been governing their states as a private possession (extended hacienda) like the medieval rulers in Europe.

Nevertheless, the practice of caudillismo was in some cases subject to constitutional challenge. The number of presidents in many Latin American new nations was changed frequently as in the case, for example, Mexico, which had 30 presidents during the first half of the century of its independence. A Mexican president Benito Juárez was fighting the forces of privileged social strata united together with French imperialists who for a short period succeeded in installing their puppet Emperor Maximilian I, on the throne.[3] Benito Juárez by 1867 subordinated both the Roman Catholic Church and Mexican armed forces to the level of secular state. However, Mexican liberals, who provided their country with a higher level of political freedom, at the same time were not able to provide economic prosperity and higher living standards for the citizens. Within the framework of one decade, the liberals paid way for the long-time political authoritarian regime of Porfirio Díaz.[4] His presidency experienced enormous economic progress but, however, making the country dependent on foreign capital investment and left the majority of the citizens in terrible poverty. Such an economic situation provoked in 1910 Mexico’s second revolution.

In essence, within the whole territory of Latin America, economic growth directly assisted in undermining the political regimes that promoted it. There were two reasons for including Latin America into the global market around 1900: 1) A huge investment in agriculture and mines by West European countries and the USA, and 2) Massive West European emigration (primarily from Italy, Spain, and Portugal). There was a “pampas’ revolution” in Argentina which made the country a global producer of meat and grain. Some other Latin American countries, like Mexico, Brazil, and Chile, succeeded in modernizing and commercializing economic production. At the same time, they speeded the export of food and raw materials due to and via railways and docks.

However, due to unbalanced economic dependence, there were too many risks and failures. For instance, the famous silver mine (and city) of Potosí during the Spanish colonial exploitation, declined in the 19th century to be only a simple town in the Andes. There was a nitrate boom in production from 1880 to 1919 due to the Chilean territorial gains from Peru (province of Tarapaca) and Bolivia (province of Antofagasta) in the War of the Pacific from 1879 to 1883. Nonetheless, after WWI, the Chilean nitrates industry declined due to synthetic subsidies. In 1914, oil was discovered in Venezuela which in the interwar period (1918−1939) produced extremal differences between the wealthy and poor people. There were towns of Iquitos in Peru and Manaus in Brazil that for a short period promoted them into global prominence due to the rubber production.

All these economic events promoted a social-living change in society primarily having a direct impact on the speedy process of urbanization followed by the emergence of new social groups whose everyday life strictly depended on contemporary technology (concerning production) and trade (in essence in global terms). That was, in fact, a Latin American (urban) middle class that emerged not belonging either to landlords or peasants.

Regarding political developments in Latin America in the 19th century, the people of the continent have been in wars not only for their national liberation against Spanish and Portuguese colonial authorities but, as well as against each other for territorial gains. Only Brazil was the exception that fragmentation did not swiftly follow emancipation/independence, which concerning Latin America led finally to the twenty independent states (political unities). Boundary disputes have been occasionally on the agenda causing some major wars between the Latin American republics. That was, for instance, the case with the Mexican-USA War from 1846 to 1848 which resulted in the secession of Texas, which cost Mexico California and in sum 40% of the Mexican original state territory. It was the 1864−1870 Paraguayan War, in which three Atlantic-facing states (Brazil, Uruguay, and Argentina) defeated and ruined Paraguay – a country in which native Indians succeeded in preserving their ethnocultural identity.[5] This war was followed by the 1879−1883 War of the Pacific when Chile, Peru, and Bolivia joined the battle for the sake of controlling the important Atacama Desert rich in nitrite deposits. Finally, in 1883, Chilean military victory over Peru and Bolivia followed by the accession of lands from both of them, made Chile to be the major Pacific power. As rich natural nitrite deposits were annexed in both wars in the north, Chile enjoyed the next five decades with a real economic boom.

Dr. Vladislav B. Sotirovic, Ex-University Professor, Research Fellow at Centre for Geostrategic Studies, Belgrade, Serbia

3  June 2024

Source: countercurrents.org

The Military-Industrial Complex Is Killing Us All

By David Vine & Theresa (Isa) Arriola

We need to talk about what bombs do in war. Bombs shred flesh. Bombs shatter bones. Bombs dismember. Bombs cause brains, lungs, and other organs to shake so violently they bleed, rupture, and cease functioning. Bombs injure. Bombs kill. Bombs destroy.

Bombs also make people rich.

When a bomb explodes, someone profits. And when someone profits, bombs claim more unseen victims. Every dollar spent on a bomb is a dollar not spent saving a life from a preventable death, a dollar not spent curing cancer, a dollar not spent educating children. That’s why, so long ago, retired five-star general and President Dwight D. Eisenhower rightly called spending on bombs and all things military a “theft.”

The perpetrator of that theft is perhaps the world’s most overlooked destructive force. It looms unnoticed behind so many major problems in the United States and the world today. Eisenhower famously warned Americans about it in his 1961 farewell address, calling it for the first time “the military-industrial complex,” or the MIC.

Start with the fact that, thanks to the MIC’s ability to hijack the federal budget, total annual military spending is far larger than most people realize: around $1,500,000,000,000 ($1.5 trillion). Contrary to what the MIC scares us into believing, that incomprehensibly large figure is monstrously out of proportion to the few military threats facing the United States. One-and-a-half trillion dollars is about double what Congress spends annually on all non-military purposes combined.

Calling this massive transfer of wealth a “theft” is no exaggeration, since it’s taken from pressing needs like ending hunger and homelessness, offering free college and pre-K, providing universal health care, and building a green energy infrastructure to save ourselves from climate change. Virtually every major problem touched by federal resources could be ameliorated or solved with fractions of the cash claimed by the MIC. The money is there.

The bulk of our taxpayer dollars are seized by a relatively small group of corporate war profiteers led by the five biggest companies profiting off the war industry: Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, Raytheon (RTX), Boeing, and General Dynamics. As those companies have profited, the MIC has sowed incomprehensible destruction globally, keeping the United States locked in endless wars that, since 2001, have killed an estimated 4.5 million people, injured tens of millions more, and displaced at least 38 million, according to Brown University’s Costs of War Project.

The MIC’s hidden domination of our lives must end, which means we must dismantle it. That may sound totally unrealistic, even fantastical. It is not. And by the way, we’re talking about dismantling the MIC, not the military itself. (Most members of the military are, in fact, among that the MIC’s victims.)

While profit has long been part of war, the MIC is a relatively new, post-World War II phenomenon that formed thanks to a series of choices made over time. Like other processes, like other choices, they can be reversed and the MIC can be dismantled.

The question, of course, is how?

The Emergence of a Monster

To face what it would take to dismantle the MIC, it’s first necessary to understand how it was born and what it looks like today. Given its startling size and intricacy, we and a team of colleagues created a series of graphics to help visualize the MIC and the harm it inflicts, which we’re sharing publicly for the first time.

The MIC was born after World War II from, as Eisenhower explained, the “conjunction of an immense military establishment” — the Pentagon, the armed forces, intelligence agencies, and others — “and a large arms industry.” Those two forces, the military and the industrial, united with Congress to form an unholy “Iron Triangle” or what some scholars believe Eisenhower initially and more accurately called the military-industrialcongressional complex. To this day those three have remained the heart of the MIC, locked in a self-perpetuating cycle of legalized corruption (that also features all too many illegalities).

The basic system works like this: First, Congress takes exorbitant sums of money from us taxpayers every year and gives it to the Pentagon. Second, the Pentagon, at Congress’s direction, turns huge chunks of that money over to weapons makers and other corporations via all too lucrative contracts, gifting them tens of billions of dollars in profits. Third, those contractors then use a portion of the profits to lobby Congress for yet more Pentagon contracts, which Congress is generally thrilled to provide, perpetuating a seemingly endless cycle.

But the MIC is more complicated and insidious than that. In what’s effectively a system of legalized bribery, campaign donations regularly help boost Pentagon budgets and ensure the awarding of yet more lucrative contracts, often benefiting a small number of contractors in a congressional district or state. Such contractors make their case with the help of a virtual army of more than 900 Washington-based lobbyists. Many of them are former Pentagon officials, or former members of Congress or congressional staffers, hired through a “revolving door” that takes advantage of their ability to lobby former colleagues. Such contractors also donate to think tanks and university centers willing to support increased Pentagon spending, weapons programs, and a hyper-militarized foreign policy. Ads are another way to push weapons programs on elected officials.

Such weapons makers also spread their manufacturing among as many Congressional districts as possible, allowing senators and representatives to claim credit for jobs created. MIC jobs, in turn, often create cycles of dependency in low-income communities that have few other economic drivers, effectively buying the support of locals.

For their part, contractors regularly engage in legalized price gouging, overcharging taxpayers for all manner of weapons and equipment. In other cases, contractor fraud literally steals taxpayer money. The Pentagon is the only government agency that has never passed an audit — meaning it literally can’t keep track of its money and assets — yet it still receives more from Congress than every other government agency combined.

As a system, the MIC ensures that Pentagon spending and military policy are driven by contractors’ search for ever-higher profits and the reelection desires of members of Congress, not by any assessment of how to best defend the country. The resulting military is unsurprisingly shoddy, especially given the money spent. Americans should pray it never actually has to defend the United States.

No other industry — not even Big Pharma or Big Oil — can match the power of the MIC in shaping national policy and dominating spending. Military spending is, in fact, now larger (adjusting for inflation) than at the height of the wars in Vietnam, Afghanistan, or Iraq, or, in fact, at any time since World War II, despite the absence of a threat remotely justifying such spending. Many now realize that the primary beneficiary of more than 22 years of endless U.S. wars in this century has been the industrial part of the MIC, which has made hundreds of billions of dollars since 2001. “Who Won in Afghanistan? Private Contractors” was the Wall Street Journal‘s all too apt headline in 2021.

Endless Wars, Endless Death, Endless Destruction

“Afghanistan” in that headline could have been replaced by Korea, Vietnam, or Iraq, among other seemingly endless U.S. wars since World War II. That the MIC has profited off them is no coincidence. It has helped drive the country into conflicts in countries ranging from Korea, Vietnam, Cambodia, and Laos, to El Salvador, Guatemala, Panama, and Grenada, to Afghanistan, Libya, Somalia, and so many others.

Deaths and injuries from such wars have reached the tens of millions. The number of estimated deaths from the post-9/11 wars in Afghanistan, Iraq, Pakistan, Syria, and Yemen is eerily similar to that from the wars in Vietnam, Laos, and Cambodia: 4.5 million.

The numbers are so large that they can become numbing. The Irish poet Pádraig Ó Tuama helps us remember to focus on:

one life
one life
one life
one life
one life

because each time
is the first time
that that life
has been taken.

The Environmental Toll

The MIC’s damage extends to often irreparable environmental harm, involving the poisoning of ecosystems, devastating biodiversity loss, and the U.S. military’s carbon footprint, which is larger than that of any other organization on earth. At war or in daily training, the MIC has literally fueled global heating and climate change through the burning of fuels to run bases, operate vehicles, and produce weaponry.

The MIC’s human and environmental costs are particularly invisible outside the continental United States. In U.S. territories and other political “grey zones,” investments in military infrastructure and technologies rely in part on the second-class citizenship of Indigenous communities, often dependent on the military for their livelihoods.

Endless Wars at Home

As the MIC has fueled wars abroad, so it has fueled militarization domestically. Why, for example, have domestic police forces become so militarized? At least part of the answer: since 1990, Congress has allowed the Pentagon to transfer its “excess” weaponry and equipment (including tanks and drones) to local law enforcement agencies. These transfers conveniently allow the Pentagon and its contractors to ask Congress for replacement purchases, further fueling the MIC.

Seeking new profits from new markets, contractors have also increasingly hawked their military products directly to SWAT teams and other police forces, border patrol outfits, and prison systems. Politicians and corporations have poured billions of dollars into border militarization and mass incarceration, helping fuel the rise of the lucrative “border-industrial complex” and “prison-industrial complex,” respectively. Domestic militarization has disproportionately harmed BlackLatino, and Indigenous communities.

An Existential Threat

Some will defend the military-industrial complex by insisting that we need its jobs; some by claiming it’s keeping Ukrainians alive and protecting the rest of Europe from Vladimir Putin’s Russia; some by warning about China. Each of those arguments is an example of the degree to which the MIC’s power relies on systematically manufacturing fear, threats, and crises that help enrich arms merchants and others in the MIC by driving ever more military spending and war (despite a nearly unbroken record of catastrophic failure when it comes to nearly every U.S. conflict since World War II).

The argument that current levels of military spending must be maintained for “the jobs” should be laughable. No military should be a jobs program. While the country needs job programs, military spending has proven to be a poor job creator or an engine of economic growth. Research shows it creates far fewer jobs than comparable investments in health care, education, or infrastructure.

U.S. weaponry has aided Ukrainian self-defense, though the weapons manufacturers are anything but altruists. If they truly cared about Ukrainians, they would have forgone any profits, leaving more money for humanitarian aid to that country. Instead, they’ve used that war, as they have Israel’s genocidal war on Gaza and growing tensions in the Pacific, to cynically inflate their profits and stock prices dramatically.

Discard the fearmongering and it should be clear that the Russian military has demonstrated its weakness, its inability to decisively conquer territory near its own borders, let alone march into Europe. In fact, both the Russian and Chinese militaries pose no conventional military threat to the United States. The Russian military’s annual budget is one-tenth or less than the size of the U.S. one. China’s military budget is one-third to one-half its size. The disparities are far larger if you combine the U.S. military budget with those of its NATO and Asian allies.

Despite this, members of the MIC are increasingly encouraging direct confrontations with Russia and China, aided by Putin’s war and China’s own provocations. In the “Indo-Pacific” (as the military calls it), the MIC is continuing to cash in as the Pentagon builds up bases and forces surrounding China in Australia, Guam, the Federated States of Micronesia, Japan, the Marshall Islands, the Northern Mariana Islands, Palau, Papua New Guinea, and the Philippines.

Such steps and a similar buildup in Europe are only encouraging China and Russia to strengthen their own militaries. (Just imagine how American politicians would respond if China or Russia were to build a single military base anywhere close to this country’s borders.) While all of this is increasingly profitable for the MIC, it is heightening the risk of a military clash that could spiral into a potentially species-ending nuclear war between the United States and China, Russia, or both.

The Urgency of Dismantling

The urgency of dismantling the military-industrial complex should be clear. The future of the species and planet depends on it.

The most obvious way to weaken the MIC would be to starve it of its lifeblood, our tax dollars. Few noticed that, after leaving office, former Trump-era Pentagon chief Christopher Miller called for cutting the Pentagon’s budget in half. Yes, in half.

Even a 30% cut — as happened all too briefly after the Cold War ended in 1991 — would free hundreds of billions of dollars annually. Imagine how such sums could build safer, healthier, more secure lives in this country, including a just economic transition for any military personnel and contractors losing jobs. And mind you, that military budget would still be significantly larger than China’s, or Russia’s, Iran’s, and North Korea’s combined.

Of course, even thinking about cutting the Pentagon budget is difficult because the MIC has captured both political parties, virtually guaranteeing ever-rising military spending. Which brings us back to the puzzle of how to dismantle the MIC as a system.

In short, we’re working on the answers. With the diverse group of experts who helped produce this article’s graphics, we’re exploring, among other ideas, divestment campaigns and lawsuits; banning war profiteering; regulating or nationalizing weapons manufacturers; and converting parts of the military into an unarmed disaster relief, public health, and infrastructure force.

Though all too many of us will continue to believe that dismantling the MIC is unrealistic, given the threats facing us, it’s time to think as boldly as possible about how to roll back its power, resist the invented notion that war is inevitable, and build the world we want to see. Just as past movements reduced the power of Big Tobacco and the railroad barons, just as some are now taking on Big Pharma, Big Tech, and the prison-industrial complex, so we must take on the MIC to build a world focused on making human lives rich (in every sense) rather than one focused on bombs and other weaponry that brings wealth to a select few who benefit from death.

David Vine, a TomDispatch regular and professor of anthropology at American University, is the author most recently of The United States of War: A Global History of America’s Endless Conflicts, from Columbus to the Islamic State.

Theresa (Isa) Arriola is an assistant professor in the department of sociology and anthropology at Concordia University.

3  June 2024

Source: countercurrents.org