By Bharat Dogra
Syria is a country where several famous civilizations flourished and diverse communities learnt to co-exist peacefully. However the history of Syria from 2011 to 2024 is a very tragic chapter in the history of this country. For the greater part of this period this country has been in the middle of civil war conditions, and still there is no assurance that the civil war has ended– even though the predominant aim of rebel groups to oust the Assad regime has been achieved, other flash points can emerge.
It has been estimated that in a population of nearly 25 million people almost half the total number of people have been displaced externally and internally for varying periods in the course of this civil war while around half a million people have perished, possibly more if indirect impacts are also added.
There was local resistance against violations of human rights and resentment that the Assad family had ruled for too long over several decades. Then there were a lot of foreign interventions on both sides.
Predictably those by the west were covered up as interventions for saving democracy and human rights, but keeping in view the enormous costs in terms of human life, this also looks like a case of a country getting destroyed on a large-scale in the course of many self-proclaimed efforts being made to save it. If democracy is to be protected, can’t safer, peaceful and transparent methods be found, so that the views of both sides are properly heard and understood, increasing the chances of peaceful solutions being found at an early stage, led by the United Nations? Around 2011 there were several protests against the ruling regime led by President Bashar-al Assad. A diversity of rebel groups emerged. The USA, its allies and Turkey extended military and other help to certain sections of rebels. The USA arranged extensive military training for rebels. At one stage this was costing the CIA about a billion dollars a year, as reported by the Washington Post in 2015. The New York Times referred to this operation, called Operation Sycamore, as “one of the most comprehensive efforts to arm and train rebels since the agency’s (CIA’s) program arming the mujahedeens in Afghanistan during the 1980s” under operation Cyclone.
Turkey also extended extensive help to some rebel groups. The bigger rebel groups carved out certain areas under their control, helped by foreign powers who were also eager to get control of oil-rich areas. Soon it became clear that it is the sectarian militant groups which were emerging as the strongest groups with the most area and forces under their control. A lot of the arms given to the rebel groups in general by the US were also reaching these stronger sectarian groups in various ways.
Both USA and Israel shared a common aim with these sectarian militant groups—the ouster by one means or the other of the Assad regime which was seen to be firmly allied with Iran, Hezbollah and Russia, apart from being supportive towards the Palestinian cause. In fact but for the support provided by Russia, particularly in the form of air strikes, the Assad regime may have fallen several years back to US assisted rebel forces.
Among the various sectarian militant groups (there were also some non-sectarian ones) the HTS soon emerged as the most powerful. The roots of this group as well as its leader Jolani can be traced to the AQ and the Islamic State which were more clearly visible in its earlier version but in the later stage it combined with other groups to form HTS as a means of getting better support and recognition. However its ideological base and sectarian thinking have deeper roots and do not go away easily, although these may be played down for some time.
The attacks of these rebel groups, air attacks of Israel and the USA and the occasional military incursions of Turkey created immense problems for the regime as well as for people. In addition the USA and its close allies imposed very stringent and harmful sanctions on Syria. In 2022 the Special Rapporteur of the UNO Alena Douhan stated in her report after visiting Syria that these sanctions have devastating impacts on nearly all categories of human rights and the Syrian people have to stay in life-threatening conditions with severe shortages of drinking water, electricity, food and fuel. The report added that the sanctions “have eroded to the level of total extinction the purchasing power” of many people who “find themselves in a prolonged state of survival mode.” This report stated quite clearly that maintaining “unilateral sanctions amid the current catastrophic and still-deteriorating situation in Syria may amount to crimes against humanity against all Syrian people.” This report called for “lifting long-lasting unilateral sanctions suffocating Syrian people.”
However the sanctions, the attacks and the mass distress of people continued. In recent times the Israeli air attacks increased, most particularly in the early days of November 2024.
Later in the month as soon as Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire was reached, leading rebel groups launched their attack.
There have been reports that these attacks were not just welcomed by Israel but also received some help from Israel. Writing in Antiwar.com (December 2, 2024, report titled ‘Syrian Islamists court Israel with talk of peace deal), Jason Ditz pointed out,“ Former Israeli military intelligence officer Lt. Mordechai Kedar has added fuel to claims that Israel has ties with the Syrian Islamist fighters who have taken the city of Aleppo…Lt. Kedar says he is in constant touch with the Islamists and they do not consider Israel an enemy. Lt. Kedar said he received detailed list of required items from the Islamist forces to the Israeli government.”
If Israel helped the rebel forces in their attacks recently, then this would not have been the first time such help was extended. Former Israeli Army Chief Gabi Eisenkot admitted in 2019 that Israel had supplied weapons to the Syrian Islamists including the Nusra Front (which later became the HTS). In addition there have been reports of Israel extending medical and related help to the rebel groups.
Hence sections of the rebel groups clearly had the help, support and ‘go-ahead’ signals of not just Turkey but other powerful countries as well. Now that the Assad regime has been ousted, there is a situation of great uncertainty and also a fear that Israel which has emerged much stronger from these events may use the new situation to increase its aggression further and if some of the sectarian rebel groups also contribute to such an agenda, in return for strengthening their hold over some parts, this will be very tragic. Hence the forces of peace and h justice at world level should watch the emerging situation very carefully.
Syria’s events again reveal the dangers of opportunistic use of terrorism to suit the interests of powerful countries
Recent events in Syria have once again revealed the dangers of dealing with terrorism and terrorist groups in very opportunistic ways by powerful countries to suit their narrow interests at any point of time.
The main rebel group which played the most leading role in ousting the Assad regime is HTS and its topmost leader is Abu Mohammad al-Jolani. HTS is designated as a terrorist group by the USA and close allies. In its previous version HTS was known as the Nusra front, then led even more fiercely and violently by the same Jolani. At that time also it was designated a terrorist organization by the USA and close allies. More specifically Jolani was listed by the US State Department as a ‘Specially Designated Global Terrorist’ and a reward of up to $10 million was offered to anyone willing to offer information leading to his capture. Surely in terms of the dangers posed by leading terrorists his ranking must have been very high for such a big reward to be offered for information leading to his capture. This was not surprising considering his important role earlier in Al Qaeda (AQ) and the Islamic State and he was sent to Syria as the topmost representative of the Islamic State.
However, at a certain stage, some commonality developed between him and western interests as both aimed for overthrowing the Assad regime as a high priority objective and the USA was spending a lot of money for military training and arms for these groups. It is at this stage that Jolani started re-inventing himself as a figure who could be more acceptable to western countries and for this it was important to distance himself from his AQ background. Hence the name of his organization was changed twice and there were mergers with other groups.
More recently as he emerged as the most powerful leader of the rebels groups who ousted the Assad regime, western think tanks and experts have been busy in presenting him in more moderate colors and then leading western media have been publishing the selected views of these experts. The words ‘pragmatic radical’ or something similar to this are now more likely to be used to describe him, but there is hardly any solid grounds for reassuring that he and his group are actually likely to opt for an agenda of peaceful coexistence for various religious and social groups.
The fast growing military strength of groups like HTS could not have taken place without active help from some countries willing to provide arms and funds. Of course Turkey has some rebel groups which it controls and arms, but it is not known if it has extended such help to HTS also. So from where has HTS been getting its arms, and how this could increase so significantly more recently? Is it merely a coincidence that the recent aggression by HTS started at almost the same time that the Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire was reached? Why did Israel make a sudden increase in its air attacks on Syria just before this?
It appears that several recent events were linked in more ways than has been generally reported, and the military advance of HTS had significant backing from powerful forces which preferred to give the support silently. After all, it would have appeared very strange, and of course would have been illegal, if a terrorist, for information leading to whose capture there was a reward of $ 10 million, was helped openly.
However there are many lessons from history that supporting terror groups to achieve narrow short-term objectives creates many more problems later on. The most obvious example of this was seen in the context of the arming and training of the mujahedeens to fight against the Soviet army in Afghanistan. This led later to the proliferation of terror groups and their attacks in many parts of the world including in the USA and other western countries which are close allies of the USA.
Of course it will be really good if Jolani genuinely becomes a man committed to peace and plurality. This would be certainly welcomed. But the problem is that there is no real evidence of any such change at all and the sources from where he derives his power and following are far, far away from the path of peace and plurality.
Hence a lot of caution is advisable against the narrow vision based path of opportunistically using terror groups for narrow ends and ignoring the dangers inherent in such strategies.
The writer is Honorary Convener, Campaign to Save Earth Now. His recent books include Planet in Peril, Protecting Earth for Children, Man over Machine and A Day in 2071.
Recent Events in Syria Seen from Perspective of Peace and Justice
There are several important aspects of recent events in Syria, but what is particularly important is to examine them from a perspective of peace and justice. Do these events take us a significant step forward on the path of peace and justice, or do these events take us backwards, or is the situation too uncertain just now to be able to say anything with certainty?
Those who have been opposed to the Assad regime in Syria have cited its human rights violations to argue that no tears need to be shed over its sudden and dramatic ouster. However these critics of the outgoing regime must face the wider question whether there are any prospects of the outgoing regime being replaced by anything better from the perspective of human rights. The situation is still evolving, but the main rebel group with its previous violent and sectarian record provides hardly any hope of any change for the better.
Whatever its other failures, the Assad regime had a well-established record of providing pluralist governance under which various communities with diverse faiths and cultures—Shias, Sunnis, Christians, others– could co-exist without discrimination and without being tormented on the basis of faith or sect. This cannot be said of the main rebel group HTS, with its Al-Qaeda (AQ) origins, which may have toned down its war cries recently to gain wider acceptability but its record speaks of being intolerant towards other faiths or sects, in particular for its hostility towards the Shias. The Christian minority in Syria, which includes descendants of some of the earliest Christians, is also most unlikely to feel safe for long under any future government that may be dominated by the HTS.
Due to the centrality of the Palestine issue in this region and the immense sufferings of the Palestinians in recent times, questions arise regarding the impact of the recent changes in Syria on the Palestinians. Clearly the situation of the Palestinians has weakened as the axis of resistance which has been providing support and solidarity to the Palestinian cause has been weakened.
Several reports have appeared regarding a relationship of cooperation and understanding between the Syrian rebel forces including the HTS and Israel. Rebel leaders interviewed on Israeli media have stated—we love Israel and we were never its enemies. Jason Ditz, editor of Antiwar.com has written recently on December 7, “Over the past several days it has been reported that HTS leader Abu Mohammad al-Jolani was keen to take over not only Syria but Lebanon as well, and had offered to allow Israel to open embassies in both Damascus and Beirut after they take these.”
While a big majority of the Palestinians are Sunni Muslims, it is in fact the predominantly Shia axis of resistance which has been in the frontlines of providing the most active help to the Palestinians and its weakening is a setback for the Palestinian resistance too, at least in the short-term. At the same time, the recent events have strengthened the position of Israel considerably.
The demise of the Assad regime has been welcomed by some stating that its human rights record was very bad. At the same time it should be stated that the human rights record of the leading rebel groups has also been terrible. The UN documented arbitrary detentions, executions of opponents and other human rights violations in HTS controlled areas while a report by Human Rights Watch has brought out the terrible human rights situation prevailing in the areas of the rebel groups controlled by Turkey.
While there is a lot of uncertainty regarding what kind of new government will emerge in Syria, there are no strong reasons to suggest that from a perspective of peace and justice it will be a better government compared to the ousted regime.
Some people may say that the end of civil war is always good and at least this should be celebrated. Of course end of any civil war is always good but the problem is that there is no indication just now that the Syrian civil war has ended. As a rebel group known for its record of sectarian violence is in the lead just now and various interests are competing for power and economic gains including control of oil resources, it remains to be seen whether civil war ends or continues or even extends beyond Syria.
The Kurds as minority groups have suffered a lot in the past and hence deserve sympathy. However to retain this sympathy they must also act in responsible ways. Is it possible if some of them are controlled by more powerful countries and follow their agenda? Turkey’s President Erdogan has already shown the extent of his hostility towards the Kurds and it remains to be seen how this hostility may clash with the USA in the context of the US- guided Kurd groups.
All in all, there is hardly any room for celebration just now. Of course the prisoners who have been freed certainly have cause to celebrate. The Sunnis who constitute a big majority of population in Syria can celebrate for their own narrow reasons of a minority Shia leadership regime being ousted after several decades. But beyond this, from a wider perspective of justice and peace, there is no reason yet to see recent events as a victory for the forces of peace and justice.
Bharat Dogra is Honorary Convener, Campaign to Save Earth Now.
10 December 2024
Source: countercurrents.org