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By V.A. Mohamad Ashrof

Zionists cling to and ceaselessly trumpet the belief—reflected in global media—that Jews form a distinct ethnic group, that Israel is the fulfilment of God’s promise to Abraham, and that the Jews living in Israel today are the direct descendants of King David. A book that throws a wrench into this narrative is ‘The Invention of the Jewish People ’, published in 2009. (1)

This book sent shockwaves through Israeli academia. Shlomo Sand, a historian at Tel Aviv University, boldly challenges the very foundation of Israel’s national ideology in his hard-hitting 332-page work. An English translation of Sand’s book was published in the US and Britain in 2009. The French translation, published by Layard in 2010, was hailed as the best work in modern history and politics. The book has also been translated into Arabic, Turkish, Japanese, and Indonesian, spreading like wildfire across intellectual circles.

Born in Austria in 1946, Sand moved to Israel with his family in 1948.

Origins of Ashkenazi Jews

In the 1920s, shortly after World War I, Henry Ford, founder of the Ford Motor Company, published a four-volume work called The International Jew, (2) which argued that only a fraction of contemporary Jews was of ancient biblical Jewish heritage. Of course, Ford’s work is riddled with anti-Semitic propaganda and has been soundly discredited by scholars. In 1951, Colonel John Beatty, a US military intelligence officer, published The Iron Curtain Over America (3), a 265-page book presenting evidence that Eastern European Jews were of Khazar-Mongol descent and had no genetic connection to the Israelites.

This theory was later expanded upon in The Thirteenth Tribe (4), published in 1976 by world-renowned author Arthur Koestler (1905-1983). Koestler meticulously argued that Ashkenazi Jews were Khazars who converted to Judaism in the 8th century AD in the Caucasus region. He asserted that Ashkenazi Jews had no historical connection to the Jews of biblical tradition, and that European anti-semitism was built on a house of cards sustained by ignorance. One of Koestler’s key objectives was to demonstrate that European Jews were not the Palestinian Jews of biblical lore, thus rendering accusations of Christ-killing against Jews as baseless as a mirage in the desert. It is crucial to note that nine out of ten modern Jews belong to the Ashkenazi lineage.

The Khazars, originally from the Caucasus, later migrated westward, settling in present-day Hungary, Ukraine, Poland, Belarus, Lithuania, and Germany. The Jews of Poland, Lithuania, and Romania, who speak Yiddish, are all of Khazar origin.

Sand traces the roots of Eastern European Jewry to the Khazar Empire. (5) In 740 AD, the Khazar ruler Bulan took the plunge and converted to Judaism, with many of his subjects following suit. Jewish history recognizes the Khazar state as a Jewish state in its own right.

Sand’s Findings

Sand opens his study of Jewish nationalism with a quote from Karl Deiss: “A nation is a people who agree on a common error about their origin and who are united in common hostility towards their neighbours.” (6)

Nationalist fervour swept through Germany, giving rise to the infamous slogan “Germany for the Germans,” which marginalized Jews, Slavs, and Roma. At the same time, nationalism gained ground in Italy and Greece, where a shared language and culture formed the backbone of national identity. Sand argues that modern Jewish nationalism was reverse-engineered, influenced by German nationalism in the mid-19th century. (7) It was historian Heinrich Graetz who wove the tale of an ancient Jewish dynasty, the mass expulsion of the Jews, and their centuries-long wandering. (8) This historical fabrication was inspired by German nationalism.

Like other European national groups, Zionists painted a golden past for themselves, claiming an uninterrupted presence since antiquity. (9) Sand argues that the Nazi image of Jews as bloodsuckers was borrowed and repurposed by Zionist thinkers. When Jewish Zionist thought took root in the 1840s, the Greek concept of racial purity was at its core. He suggests that Hitler’s genocidal ideology drew inspiration from the racial theories embraced by Zionists.

Graetz coined the term ancient people for the Jews, portraying them as a lost tribe yearning for home after the destruction of Canaan. (10) Later, Moses Hess’s 1862 work Rome and Jerusalem: The Last National Question fully reflected the racial ideologies gaining traction in Europe. (11)

Since there is no historical evidence that Jews were forcibly expelled en masse, the idea of their rightful return to Israel falls apart like a house of cards, Sand observes. (12) Jewish conversion was widespread under the influence of Hellenistic culture. (13) The Septuagint, a Greek translation of the Old Testament, was produced as part of this process. The Jewish historian Josephus followed the same agenda. (14) Later, Zionism adopted the Christian narrative of Jewish exile. (15)

Sand dismantles the claim made by scholars like Martin Goodman that Jews discouraged conversion. (16) He further highlights that most ancient Jewish farmers later converted to Islam, a fact even acknowledged by Israel’s first Prime Minister, David Ben-Gurion. (17)

The Fallacy of Zionist Racism

Zionism is built on the flimsy foundation that Jews form a distinct ethnic group. In reality, Judaism has survived through a melting pot of intermarriages and conversions.

Theodor Herzl, the father of Zionism, was not religious, yet he clung to the notion that Jews were an ethnic group. Christian Zionism, too, developed its theology based on this ethnic distinction.

The Zionist movement sprang to life in the 1850s in Central and Eastern Europe, amid a tide of nationalist sentiment stretching from Vienna to Odessa. (18) Nathan Birnbaum, who coined the term Zionism, was an unabashed racist. Other early Zionist intellectuals, including Max Nordau, Martin Buber, Vladimir Jabotinsky, and Arthur Ruppin, wore their racism on their sleeves. (19)

Herzl, though secular, readily embraced the religious notion that Israel was a divine promise to the Jews through Abraham. Under this ideology, any Jew, regardless of nationality, had a golden ticket to Israeli citizenship.

But Who Is a Jew?

From Israel’s inception, the question of Jewish identity has been a legal quagmire. (20) In 1962, a Catholic priest of Jewish origin sought recognition as a Jew by nationality, but the High Court slammed the door shut on his claim. (21) The 1968 Law of Return declared that only those born to a Jewish mother, converts to Judaism, or individuals without another religious affiliation qualified as Jews. (22)

Israel, despite its lofty claims of democracy, functions as an ethnocracy, Sand argues. (23) Though he does not deny Israel’s existence, he calls for it to become an open, pluralistic, and democratic state free from the shackles of ethnic, territorial, and mythical claims.

Sand shines a light on Israel’s systemic human rights violations (24) and envisions a future where all Israeli citizens—Jewish or Arab—are treated as equals. (25) His meticulous deconstruction of Zionist myths lays bare the uncomfortable truth about Israel’s foundation and policies.

Evaluation of Shlomo Sand’s Theory

The Khazar hypothesis, which posits that Ashkenazi Jews primarily descend from the Khazars—a Turkic people who converted to Judaism in the 8th century—has been a subject of scholarly debate for decades. While Arthur Koestler’s The Thirteenth Tribe (1976) popularized this theory, it has not gained widespread acceptance in contemporary genetic research. Recent genetic studies indicate that Ashkenazi Jews possess substantial Middle Eastern ancestry, with varying degrees of European admixture. Sand’s assertion that 90% of modern Jews are descendants of the Khazars is not supported by empirical evidence. Although the historical conversion of the Khazars to Judaism is well-documented, its genetic impact on Ashkenazi Jewish populations appears to be negligible. The prevailing scholarly consensus maintains that Ashkenazi Jews trace their origins to ancient Israelite populations, with subsequent admixture from European groups over time.

One of Sand’s most significant contributions lies in his incisive deconstruction of a central tenet of Zionist historiography: the notion of an unbroken, ethnically homogeneous Jewish lineage extending from antiquity to the present. Through rigorous historical analysis, Sand demonstrates that Jewish identity has been shaped by a complex interplay of migration, conversion, and cultural transformation over centuries, rather than by a singular, uninterrupted ethnic continuity. By challenging the nationalist narratives that underpin Zionism, Sand invites readers to critically examine the constructed nature of modern national identities, including that of the Jewish people. His work underscores the fluidity and dynamism of identity formation, offering a counterpoint to essentialist interpretations of Jewish history.

Sand accurately situates the emergence of Jewish nationalism (Zionism) within the broader context of 19th-century European nationalist movements. He highlights the contributions of key figures such as Heinrich Graetz and Moses Hess, who played pivotal roles in shaping modern Jewish historiography and Zionist ideology. Sand argues that Jewish communities expanded significantly through conversion, particularly during the Hellenistic and Roman periods. While there is historical evidence to support the spread of Judaism in the ancient Mediterranean world, conversion was not the sole driver of Jewish demographic growth. Both genetic and historical research suggest a continuity between ancient Israelite populations and modern Jewish communities, alongside evidence of conversions throughout history. Thus, while Sand’s emphasis on conversion as a factor in Jewish history is valid, it represents only one dimension of a more complex demographic and cultural trajectory.

Sand advocates for the transformation of Israel into a pluralistic, democratic state that guarantees equal rights to all citizens, irrespective of ethnicity or religion. This vision aligns with liberal democratic principles and reflects a commitment to inclusivity and equality. However, its realization faces significant political and ideological challenges within the Israeli context. Sand also critiques discriminatory practices in Israel, particularly those affecting Palestinian citizens and other non-Jewish minorities. Issues such as unequal access to resources, restrictions on land ownership, and the implications of the Law of Return have been extensively documented. Israel’s definition as a Jewish state has sparked tension between its Jewish and non-Jewish citizens. Critics claim this framework perpetuates systemic inequalities, while supporters argue it preserves Jewish identity and ensures Jewish population security. Sand’s critique encourages discussion of these competing views, highlighting the tension between national identity and democratic values.

A key strength of Sand’s work is his clear distinction between anti-Zionism and anti-Semitism. While anti-Zionism pertains to criticism of Israeli policies or the Zionist political project, anti-Semitism involves prejudice or discrimination against Jews as a people. This distinction is crucial and is widely recognized in both scholarly and political discourse. By emphasizing this differentiation, Sand contributes to a more precise and informed discussion of contemporary debates surrounding Israel, Zionism, and Jewish identity.

In conclusion, Shlomo Sand’s work offers a provocative and thought-provoking critique of traditional narratives of Jewish history and identity. While some of his claims, such as the Khazar hypothesis, are not supported by current genetic evidence, his broader arguments about the constructed nature of national identities and the historical fluidity of Jewish communities are compelling. His call for a pluralistic and democratic Israel, alongside his critique of systemic inequalities, raises important questions about the future of Israeli society. Ultimately, Sand’s work challenges readers to reconsider entrenched historical narratives and to engage critically with the complexities of identity, nationalism, and democracy.

Bibliography

1) Shlomo Sand, The Invention of the Jewish People, (Tr: Yael Lotan), Verso: New York, 2009

2) Henry Ford, The International Jew, Dearborn Publishing Co: Michigan, 1920-1922

3). John Owen Beaty, Iron Curtain Over America, Wilkinson Pub co: Dallas, 1951

4) Arthur Koestler, The Thirteenth Tribe: The Khazar Empire and Its Heritage, Random House: New York, 1976

5) Shlomo Sand, Op. cit, p. 239-249

6) Shlomo Sand, Op. cit, p.1

7) Shlomo Sand, Op. cit, p.11

8) Shlomo Sand, Op. cit, p.62

9) Shlomo Sand, Op. cit, p.73-77

10) Moses Hess, Rome and Jerusalem: The Last Nationalist Questions, 1862 (Bloch Publishing Co: New York, 1918)

11) Shlomo Sand, Op. cit, p.78-81

12) Shlomo Sand, Op. cit, p.134-136

13) Shlomo Sand, Op. cit, p.150-154

14) Shlomo Sand, Op. cit, p.161-166

15) Shlomo Sand, Op. cit, p.255

16) Shlomo Sand, Op. cit, p.250.

17) Shlomo Sand, Op. cit, p.186

18) Shlomo Sand, Op. cit, p.250-252

19) Shlomo Sand, Op. cit, p.256-265

20) Shlomo Sand, Op. cit, p.286-288

21) Shlomo Sand, Op. cit, p.288-289

22) Shlomo Sand, Op. cit, p.289-290

23) Shlomo Sand, Op. cit, p.307

24) Shlomo Sand, Op. cit, p.304

25) Shlomo Sand, Op. cit, p.309-312

V.A. Mohamad Ashrof is an independent Indian scholar specializing in Islamic humanism.

8 March 2025

Source: countercurrents.org

By Dr Suresh Khairnar

International Women’s Day is celebrated today. But have women really been liberated?

I myself am from the great Maharashtra of Jyotiba Phule and Dr. Baba Saheb Ambedkar. I was born in the so-called 96 clan Maratha community. 70 years ago our family was a joint family in which my father and his three brothers and one of the two sisters got married and lived in her in-laws’ house. My other aunt’s husband left home after marriage and became a sadhu. His whereabouts were never known. Because of this, my elder aunt, who was the eldest, lived with us. She was childless. In this way, apart from the five women in our house, including my father and his three brothers and their children, we had a family of 25-30 people. I am 72 years old since I was born. (25-12-1953) I have never seen the women of our house coming or going in front of men during the day. I have never seen my parents talking to each other. And the five women used to eat whatever was left after all the men and children had eaten. I have never seen that if there was less food for them, they cooked it again and ate it. That is why I have seen all the women of our house physically weak and underweight! In Hinduism, women have been given the status of Annapurna Devi! But all the Annapurna Devis of our house were victims of malnutrition.

We worry about the rights of Muslim women. But I have seen the phenomenon of darkness under the lamp. My village is also included in the history of Satyashodhak Samaj. And with my own eyes, I have never seen the women of the houses of the so-called Satyashodhak leaders moving around in the village during the day. Although this was 70 years ago.

Since we are talking about love jihad, I remembered that there was a Maratha farmer family in our village. Perhaps that gentleman had married a woman of Sunhar caste, so he kept a sonarin (mistress). And a Maratha professor had married a madam named Kulkarni, so he kept a baamniin (mistress). This word was used by the people of the Satya Shodhak village named Malpur.

I have seen in my own house that the women of the house eat only after the men eat first. How do women become victims of malnutrition? This is one of its classic examples. It is my opinion that women suffering from anemia should not be measured by economic issues. This includes women from affluent families as well. On the contrary, people living below the poverty line, all, that is, both men and women, are victims of malnutrition. Because in terms of food and drink, both eat the same food. On the contrary, among the so-called affluent people, women are fed from birth, in their lactation, that they are girls, this feeling is given at every step. For this, the book named ‘Second Sex’ by Simone de Beauvoir is very good and has been written by looking at everything from biology to social, economic, cultural aspects. Every man and woman doing public work needs to read it. And the name is also very appropriate – ‘Second Sex’.

In the early eighties, I started visiting Bihar because of the JP movement. And after visiting the homes of our socialist, Gandhi-Vinoba followers friends there, I saw that food, tea, snacks, everything was being served regularly, but the hands that made them were not visible. Even today, more than fifty years have passed. And we have not met the life partners of some of our friends.

However, the pair of Bihar movement leader Jayaprakash Narayan and his wife Prabhavatiji is similar to Mahatma Gandhi-Kasturba, seen in Bihar’s public life. But if we leave this exception, the condition of women in all the states of Bihar-North India is not very different even today. A socialist leader had once occupied the seat of the country’s Prime Minister for some time. And Mrinal Tai Gore and some women had got the opportunity to visit his ancestral house. Mrinal Tai Gore told me that I was feeling the lack of women in the meeting room except for some outside women, so I took advantage of being a woman and went inside. And deliberately met the women of the house. And from the conversation, it was found that some of them were MA and some were graduates. But they were forbidden to come to the meeting. And you must also be remembering that during his tenure as Prime Minister, his wife was never seen in any public life. Although he was also considered the son of Acharya Narendra Dev of North India and Jayaprakash Narayan ji.

During 1990-91, while working on the aftermath of the Bhagalpur riots, our team had to frequently visit Muslim localities. Because the Muslims had suffered the most destruction. We saw some eyes of women gathering from the windows of the houses to watch us very closely, but we never saw those women as they were veiled. But there was no dearth of hospitality there either. But the hands that cooked the food were not visible.

So once Manisha Banerjee, Vani Sinha, Shamli Khastgir and Veena Aalase, who were among the women who often visited us from Calcutta and Shantiniketan, told me that in a Muslim dominated village named Rajpur, an exclusive meeting of women only was being organized on the roof of someone’s house in the evening. And the responsibility of addressing that meeting was given to me. After climbing the roof, I saw that except Manisha, Banidi, Shyamlidi and Veenaadi, all the other women were wearing burqa. But as soon as I started my address, I saw that almost all the faces covered with burqa were open. I myself felt embarrassed seeing this sight. And later, till it got dark, our meeting continued in a very beautiful and pleasant atmosphere.

Similarly, fifteen years ago, I had gone to Aligarh Muslim University for the ‘Maulana Azad Memorial Speech’. The main speech was delivered by Kennedy Hall. I saw that all the students were sitting in the lower hall and the female students were sitting in the upper gallery. When I looked up, I could see only burqas in the balcony. I had an extra day, so I expressed my desire to see the university. A professor was put on special duty to host me. And after breakfast, he took me around in the university car. He also took me to the tomb of Sir Syed Ahmed Sahib. And when I was returning from there on foot, an elderly gentleman wearing a sherwani came and greeted me very politely and said, “I am the head of the department of Islamic studies, and I am very impressed with your speech yesterday. If you are not busy right now, can you come to our department for a chat for some time?” So I said, “Today I am just having fun in the university. So let me come to your department for some time.” And that’s how I got along with him, and when I stepped into his department, the very small hall was full of students sitting in burqas. And the head said that “Yesterday you told how Muslims of the whole world are being targeted in a planned manner in the name of political Islam. And this is the reason that these girls of our department, who are talking a lot about you after listening to your speech from the gallery yesterday, as soon as I saw you going to the grave of late Sir Syed sahab, I gave you the trouble of taking the trouble of walking here.” I said “It is not a trouble, you have done me a favour. Because for the last 20 years I have been working on the Hindu-Muslim issue after the Bhagalpur riots and in that I especially focus more on women. Because women have to bear the wounds of any riot and war more. And I saw that in the hall here also all the girls had lifted their burqas over their faces. And a very serious debate went on with all the girls for at least more than two hours. Whereas when my host professor sahab told me that during the teaching It is time for your lunch with the staff and to interact with them. Then somewhere the conversation with those girls was going on continuously. All the girls were MA and some of them said that we have to do research later also. That is why they had also taken my email and phone number.

Half of the world’s population is women. But the condition of women is still very unequal, to a greater or lesser extent. And the worst situation is in those parts of the world where the feudal system still prevails. The condition of women there is even worse.

In which the condition of women is still very pitiable in almost all the countries of North India and South-West Asia. The writings of Tehmina Durrani of Pakistan, Taslima Nasreen of Bangladesh and Shirin Abad of Iran show that even today women are treated as slaves.

And in the so-called western culture, as a commodity, the song “Tu cheez badi hai mast mast” is a reflection of the same mentality. Because she is a ‘cheez’ means an object. Which is used. And that is why there is a competition to display their bodies. Who is displayed the most and with how much vulgarity in advertising and fashion shows? Whether it is an advertisement of a man’s underwear or his shaving blade. In that, there is always a woman with minimal clothes.

And the sex trade is its product, it has turned into an industry. I remember (in 1993-94) I got a chance to attend a conference on Human Rights (Huron) in Nepal’s capital Kathmandu. And it was inaugurated by the then Prime Minister Girija Prasad Koirala. And I also got a chance to speak. So in my speech, other speakers were only talking about the excesses of the monarchy, police, and army. So when my turn came I said that “You have made all the speakers before me aware of the numerous reprehensible acts of oppression, atrocities and exploitation being done by the government and the royal family. But I have come from India, and I am from Calcutta. And I am from Maharashtra. I have noticed one thing since my childhood, that from the towns of India to the big cities like Calcutta, Mumbai, Delhi, I have seen 50% of the girls from Nepal in the brothels. And I have not seen anyone even close to Huron thinking about this subject, so it seems a very serious matter to me. And now the Rana regime has ended. And democracy has begun. So I expect from the Honorable Prime Minister that now special efforts should be made to stop the trade of all these women.

So immediately after my speech, Prime Minister Girija Prasad Koirala again came on the mike and announced by taking my name that “I assure Dr. Suresh Khairnar that I will try, especially from my government’s side, to end this practice!” And with an invitation for dinner, Nepal Women’s Organization said that Dr. Suresh, you are the first person we have seen speaking on women’s issues, so we have specially invited you to speak in our organization and after that you have to come for dinner.

Similarly, I have seen women working in every field in Kashmir and Palestine. And they never seemed any less or behind men. During our journey, we have seen women from the Kurdish-dominated triangle of Iraq, Iran and Turkey, which is also called Total Kurdish Area. And we have seen women wearing jeans and T-shirts and fighting, riding vehicles and horses. And we have seen them working in every field of life. And these days they are also taking on the ISIS army. Earlier, these Kurdish women had defeated and pushed back the army of Abu Bakr Baghdadi. So, when I sent them an email of felicitation, they immediately wrote that will you just sit there and do felicitation? Come with us. So I wrote in reply that I have crossed 60.

Dr Suresh Khairnar is Ex. President of Rashtra Sewa Dal

8 March 2025

Source: countercurrents.org

By Quds News Network

Gaza (Quds News Network)- As the world honors Women’s Day, Palestinian women in Gaza endure unimaginable suffering. Israel’s ongoing genocide and humanitarian crises have turned this day of celebration into a reminder of loss and pain for over one million women.

According to Salama Maarouf, head of the Government Media Office in Gaza, thousands of Palestinian women have been killed in Israel’s genocide. He called on the international community to acknowledge the atrocities committed against women by Israel.

The Israeli genocide in Gaza has taken a devastating toll on women. More than 12,316 have been killed, while 13,901 have lost their husbands. Around 17,000 mothers have lost their children, and 50,000 pregnant women have given birth in inhumane conditions. At least 162,000 women suffer from infectious diseases, and 2,000 have lost limbs, forcing them to live with permanent disabilities. Many women also were kidnapped and tortured by the Israeli military, enduring harsh conditions in Israeli detention centers.

Thousands of displaced women in Gaza live in makeshift tents and overcrowded schools. They lack basic necessities like food, water, and medical care as Israel continues to block the entry of humanitarian aid.

International human rights organizations, including Human Rights Watch, have reported that 70% of those killed in Gaza were women and children. The Israeli genocide has also forced two million people, half of them women, to flee their homes.

The United Nations Special Rapporteur on violence against women, Reem Alsalem, told Anadolu Agency that women in Gaza face “inhumane and degrading treatment.” She expressed her “deep concern” over their plight. Alsalem highlighted the hardships faced by women and girls, including Israeli violence, relentless attacks, and blockade. She noted that many field workers “struggle to find words to describe the suffering in Gaza,” calling it “a real hell.”

Alsalem stated that women in Gaza are losing their husbands and that “every hour, two mothers are killed, leaving countless children orphaned.” She condemned the deliberate starvation of people in Gaza and the obstruction of humanitarian aid.

Pregnant women are forced to end their pregnancies under bombardment and without access to healthcare. Many are giving birth without anesthesia or proper medical support in an environment where much of the medical sector has been destroyed. Alsalem also criticized the hateful rhetoric used by Israelis to “justify the killing of Palestinian women.”

She referred to a recent UN report that detailed the suffering of Palestinian civilians, particularly women and children. The report verified accounts of extrajudicial executions of Palestinian women and their children, arbitrary detentions, forced disappearances, and transfers to detention centers in the West Bank and Israel. Healthcare workers, human rights defenders, and children have also been detained in Israeli facilities. Alsalem revealed that at least one child was taken to Israel, calling it a war crime and an act of genocide under the Genocide Convention.

She stated that around 200 women and girls were among 3,000 Palestinians detained in Gaza between October 7 and December 31, 2024. In the West Bank, 147 women and 245 children were among 3,700 detained Palestinians. The report expressed deep concern over the inhumane treatment of Palestinian women and girls, who have faced beatings, bullying, medical neglect, lack of adequate food, and denial of legal representation.

Women in Gaza also face “threats of sexual violence and rape.” Alsalem cited “horrific” reports of Palestinian women being stripped and photographed in humiliating positions, particularly during interrogations. She stated that some women were forced to remove their hijabs during detention and were searched by male officers. Israeli soldiers reportedly shared and circulated these images online, violating the laws of war.

Earlier this month, the United Nations Population Fund expressed “horror” at reports of Palestinian women and girls in Gaza being beaten, detained, humiliated, raped, or executed by Israeli officers. The agency stressed that “women and girls are not targets.”

8 March 2025

Source: countercurrents.org

By Jeffrey D. Sachs

There should be little doubt about how a lasting peace can be established in Ukraine. In April 2022, Russia and Ukraine were on the verge of signing a peace agreement in Istanbul, with the Turkish Government acting as mediator. The U.S. and U.K. talked Ukraine out of signing the agreement, and hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians have since died or been seriously injured. Yet the framework of the Istanbul Process still provides the basis of peace today.

The draft peace agreement (dated April 15, 2022) and the Istanbul Communique (dated March 29, 2022) on which it was based, offered a sensible and straightforward way to end the conflict. It’s true that three years after Ukraine broke off the negotiations, during which time Ukraine has incurred major losses, Ukraine will eventually cede more territory than it would have in April 2022 — yet it will gain the essentials: sovereignty, international security arrangements, and peace.

In the 2022 negotiations, the agreed issues were Ukraine’s permanent neutrality and international security guarantees for Ukraine. The final disposition of the contested territories was to be decided over time, based on negotiations between the parties, during which both sides committed to refrain from using force to change boundaries. Given the current realities, Ukraine will cede Crimea and parts of southern and eastern Ukraine, reflecting the battlefield outcomes of the past three years.

Such an agreement can be signed almost immediately and in fact is likely to be signed in the coming months. As the U.S. is no longer going to underwrite the war, in which Ukraine would suffer yet more casualties, destruction, and loss of territory, Zelensky is recognizing that it’s time to negotiate. In his address to Congress, President Donald Trump quoted Zelensky as saying “Ukraine is ready to come to the negotiating table as soon as possible to bring lasting peace closer.”

The pending issues in April 2022 involved the specifics of security guarantees for Ukraine and the revised boundaries of Ukraine and Russia. The main issue regarding the guarantees involved the role of Russia as a co-guarantor of the agreement. Ukraine insisted that the Western co-guarantors should be able to act with or without Russia’s assent, so as not to give Russia a veto over the Ukraine’s security. Russia sought to avoid a situation where Ukraine and its Western co-guarantors would manipulate the agreement to justify renewed force against Russia. Both sides have a point.

The best resolution, in my view, is to put the security guarantees under the authority of the UN Security Council. This means that the U.S., China, Russia, U.K., and France would all be co-guarantors, together with the rest of the UN Security Council. This would subject the security guarantees to global scrutiny. Yes, Russia could veto a subsequent UN Security Council resolution regarding Ukraine, but it would then face China’s opprobrium and the world’s if Russia were to act arbitrarily in defiance of the will of the rest of the UN.

Regarding the final disposition of borders, some background is very important. Before the violent overthrow of Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych in February 2022, Russia did not make any territorial demands vis-à-vis Ukraine. Yanukovych favored neutrality for Ukraine, opposed NATO membership, and peacefully negotiated with Russia a 20-year lease for Russia’s naval base in Sevastopol, Crimea, home of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet since 1783. After Yanukovych was toppled and replaced by a U.S.-backed, pro-NATO government, Russia moved quickly to retake Crimea, to prevent the naval base from falling into NATO hands. During 2014 to 2021, Russia did not push for annexing any other Ukrainian territory. Russia called for the political autonomy of the ethnic Russian regions of eastern Ukraine (Donetsk and Luhansk) that broke away from Kyiv immediately after Yanukovych was toppled.

The Minsk II agreement was to implement autonomy. The Minsk framework was inspired in part by the autonomy of the ethnic Germany region of South Tyrol in Italy. German Chancellor Angela Merkel knew the South Tyrol experience and viewed it as a precedent for similar autonomy in the Donbas. Unfortunately, Ukraine strongly resisted autonomy for the Donbas, and the U.S. backed Ukraine in rejecting autonomy. Germany and France, which ostensibly were guarantors of Minsk II, stood by silently as the agreement was thrown aside by Ukraine and the United States.

Following six years in which Minsk II was not implemented, during which the U.S.-armed Ukrainian military continued to shell the Donbas in an attempt to subdue and recover the breakaway provinces, Russia recognized Donetsk and Luhansk as independent states on February 21, 2022. The status of Donetsk and Luhansk in the Istanbul process was still to be finalized. Perhaps a return to Minsk II and its actual implementation by Ukraine (recognizing the autonomy of the two regions in the Ukrainian constitution) could have been ultimately agreed. When Ukraine walked away from the negotiating table, alas, the issue was moot. A few months later, on September 30, 2022, Russia annexed the two oblasts as well as two others, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia.

The sad lesson is this. Ukraine’s loss of territory would have been averted entirely but for the violent coup that toppled Yanukovych and brought in a U.S.-backed regime intent on NATO membership. The loss of territory in eastern Ukraine could have been averted had the U.S. pushed Ukraine to implement the UN Security Council-backed Minsk II agreement. The loss of territory in eastern Ukraine could probably have been averted as late as April 2022 in the Istanbul Process, but the U.S. blocked the peace agreement. Now, after 11 years of war since the overthrow of Yanukovych, and as a result of Ukraine’s losses on the battlefield, Ukraine will cede Crimea and other territories of eastern and southern Ukraine in the coming negotiations.

Europe has other interests that it should be negotiating with Russia, notably security for the Baltic States and for European-Russian security arrangements more generally. The Baltic States feel very vulnerable to Russia, understandably so given their history, but they are also gravely and unnecessarily adding to their vulnerability by a stream of repressive measures taken against their ethnic Russian citizenry, including measures to repress the use of the Russian language and measures to cut their citizens’ ties with the Russian Orthodox Church. Baltic state leaders are also provocatively engaging in remarkable Russophobic rhetoric. Ethnic Russians are about 25% of the population of both Estonia and Latvia, and around 5% in Lithuania. Security for the Baltic States should be achieved through security-enhancing measures taken on both sides, including the respect for minority rights of the ethnic Russian populations, and by refraining from vitriolic rhetoric.

The time has arrived for diplomacy that brings collective security to Europe, Ukraine, and Russia. Europe should open direct talks with Russia and should urge Russia and Ukraine to sign a peace agreement based on the March 29 Istanbul Communique and the April 15, 2022 draft peace agreement. Peace in Ukraine should by followed by the creation of a new system of collective security for all of Europe, stretching from Britain to the Urals, and indeed beyond.

Jeffrey D. Sachs is a University Professor and Director of the Center for Sustainable Development at Columbia University, where he directed The Earth Institute from 2002 until 2016. He is also President of the UN Sustainable Development Solutions Network and a commissioner of the UN Broadband Commission for Development.

7 March 2025

Source: countercurrents.org

By Dr. Ramzy Baroud

International law is fighting for relevance. The outcome of this fight is likely to change the entire global political dynamics, which were shaped by World War II and sustained through the selective interpretation of the law by dominant countries.

In principle, international law should have always been relevant, if not paramount, in governing the relationships between all countries, large and small, to resolve conflicts before they turn into outright wars. It should also have worked to prevent a return to an era of exploitation that allowed Western colonialism to practically enslave the global south for hundreds of years.

Unfortunately, international law, which was in theory supposed to reflect global consensus, was hardly dedicated to peace or genuinely invested in the decolonization of the South.

From the invasion of Iraq and Afghanistan to the war on Libya and numerous other examples, past and present, the UN was often used as a platform for the strong to impose their will on the weak. And whenever smaller countries collectively fought back, as the UN General Assembly often does, those with veto power, military, and economic leverage used their advantage to coerce the rest based on the maxim, “might makes right.”

It should therefore hardly be a surprise to see many intellectuals and politicians in the global south arguing that, aside from paying lip service to peace, human rights, and justice, international law has always been irrelevant.

This irrelevance was put on full display through 15 months of a relentless Israeli genocidal war on Gaza that killed and wounded over 160,000 people, a number that, according to several credible medical journals and studies, is expected to dramatically rise.

Yet, when the International Court of Justice (ICJ) opened an investigation of plausible genocide in Gaza on January 26, followed by a decisive ruling on July 19 regarding the illegality of the Israeli occupation of Palestine, the international system began showing a pulse, however faint. The International Criminal Court’s (ICC) arrest warrants were another proof that West-centered legal institutions are capable of change.

The angry American response to all of this was predictable. Washington has been fighting against international accountability for many years. The US Congress under the George W. Bush administration, as early as 2002, passed a law that shielded US soldiers “against criminal prosecution” by the ICC to which the US is not a party.

The so-called Hague Invasion Act authorized the use of military force to rescue American citizens or military personnel detained by the ICC.

Naturally, many of Washington’s measures to pressure, threaten, or punish international institutions have been linked to shielding Israel under various guises.

The global outcry and demands for accountability following Israel’s genocide in Gaza, however, have once again put Western governments on the defensive. For the first time, Israel was facing the kind of scrutiny that rendered it, in many respects, a pariah state.

Instead of reconsidering their approach to Israel, and refraining from feeding the war machine, many Western governments lashed out at civil society, for merely advocating the enforcement of international law. Those targeted included UN-affiliated human rights defenders.

On February 18, German police descended on the Junge Welt venue in Berlin as if they were about to apprehend a notorious criminal. They surrounded the building in full gear, sparking a bizarre drama that should have never taken place in a country that perceives itself as democratic.

The reason behind the security mobilization was none other than Francesca Albanese, an Italian lawyer, an outspoken critic of the Israeli genocide in Gaza, and the current United Nations Special Rapporteur on the occupied Palestinian territories.

If it were not for the UN’s intervention, Albanese could have been arrested simply for demanding that Israel must be held accountable for its crimes against Palestinians.

Germany, however, is not the exception. Other Western powers, lead amongst them the US, are actively taking part in this moral crisis. Washington has taken serious and troubling steps, not just to protect Israel, and itself, from accountability to international law, but to punish the very international institutions, its judges, and officials for daring to question Israel’s behavior.

Indeed, on February 13, the US sanctioned the ICC’s chief prosecutor due to his stance on Israel.

After some hesitance, Karim Khan has done what no other ICC prosecutor had done before: issuing, on November 21, arrest warrants for two Israeli leaders, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and then-Defense Minister Yoav Gallant. They are currently wanted for “crimes against humanity and war crimes”.

The moral crisis deepens when the judges become the accused, as Khan found himself at the receiving end of endless Western media attacks and abuse, in addition to US sanctions.

As disturbing as all of this is, there is a silver lining, specifically an opportunity for the international legal and political system to be fixed based on new standards, justice that applies to all, and accountability that is expected from all.

Those who continue to support Israel have practically disowned international law altogether. The consequences of their decisions are dire. But for the rest of humanity, the Gaza war can be that very opportunity to reconstruct a more equitable world, one that is not molded by the militarily powerful, but by the need to stop senseless killings of innocent children.

Dr. Ramzy Baroud is a journalist, author and the Editor of The Palestine Chronicle.

7 March 2025

Source: countercurrents.org

By Mujeeb Rahman Kinalur

The Ludhiana Jama Masjid, a historic mosque in Punjab, India, holds a special place in the country’s freedom struggle. Built in 1670 by Mughal Emperor Aurangzeb’s governor, Nawab Bahadur Khan, this mosque has stood witness to the tumultuous journey of the Muslim community in Ludhiana.

During my visit to the mosque, I had the privilege of meeting Muhammad Usman Rahman Ludh Yanvi, the current Shahi Imam of Punjab. Despite his youthful age of 44, he exudes a sense of wisdom and authority, honed by his strong political influence and academic credentials as the first Shahi Imam to hold a PhD.

As we sat down to talk, I asked him, “Imam Sahib, can you tell me more about your family’s history and their role in India’s freedom struggle?”

He smiled, “My great-grandfather, Maulana Habibur Rahman Ludhianvi, was a renowned freedom fighter and scholar. He was a close associate of nationalist leaders like Jawaharlal Nehru, Lala Lajpat Rai, and Maulana Abul Kalam Azad. Together, they fought against British colonial rule, advocating for a united and independent India.”

The Imam continued, “My great-grandfather was also a prolific writer and orator. He penned several books on Islamic theology, philosophy, and politics, and was a vocal critic of British colonialism. His speeches and writings inspired a generation of Indians to join the freedom struggle.”

I was intrigued by his story and asked, “Can you tell me more about your great-grandfather’s involvement in the freedom movement?”

The Imam’s eyes lit up with pride, “Maulana Habibur Rahman Ludhianvi was a key figure in the Non-Cooperation Movement and the Quit India Movement. He was arrested several times by the British authorities for his activism, but he never wavered in his commitment to the cause of Indian independence.”

I sensed a deep sense of admiration in the Imam’s voice and asked, “How did your family cope with the partition of India and Pakistan?”

The Imam’s expression turned somber, “The partition was a devastating blow to our family. We were torn apart, with some members migrating to Pakistan while others stayed behind in India. It was a painful separation, one that still resonates with us today.”

As I prepared to leave, I asked him, “What message would you like to convey to the people of India and Pakistan, especially in the context of partition?”

The Imam’s voice was filled with conviction, “Our forefathers fought for a united India, but narrow political interests divided us in the name of religion. I want to tell people that we must look beyond our differences and work towards a more inclusive and harmonious future.”

As I left the mosque, I felt a profound appreciation for the rich history of the Ludhiana Jama Masjid and the enduring legacy of Maulana Habibur Rahman Ludhianvi’s family. The mosque’s ancient walls, bearing witness to centuries of struggle and triumph, stood as a testament to the power of faith, resilience, and the human spirit.

Mujeeb Rahman Kinalur is an author and cultural critic based in Calicut, Kerala.

7 March 2025

Source: countercurrents.org

By Ramakrishnan

Chou En-Lai, Panchen Lama, Mao Tse-Tung and His Holiness the Dalai Lama in Beijing, China in 1955. (Photo courtesy Tibet Images). July 1954 to June 1955 / Dalai Lama Visits China for peace talks and meets with Mao Zedong and other Chinese leaders, including Chou En-Lai, Chu Teh and Deng Xiaoping.

On 27 September 1954, the Dalai Lama was made as a Vice-chairman of the Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress, a post he officially held for years.  The Lama in 1959 went back on all that under US pressures. 

The Seventeen-Point Agreement, on Measures for the Peaceful Liberation of Tibet, was an agreement between the Local Government of Tibet and the Central People’s Government of China. It was signed  on 23 May 1951, in Zhongnanhai, Beijing. The 14th Dalai Lama ratified the agreement in the form of a telegraph on 24 October 1951. Both parties agreed : “The Tibetan people shall unite and drive out invading imperialist forces from Tibet; the Tibetan people shall return to the big family of the motherland – the People’s Republic of China.”

In an appeal made on March 28, 2008, after violent protests by a few of his supporters in Tibet were suppressed,  the Dalai Lama said:  “Chinese brothers and sisters, I assure you I have no desire to seek Tibet’s separation. Nor do I have any wish to drive a wedge between the Tibetan and Chinese peoples.”

The Lama again went back, under US pressures, and joined hands with USA in June-July 2024, when Biden in brazen violation of One China Polcy,  signed “The Resolve Tibet Act.”

***                   ***

Part-1 of  this two-part article was titled : Dalai Lama playing politics explicitly, is given Z-category security cover all over India, even as USA intensifies its interference with  ‘Resolve Tibet Act.’  Tibet has been part of China for centuries, under various feudal dynasties, and America always recognized Tibet as part of China. Tibet continued to be part of China led by the Communist Party of  China (CPC). It is not as if communists newly annexed Tibet. They only abolished centuries-old  serfdom and slavery presided by the Dalai Lama, who himself in 1954-55 accepted the social change.Taiwan regime also does not recognize Tibet’s independence. In this part-2, we see how together, the American super power, and the regional hegemoinst India seek to play a Tibet card, and use Dalai Lama as a pawn in their anti-China politics. Towards this end, they indulge in double-tongue, and violate the “One China Policy”  they had adopted for decades, so as to “contain” China. Modi-led India continues subservience to the global hegemonic strategy of USA in the Trump era.

Dalai Lama aged 89 was flown to USA in June 2024 ostensibly for knee treatment. In fact, he was taken as part of the Great Game by USA: Biden signed the dubious ‘Resolve Tibet Act’ while Dalai Lama was in USA. Both before and after Biden signed it, the US had consultations with the Lama, and with India, violating the One China Policy both adopted. 

A week  after Trump took office, Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri visited Beijing on 26-27 January for a meeting that “reviewed the state of India-China bilateral relations comprehensively and agreed to take certain people-centric steps to stabilize and rebuild ties”, said MEA in a Presser. It was an important, positive but hesitant move after the thaw on LAC. And it is part of a double-tongued policy of Modi-3.0:

A few months after his return from USA, the Lama was taken to Karnataka’s Bylakuppe,the largest  Tibetan settlement outside China, ostensibly for rest and rehabilitation. That is the birth-place of Penpa Tsering, “elected” in May 2021 as  Sikyong (President) of “CTA”, ie., the Tibet Govt-in-exile.There he was visited, on 14 February 2025, by Bandi sanjay, India’s Minister of State for Home Affairs, and Home Minister Dr. G. Parameshwara of  Karnataka. It was the day on which PM Modi met President Trump. He was told he would get Z-category security, all over India! 300 armed security forces were posted in Bylakuppe, a small peaceful township! Discussions took place there about the future of CTA, of  Dalai Lama. And about his “re-incarnation” in which USA and India would play a crucial role, and China should have no role, they insist!

This Part-2 will focus more on the sinister role played by US super power, as part of its Asia Pacific strategy : “Dalai Lama on 2024 Aug 21 had met Biden administration officials in New York City as the India-based Tibetan spiritual leader continues with his effort for Tibetan self-rule,” wion news.com reported August 22. He was told Biden signed the Resolve Tibet Act.

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What’s behind this strategy of “self-rule”? 

A document which is a MUST-READ for anyone who thinks they know, or would like to know, the truth about the Dalai Lama is the US State Department publication ‘Foreign Relations of the United States 1964 – 1968 Volume XXX’.

In late 1958… the CIA trained more Tibetans at Camp Hale with a total of 259 Tibetans trained over five years in tactics representative of guerrilla warfare. The CIA, together with its Indian equivalent the RAW, continued the nefarious games till date. The above is a partly declassified document that showed how US meddled with Tibet. Wikileaks brought out more. The meddling and disinformation about Tibet continued, and would continue,  for decades, which is not a secret.  

“The five-fifty is a win-win strategy as it calls for renewed efforts to seek genuine autonomy for the Tibetan people in the next five years while strategising to strengthen and sustain the Tibetan movement over the next fifty years,” CTA chief Lobsang Sangay had said.

Neither USA nor India is really interested in the welfare of the Tibetan people, who were liberated from a serfdom where slavery was legal until 1950-51, when it was abolished. The Dalai Lama had accepted socialism, and in 1954 Sep, he joined  the Central govt of China as its Vice-Chairman, with Mao as the Chairman. Later, under US pressures, the Buddhist Lama reneged, and led an armed revolt with US aid, arms and training, acknowledged universally as a notorious CIA operation. That involved using child conscripts too.

Vietnam war  had led to the biggest anti-war movement in USA but the “Buddhist” Lama  never condemned the notorious war, nor any later war by USA. Ironically he was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize in 1989. But that is often the norm, the Peace Prize is a political reward by the West: “Throughout his life the Dalai Lama has had close associations with many Nazis, including Bruno Beger..”

“ The (CIA) program ended (for the time being) after President Nixon visited China to establish closer relations in 1972. The Dalai Lama then criticized this decision, saying it proved wholeheartedly that the US never did it to help the people of Tibet.”

“Why this Tibetan cause? “We will continue to engage diplomatically with allies and partners  to advance our US national interests and shared policy priorities,” an American  official said.

Human Rights is a stick to beat China, or any other country…USA which butchered  millions of people for decades  across the world through perpetual wars seeks to work for human rights in China! And NATO and India forces join forces in these crimes.

(for more on this subject, visit..

Tibet , Dalai Lama and USA (30/04/2019)

https://countercurrents.org/2019/04/tibet-dalai-lama-and-usa-ramakrishnan/

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Duplicity of India and the USA

“Dalai Lama on 2024 Aug 21 had met Biden administration officials in New York City as the India-based Tibetan spiritual leader continues with his effort for Tibetan self-rule,” wion news.com reported August 22. The officials told the Lama that President Biden signed the Resolve Tibet Act. The Dalai Lama was invited to USA in the name of knee treatment, but his brain was kept busy and active as he was continuously involved in explicitly political activity:   

Indian media concealed what was to happen in relation to Dalai Lama, who is used as a pawn in US hegemonic, strategic games.

We had asked questions like:

If the Dalai Lama was going to USA, why should a big delegation come all the way to India, meet him here, the Indian PM, the foreign Minister and other officials? What was cooking?  Why the Indian media failed to report the travel plan in advance?  

The US Congressional  bi-partisan delegation, led by Republican McCaul, India’s (‘official’) DD News reported, 20/06/24, traveled to Dharamshala, and presented the Dalai Lama with a framed copy of “The Resolve Tibet Act,” a bipartisan bill passed by the US Congress the previous week to enhance US support for Tibet. It was obviously a political activity, allowed by India, that involved USA and the Dalai Lama. Later the delegation met PM Modi, after they met Foreign Minister Jayshankar, and other (RAW?) officials at Delhi. Presumably they reported what they discussed with the Dalai Lama. Jaishankar appreciated their “strong and continued support for the strategic partnership between India and the US.”

In a brazen act of interference in China’s internal affairs, in their public meetings, the delegation advocated for Tibetan self-determination, and ironically asserted that Chinese interference in Dalai Lama’s succession would not be acceptable. This they did despite China’s multiple warnings before and during the trip, protesting any contact with the Dalai Lama.

***              ***

What is new in the Tibet policy of the super power USA and its junior partner India?

Modi agrees with hegemonist US rather than with Vajpayee

Meddling in China’s affairs is nothing new for the USA. What’s new?

ndtv.com Jun 21, 2024 reported:

The Tibet policy bill was hugely popular in the US Congress and was the “One voice of one nation, showing the US stands behind the people of Tibet,” Michael McCaul told NDTV in an exclusive interview today. “Tibet has never been a part of China. That’s just a lie. The CCP (Chinese Communist Party) sends disinformation,” he added.

The fact is : it is not PRC, the communist China, that devised a new policy for Tibet, which was part of China for centuries, and successive feudal dynasties ruled it.  

This indicates how USA shifted and stepped up its own stance on Tibet, which is recognized by the whole world, including America India and EU, as part of China.

This false and provocative statement by McCaul goes against India’s  Delhi’s official position, as amplified by PM Vajpayee, whose BJP successor is Modi, that Tibet is part of China. Vajpayee signed in June 2003 an MOU : “ India recognized that Tibet (TAR) is part of the territory of China.” In fact it is a continuation of the policy PM Nehru had adopted but tampered with his Forward Policy during late 1950s.

It was explained then that Vajpayee got in return the first-ever recognition by China that Sikkim, a territory India annexed in 1975, is part of India. It is implied that both countries should not re-open Tibet and Sikkim.

PTI June 24, 2003 reported: “ The (Vajpayee) agreement  reiterated that New Delhi would not allow Tibetans to engage in anti-China political activities in India.”

Does India endorse statements made by the US delegation on Indian soil? whether New Delhi continued to adhere to the ‘one-China policy’?

Ministry of external affairs (MEA) spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal replied,  The Wire 2024 June 21 reported:

“The Government of India’s position on His Holiness the Dalai Lama is clear and consistent. He is a revered religious leader and is deeply respected by the people of India. His Holiness is accorded due courtesies and freedom to conduct his religious and spiritual activities,” he said. But what is the practice?

Obviously Modi-led India ditched the policy adopted by PM Vajpayee. US indulges in open anti-China activity, along with CTA and Dalai Lama, from the Indian soil. There is nothing “spiritual” in this. Modi agrees with hegemonist US rather than Vajpayee. And Modi emulates Nehru with his own itch for a new Forward Policy.   

The Wire report significantly added: “The missing phrase was, of course, any mention of political activities…As has been the norm since 2009, the MEA has not publicly reiterated the ‘One China’ policy, but neither has it been repudiated. On the US lawmakers’ remarks, Jaiswal passed the ball. “As regards the statements by the US delegation, I would refer you to the US side and it is for them to answer.”

2009 means the Congress-led UPA was in power. Thus this dubious policy was initiated by that regime. And Congress continues to tail USA. It is competing with BJP in that, and claims to be one-up in its anti-China policy. In fact, Rahul Gandhi often taunts Modi that he is not daring to question China.

“There is not one inch of Indian territory under foreign occupation,” PM Modi declared in an all-party meet after Galwan. Not a bullet was fired along the LAC for over 5 decades, it was officially stated. ‘

Still both Congress and BJP speak as if China is India’s enemy. Like America, Indian riling classes extend bi-partisan support to Dalai Lama, formerly of slave-owning class of old Tibet. And both allied with the USA, allocated around Rs.7 lakh cr per year in the Union Budgets, and India emerged as a big arms buyer, and America, Israel and some in EU have a good share in India’s Defence imports. They need China, and Pakistan too, as ‘enemies’.  The Big Business, particularly Tatas, Ambanis and Adanis are big beneficiaries, even as Defence is opened up for private sector, and for 100 percent FDI. Thus India emulated USA and is emerging as a Military Industrial Complex.  The Defence sector is increasingly a happy hunting ground for  private sector, including foreign capital. Adani too made a big entry with ‘flying’colors. See:

India’s shift to a Defence-oriented economy, with increasing role for the private sector (19/03/2023.)

https://countercurrents.org/2023/03/indias-shift-to-a-defence-oriented-economy-with-increasing-role-for-the-private-sector/

***              ***

Few outside India believe claims that Dalai Lama is a mere religious figure

“NOISY PROTEST: Wherever the Dalai Lama travels these days, devotees of the Dorje Shugden sect accuse him of being a religious bigot. On July 9, 2015  protesters gathered outside the Jacob K. Javits Convention Center where the Dalai Lama was speaking.” – REUTERS/Paul Mooney. There were scores of such protests across Europe and Australia too. The Lama is accused of corruption, and nepotism too. His own brother and sister were CTA officials for long years; they are no more. There were child conscripts of Dalai Lama forces.

Few believe India’s claims on Dalai Lama being a mere religious figure.  Modi himself wrote after meeting the US delegation that just  returned after meeting with the Dalai Lama:

“Had a very good exchange of views with friends from the US Congress in a delegation,” Modi posted on X, formerly Twitter, adding that he “deeply” valued the “strong bipartisan support in advancing the India-US comprehensive global strategic partnership”.  These developments and the India’s election results clouded some important developments.

Even as the new Cabinet (essentially the old core team, including the Foregn, Defence, Finance Ministers) was sworn in on June 9…

“ The newly elected National Democratic Alliance (NDA) government, led by PM Modi, has approved, on Jun 11 2024,  the renaming of 30 places in Tibet, signaling a strong response to China’s nomenclature aggression in Arunachal Pradesh.  The names will be released by the Indian Army and updated on their maps along the Line of Actual Control (LAC), media reported. (business-standard.com)

This move is a direct retort to China’s renaming of 30 places in Arunachal Pradesh in April, Indian media reported. The Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) has maintained that assigning “invented” names does not alter the reality. But it found no other way. Obviously it applies also to India that gave some new names.

The US delegation brazenly violated the international law in all this, and Delhi is complicit in it.  ‘

The US is bent on perpetuating the anti-China political activity, going on for decades on the Indian soil, as is clear from the report by the International Campaign for Tibet, a Dalai Lama outfit, June 19, 2024:

“The Tibetan children living here and in diaspora communities around the world, and those living under the repression of the PRC… they are Tibet’s future, and they give me such great hope…”  There were child conscripts of Dalai Lama forces earlier. And now again.

America-sponsored wars had five lakh children killed in Iraq war alone. Recent Gaza war saw tens of thousands of children killed, orphaned, homeless.

Tencho Gyatso, president of the International Campaign for Tibet, who was in Dharamsala and accompanied the delegation said: “China’s misplaced hope is that the Tibet issue will fade away…This high-level delegation making the lengthy journey to Dharamsala to meet with the Dalai Lama and elected Tibetan leaders shows that the United States will never forget Tibet.” she said.

US House Foreign Affairs Committee chairman McCaul affirmed that “US would not allow China to interfere with Dalai Lama’s succession”. (Times of India, June 20.). What business has America has in this affair? And how can India allow this, and tail USA on all this? 

The double-tongued policy Modi regime has been rightly criticized earlier by many like ..

Suhasini Haidar …@suhasinih (The Diplomatic Affairs Editor, The Hindu)

“In one month, our govt has issued statements on events in US (capitol riots), Sri Lanka (devolution), Pakistan (Temple attack) etc…, and also told half a dozen countries they have no right to comment on Indian “internal matters” (farmers protests, CAA,J&K etc)..”

But everyone can see India hosting for decades a  Tibetan “government-in-exile,” and its renewed political activity, now very brazen. It goes against all cannons of international law, against UN Charter, even as India backs USA harping on a “rules-based world order,” an euphemism for a hegemonism of USA. 

Reflecting the changed view, and a further shift in policy, of the Indian Establishment, Times of India 2024 June 21, said in its editorial: “ India has stopped referring to the One China policy for years…New Delhi should have no hesitation in backing the Tibetan cause. India needs  leverage.  And the Tibet issue is a big one.”  That reflects the mind of Indian establishment, though Delhi for now is engaged in duplicity.

China justifiably protested brazen interference by USA on the Indian soil.

And now one can see the reason behind China’s ire:

“It’s known by all that the 14th Dalai Lama is not a pure religious figure, but a political exile engaged in anti-China separatist activities under the cloak of religion,” Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Lin Jian said. He called on Washington “to fully recognise the anti-China separatist nature of the Dalai group, honour the commitments the US has made to China” on issues related to “Xizang” – the Chinese name for Tibet. China urged the US to “have no contact with the Dalai group in any form, and stop sending the wrong signal to the world.”

Lin said: “China will take resolute measures to firmly defend its sovereignty, security and development interests.” (19 Jun 2024,SCMP).

Observers recalled Pelosi’s 2022 visit as speaker to Taiwan prompted Beijing to suspend all cooperation with Washington for months. This visit could complicate Biden’s recent attempts to stabilise ties with China.

In fact, “Growing US-India cooperation could have been one of the triggers of the border clashes in the first place,” as said by an American expert. With such brazen violations, how can Modi-led India hope to mend its relations with China?

***                     ***

New Elements in the US Policy on Tibet

Bill S.138, titled “Promoting a Resolution to the Tibet-China Conflict Act”, is the Senate version of the bipartisan House bill HR. 533, which the House passed earlier on with a strong majority. Later it passed “The Resolve Tibet Act.” We shall now discuss its significance.

In a paper ORF published on Sep 03, 2024, Sujan R. Chinoy, Director General of the Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (MP-IDSA), New Delhi since 2019,  explained:

“The spirit of this law, ‘Promoting a Resolution to the Tibet-China Dispute Act’, stands in contrast to historical US recognition of Tibet as a part of China.” 

A career diplomat from 1981-2018 , Chinoy held several important diplomatic assignments, and is a specialist on China, East Asia etc; he anchored negotiations and developed confidence-building measures (CBMs) with China on the boundary issue from 1996-2000. On deputation to the National Security Council Secretariat (NSCS) from 2008-2012, he wrote:

“The Promoting a Resolution to the Tibet-China Dispute Act directly refers to a “dispute” between Tibet and China, implying that they are two distinct geographical and political entities. This is different from the relatively restrained language used in the 2002, 2018, and 2020 Acts. Additionally, the latest legislation focuses on exerting pressure on China to have a meaningful dialogue with the representatives of the Dalai Lama without the usual preconditions imposed by China, such as acceptance by the Dalai Lama that Tibet has always been a part of China.

“ Meanwhile, the Dalai Lama has been ready to reconcile to the fact that Tibet is (today) part of China. He has also declared that he is not seeking independence for Tibet and that he is committed to arriving at a negotiated settlement.”

“ Clause 5 of Section 2 [Findings of US Congress] of the Promoting a Resolution to the Tibet-China Dispute Act states that the “US government has never taken the position that Tibet was a part of China since ancient times.”

The duplicity and double-tongued policy is made clear:

“ However, this reaffirmation does nothing to question the US position, shared by the global community, that Tibet is today part of China. The protection of human rights in Tibet and its right to self-determination have been revived in the new Act…The Act, like its predecessors, covers not just the Tibet Autonomous Region but also the areas of Greater Tibet, which have long since been carved and merged with neighbouring Chinese provinces such as Gansu, Qinghai, Sichuan, and Yunnan.”

This analysis by Ambani-funded ORF, a pro-govt think-tank, notably comes after the latest parleys and developments involving India, America and the Dalai Lama. Modi-3.0 is committed to these policies, notwithstanding some thaw regarding the LAC. The developments of Bylakuppe, and provision of Z-category security, are part of these policies of intervention in China’s affairs.

They are a hurdle to the resolution of India-China disputes, including on LAC. Trump is re-orienting America’s foreign policies, but unlike with Russia, he is hostile towards China. India’s Foreign Minister Jayshankar already had several rounds of parleys with the Trump Presidency.  

Alka Acharya JNU Professor, School of International Studies, and former director, Institute of Chinese Studies, Delhi, had warned in March 2018:

“For this one so-called ‘Tibet card’ that we appear to hold, the Chinese have six in their hand.”  And that is all the more dangerous given the volatile and inflammable situation in North-east, aggravated by the divisive politics of the sangh pariwar.

***                      ***

India must give up its anti-China alliance with USA, more so in Trump era

“With an undisguised glee, Uncle Sam is nudging India into further spats with China.” Illustration: GT. “India should be wary of the West’s trap of “China vs. India” narrative,” commented Global Times, Apr 26, 2023, in a different context.

“India has once again indicated that it is willing to gradually ramp up pressure on issues like Tibet and Taiwan,” said Harsh Pant, an international relations professor at King’s College London. India’s foreign policy towards China, he said, has been undergoing a “gradual calibrated change” since 2020 Galwan clash. Since then, multiple rounds of diplomatic and military-level talks have failed to normalise relations. Both nations maintain a significant number of troops and advanced weaponry along the border.

Beijing had said that the border dispute was “not the entirety” of its relations with New Delhi, calling for steady ties. But India, unlike in the past, won’t agree with that.

Michael Kugelman, Wilson Centre, USA, said that it seemed as though India was “trying to signal that it can use its relationship with the US as leverage”. Modi’s hosting of the delegation was a “very explicit signal”, he said, that New Delhi was “fully” behind the delegation’s audience with the Dalai Lama, and that it wasn’t just “politely” facilitating it.  “India appears more risk tolerant now when it comes to how far it’s willing to go with pushing the Tibet issue,” Kugelman said.

While US-India security relations are deeper than ever before, Kugelman said, the US delegation’s meeting with the Dalai Lama could have consequences along the “Line of Actual Control” (LAC), the disputed 3,000-km (1,864 miles) Himalayan border, where China may react..

“That’s a real risk and will be something to watch,” he said, suggesting that the growing US-India cooperation could have been one of the triggers of the border clashes in the first place.

Recalling the extensive military exercises China conducted around Taiwan after Pelosi’s visit to Taipei in 2022, Kugelman said that her latest trip could give Beijing a “pretext to try to push back in a big way against India or the US or their allies”.

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/article/3267435/us-lawmakers-meeting-modi-after-dalai-lama-signals-new-delhi-shift-china-analysts

That was all in the Biden era.

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India and China in Trump era now agreed “to create better awareness about each other and restore mutual trust and confidence”

A week  after Trump took office, Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri visited Beijing on 26-27 January for a meeting that “reviewed the state of India-China bilateral relations comprehensively and agreed to take certain people-centric steps to stabilize and rebuild ties”, said MEA in a Presser.  It was an important, positive but hesitant move after the thaw on LAC.

 Despite claims of personal rapport Modi has with Trump, nothing can be taken for granted. It is already evident in immigrants’ issue and tariff hikes. Trump’s policy is full of uncertainties,even for EU and NATO. India is very low on  Trump’s priorities.

The MEA Presser said:

“ 4. The two sides recognize that 2025, being the 75th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between India and China, should be utilized to redouble public diplomacy efforts to create better awareness about each other and restore mutual trust and confidence among the public. The two sides will conduct a number of commemorative activities to mark this anniversary.”

The other points include:

“ 2. In this context, the two sides decided to resume the Kailash Mansarovar Yatra in the summer of 2025…They also agreed to hold an early meeting of the India-China Expert Level Mechanism to discuss resumption of provision of hydrological data and other cooperation pertaining to trans-border rivers.

• The two sides agreed to take appropriate measures to further promote and facilitate people-to-people exchanges, including media and think-tank interactions. They agreed in principle to resume direct air services between the two countries..

5. The two sides took stock of the extant mechanisms for functional exchanges. It was agreed to resume these dialogues step by step and to utilize them to address each other’s priority areas of interest and concern. Specific concerns in the economic and  trade areas were discussed with a view to resolving these issues and promoting long-term policy transparency and predictability.

• During his visit, Foreign Secretary called on Member of the Politburo of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China, Director of the Office of Central Commission of Foreign Affairs and Foreign Minister H.E. Mr. Wang Yi, and Minister of the International Department of the Communist Party of China H.E. Mr. Liu Jianchao.

https://www.mea.gov.in/press-releases.htm?dtl/38946/Visit_of_Foreign_Secretary_to_China

Vikram Misri also met Liu Jianchao, Head of the International Department of the Communist Party of China Central Committee, India Today reported: The two officials discussed the implementation of the consensus over the Ladakh border deal, ways to strengthen dialogue, and issues of regional and international concern, according to statements from both sides. It is significant in the Trump era when both India and China are facing tariff wars and other threats.

Similar agreement was arrived at Mamallapuram summit between Modi and Xi jinping in October 2019. They had the decided to celebrate that whole year. India China bilateral trade surged despite Delhi’s call to “Boycott China goods.”

But the anti-China lobbies in the Govt, driven by USA, had derailed all that. The alibi was the much-blown up Galwan with a few casualties. Thousands died in IPKF ops in Srilanka, but that did not hurdle bilateral relations.

After Galwan PM Modi officially declared “ not an inch of our land is under occupation.” And it was said “not a single bullet was fired along the LAC  over  4-5 decades, despite the LAC dispute.”

When that is the case, why the hostile propaganda in the media as if China is India’s enemy? Why escalating the military build-up along LAC?

 India and China, should redouble public diplomacy efforts to create better awareness about each other and restore mutual trust and confidence among the public. People-to-people exchanges, including media and think-tank interactions, must be intensified. They should not be allowed to be derailed under pressures from Trump or the pro-US lobbies entrenched in the Indian State and polity.  

***                       ***

See for more on Tibet Dalai Lama and related issues, by the author…

Indian Hawks Join Hands With US Vultures Against China ( June 16, 2020).

https://countercurrents.org/2020/06/indian-hawks-join-hands-with-us-vultures-against-china/)

Dalai Lama turns 85 today and 60 years of that he served US imperialism, operating from Indian soil, playing havoc with India-China Relations (06/07/2020)

https://countercurrents.org/2020/07/dalai-lama-turns-85-today

Disinformation, a key instrument of  India’s foreign policy in relation to China and Pakistan? (01/07/2023)

https://countercurrents.org/2023/07/disinformation-a-key-instrument-of-indias-foreign-policy-in-relation-to-china-and-pakistan

Ramakrishnan is a political observer, who contributed to countercurrents.org.

6 March 2025

Source: countercurrents.org

By Vijay Prashad

The whole thing is a fiasco. The theatrical drama in the White House’s Oval Office triggered a series of predictable responses around the world. Outrage at US President Donald Trump for his rudeness and ridicule for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy were some of the reactions. Then, the failure of French President Emmanuel Macron to create a European agreement with the United Kingdom’s Keir Starmer and Zelenskyy revealed the absolute dead ends that confront this exhausted war in Ukraine. The question that these discussions provoke is simple: is there an exit for this war?

Permanent War

If the war aims of Zelenskyy and his European partners are to weaken Russia or to overthrow the government of Vladimir Putin, then this war might either go on forever or accelerate into a dangerous nuclear scenario. Opinion polls in Russia show that Putin’s approval rating is now at 87%. Even with a mountain of salt, this is far higher than the approval rating in France for Macron. With Russia’s economy resilient during this war, it is unlikely that it will be further weakened with the continuation of hostilities. What the evidence shows, however, is that Europe’s economy is suffering from war inflation that has not been reduced. If this war is to continue, Macron said, then European states would have to increase their military spending to 3% or 3.5% of their GDP. This would further damage the living situation of most Europeans. Would young, working-class Europeans be willing to go and man the dangerous frontline in Ukraine on behalf of a war aim (weakening Russia) that is impossible? It is unlikely. (There is a separate cruelty of middle-class Ukrainians fleeing the country for Western Europe and then working-class Western Europeans being asked to come and defend that country for them).

A permanent war will lead to unnecessary loss of life in Ukraine and to a permanent economic crisis in Europe. It is also unlikely because the United States will not financially and militarily back such a war indefinitely, resulting in the collapse of any long-term European commitment to Ukraine.

The Korean Solution

If neither Ukraine nor Russia are willing to move to a ceasefire and then a negotiated settlement (which would include security guarantees for all sides), then there is the possibility that the current frontline that stretches from northern to eastern Ukraine will become a permanent Demilitarized Zone (DMZ). Ukraine would thereby be divided indefinitely with an immense waste of social wealth to maintain a perpetual frontline. This is the most likely scenario, although it might not be palatable for Europeans to have a Korea within their continent.

The South Korean military maintains 600,000 troops along the 38th Parallel, alongside almost 30,000 US troops. Much the same is the situation in the north. Billions of dollars are spent annually on surveillance and logistics for over 900 square miles of territory that is not available for economic use. Europe would have to underwrite this Korean solution for Ukraine for eternity (just as the United States provides guarantees and funds to South Korea, and China does the same for North Korea).

A Security Consortium

The Helsinki Process that emerged to bring the US and USSR into negotiations in 1975 and that formed the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) has played almost no role for peace in the war on Ukraine.

The only interlocutors that have been given permission to speak about the war in Ukraine on behalf of Zelenskyy have been the United States, the Western European leaders, the leaders of the European Union (EU), and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). Leaders from Europe’s east – apart from those who are integrated into the NATO-EU – have been either silent or told that their opinions do not matter. But it is these eastern European countries that share with Ukraine the fact of having a border with Russia, and it is these countries that most need to form a security consortium that includes Russia and provides mutual guarantees. Those countries that directly share a border with Russia’s west are – from north to south – Norway, Finland, Estonia, Latvia, Belarus, Ukraine, Georgia, and Azerbaijan (Lithuania and Poland share a border with the Kaliningrad Oblast, which is a Russian exclave on the Baltic Sea). Three of them (Finland, Estonia, and Latvia) are members of NATO and of the EU, while one of them (Norway) is a NATO member but not in the EU.

Would it be possible for these eight countries to call a conference with Russia on the broader issues of security rather than the narrow issue of Ukraine? That three countries that border Russia are already NATO members (one of them, Norway, was a founding member in 1949) suggests that the problems in Ukraine are separate from NATO membership itself. Rather, they stem from anxiety about a border line created in a hurry when the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991 (this impacts Estonia, Latvia, Belarus, Ukraine, Georgia, and Azerbaijan, but not Norway and Finland, which were not part of the Soviet Union).

In the early 1980s, former Swedish Prime Minister Olof Palme chaired the Independent Commission on Disarmament and Security Issues, whose 1982 report Common Security: A Programme for Disarmament made the case that ‘The task of diplomacy is to limit, split, and subdivide conflicts, not to generalize and aggregate them’. In other words, all conflicts cannot be settled at the same time. A ceasefire is good in itself; the issues to resolve need to be separated, and those that are easier dealt with first to build confidence. To bundle all issues into one problem makes a dispute intractable.

The countries that border each other, including those that border Russia to its south and east, must live next to each other. They cannot lift themselves out of their geography and go elsewhere. Ukraine cannot be relocated to France. It must remain beside Russia. In that case, these countries need to find a way to build trust.

To begin with, the assertion that one cannot trust a neighbour is the worst way to build confidence between the peoples of neighbouring countries. Neither the EU nor NATO (without full US military backing) can subordinate Russia and force it to bow before Ukraine. A British cabinet minister said last year that his country would last only six months in a full-scale war with Russia. Meanwhile, a Kiel Institute for the World Economy report suggests that Germany is spending its money buying weapons but does not have a standing army capable of self-defence, let alone winning an offensive war against Russia. Europe, without the United States, is a shadow.

It would behove all parties if a country that borders Russia calls for such a security consortium to be built and if it is able to get guarantees from NATO not to expand further eastward and from Russia to draw back its military from the border regions. There are long relations among these countries, with families on both sides of the border. Any lessened tension in general is good for humanity, and if such a manoeuvre will lead to peace in Ukraine, that would be far better than a permanent scar on this part of the European continent.

Vijay Prashad is an Indian historian, editor, and journalist. He is a writing fellow and chief correspondent at Globetrotter.

6 March 2025

Source: countercurrents.org

By Quds News Network

Gaza (Quds News Network)- Despite the widespread destruction from Israel’s 15-month assault, over 150,000 students have enrolled in 165 government-run schools across Gaza, following the Ministry of Education’s launch of a compressed academic year on February 23.

More than half of these schools are forced to operate in three shifts daily due to the severe destruction caused by Israel’s assault, according to the UN’s humanitarian agency, OCHA.

[https://twitter.com/QudsNen/status/1893557802494288066]

Over 7,000 teachers have been mobilised to support the disrupted education system, with 30 schools in northern Gaza, 52 in Deir al-Balah, 57 in Khan Younis, and 26 in Rafah.

[https://twitter.com/UNOCHA/status/1897282952540905654]

Gaza Education

Despite efforts to restore education, Israel’s blockade and the destruction of infrastructure continue to deny Gaza’s children their basic right to learn.

[https://twitter.com/QudsNen/status/1894857757339304029]

Tala, an 8th-grade student, returned to school after losing one of her best friends in the Israeli assault.

“Heba was my best friend. She was killed in an Israeli attack on her family’s home last year. She always sat next to me in class, but now I’m sitting here without her,” Tala said, noting that several of her classmates were also killed.

According to Gaza’s Government Media Office, over 15,000 school-age children have been killed, along with more than 800 workers in the public education sector during the Israeli assault which led to a disruption of formal education for two consecutive academic years, lasting a total of 300 days.

Ahmed Musleh, a 10th-grade student at a central Gaza school, said they are surrounded by rubble with no furniture, textbooks, or devices available.

“We depend on the teacher’s explanations. The students suffer a lot because we have no access to textbooks or devices. The prices of paper and even pens are expensive because the crossings are closed by the Israeli occupation, and such materials aren’t getting through,” he said.

Israel’s direct targeting of school and educational buildings has caused significant damage to 95% of these structures. Furthermore, 85% of them are no longer operational due to complete or partial destruction, along with the loss of all resources, including school and administrative furniture, textbooks, devices, and equipment, the Office stated.

“Usually, this would be a day of celebration—seeing the children in their new uniforms and heading to school. Today, all we hope for is that the war ends and the ceasefire continues before we lose any one of them,” the mother of Tala told Quds News Network.

6 March 2025

Source: countercurrents.org

By Nick Beams

US President Trump’s imposition of a 25 percent tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico, which came into effect on Tuesday, has sent a shock wave through the global economy as the realisation grows that the entire framework of economic and trade relations set in place after World War II has disintegrated.

In addition to the tariffs imposed on Canada and Mexico, the US added another 10 percent to tariffs against China, on top of the 10 percent that had earlier been enacted.

China has retaliated with a 15 percent tariff on American agricultural products including chicken, wheat, corn and cotton, as well as a 10 percent tariff on sorghum, fruits, vegetables and dairy products.

Beijing has added 10 US companies to the so-called “unreliable entity list,” meaning they are prohibited from exporting or importing in China or making new investments. It also made 15 US entities subject to an export control list.

Canada has responded with an immediate 25 percent on $21 billion worth of US imports, to be followed by a tariff on around $90 billion worth in three weeks’ time.

The tariff measures were initially unveiled by Trump shortly after his inauguration on the grounds that Canada was not doing enough to halt the flow of the drug fentanyl into the US. But this was only a pretext for the expansionist aims of the US as Canadian prime minister Justin Trudeau has now blurted out.

At a press conference on Tuesday, he said the issue of cross-border trafficking of fentanyl was “completely bogus, completely unjustified, completely false.” What Trump really wanted to do was to trigger “the total collapse of the Canadian economy because that would make it easier to annex us.” Earlier Trudeau had told a meeting of business leaders that Trump’s focus on critical minerals meant his annexation threat was a “real thing.”

It is a sure sign of the economic and geopolitical breakdown. What might have been said behind closed doors is now out in the open, as imperialist leaders publicly accuse each of lying in order to cover up their real agenda.

The threat to the Canadian and Mexican economies is a very real one. More than 80 percent of the exports of both countries go to the US. According to an analysis reported by the Wall Street Journal, Canada could face a contraction of up to 5 percent of GDP and Mexico 3 percent.

Europe is also directly in the firing line with Trump having threatened to impose tariffs of 25 percent, after denouncing the European Union as an organisation set up to “screw” the US.

In his address to the joint session of Congress on Tuesday, Trump emphasised that the imposition of “reciprocal tariffs” would go ahead after the delivery of a report on April 2. The planned measures go far beyond tariffs and will include retaliation for any measures, such as the European value-added tax and regulations on the tech giants, which the US considers inimical to the profits of its corporations.

After lobbying by major US auto companies, Trump has given them a one-month reprieve on the Mexico-Canada tariff, which his press secretary Karoline Leavitt said was aimed at ensuring they were not “at an economic disadvantage.” How a one-month carve-out would assist the auto firms in their planning operations that extend over years she did not say.

Even before the one-month delay, there have been warnings that whatever the twists and turns in the future, the damage has already been done.

Matthew Holmes, executive vice-president in the Canadian Chamber of Commerce, told the Journal: “Businesses just can’t switch their whole model to avoid tariffs and then go back again, depending on what politicians decide on any given day.”

The Trump trade war not only threatens every economy in the world but also the US itself. One indication is the fall in share values on Wall Street, which has wiped out all the gains made since the Trump election victory in November. So far, a total of around $3.4 trillion has been wiped off market capitalisation.

Warnings about the impact of tariffs have been coming thick and fast. The farming sector is one of the first to be hit, as industry representatives denounce the tariff measures.

“Contrary to what the president thinks, this means nothing but pain,” Aaron Lehman, head of the Iowa Farmers Union, told the Financial Times.

Other comments to the FT were in the same vein. Caleb Ragland, president of the American Soybean Association, said farmers were “frustrated.” Tariffs were not something to be taken lightly and to “have fun” with, but hit businesses in the wallet. They have rocked a “core tenet on which our trading relations are built, and that is reliability.”

Referring to Trump’s election claims that he would bring down prices and grow the economy—part of the snake oil claims that induced millions of people to vote for him out of anger and disgust with the Democrats—Michael Hanson, a spokesperson for the Retail Industry Leaders Association, said: “Tariffs on Canada and Mexico put those goals in serious jeopardy and risk destabilising the North American economy.”

The New York Times has reported that “anxious business groups” were holding meetings to determine their responses, with some even considering a legal challenge to the national security authority under which Trump has imposed them.

Kathy Bostjancic, chief economist at the banking and financial forum Nationwide, has said that if the tariffs were maintained and retaliation followed, economic growth would be at least one percentage point lower in 2025 than it had been in 2024, coming in at just 1.5 percent.

The outlook for the American economy appears to be rapidly worsening. Last Friday, the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s running estimate of GDP growth forecast a contraction of 1.5 percent in the first quarter. In an estimate published on Monday, that contraction had risen to 2.8 percent.

US businesses are reporting significant declines in new orders and employment. The ISM purchasing manufacturers index for February dropped to 50.3 from 50.9 the previous month. The level of 50 marks the boundary between expansion and contraction. Other indexes pointed to a steep decline in new orders, falling from 55.1 to 48.6.

The prospect of a significant downturn in the US economy is also reflected in the bond market. Yields (interest rates) on the 10-year government bond have been falling.

Normally they could be expected to rise in the expectation by investors that the Federal Reserve would not be cutting rates because of inflationary pressures caused by the tariff hikes, which, contrary to Trump’s lying claims that they are paid for by foreigners, hit consumers and businesses.

But market sentiment is shifting rapidly. At the beginning of the year, there was an expectation that there would only be one interest rate cut this year. But now there is an expectation of three cuts starting in June.

This is because investors fear that Trump’s tariff measures will push the economy towards a recession in which the Fed will feel the need to cut rates. One of the concerns of the Fed, though this is not mentioned openly, is that a recession could set off a sharp fall on Wall Street and lead to financial turmoil.

As Emmanuel Cau, an analyst at the Barclay’s bank, told the FT: “Investors have started to really fear Trump’s policies. If there is a growth problem in the US, that will be hard to ignore … People are nervous, with some even starting to fear a recession.”

6 March 2025

Source: countercurrents.org